Wednesday, October 19, 2011

Here's a look at the GFS 850 mb map, an area where frozen precipitation can be found before reaching the surface.



















The area of 0 degrees C line curls up into central and eastern KY by Thursday morning. However, surface temperatures are expected to stay well above freezing. The amount of moisture still prevalent at the 850 mb level only provides a minimal chance at any wet snowflakes or sleet pellets mixing in at the surface. A little better chance of this at the higher elevations of far east Kentucky, though. Still, not a big issue, only a tease that winter is just around the corner.

During the last hour, I noticed a very large difference in barometric pressure across Kentucky. At 4pm, Covington's barometric reading was at 29.33" while Paducah in western Kentucky's reading was 29.67". Their winds are already gusting to near 30 mph. The same can be said also in Missouri.

During the past hour, the lowest pressure reading that I found was 29.20" at Zanesville OH. That equates to 989 mb. Another reason to expect winds to approach 40 mph as high pressure tries to build in from the west, feeding into the deepening Low.

Expect winds to increase here later tonight especially and on into the day tomorrow. Gusts could top 40 mph at times as the Low continues to deepen to our east and northeast. Wind chill values will be falling perhaps into the 20's and 30's at times. Brrr.

Frost is still looking likely for Saturday morning.

Later in my next post, I'll be looking at the next major weather system to be impacting the region. Already talk of another blast of cold air. We'll break it down and see what's chillin'.

MS

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