Working On the Winter Weather Forecast PART 2 - October/November 2000 Data

In part 1, I discussed the data from the Jan/Feb 2000 Winter, primarily because we were in the grips of an impressive La Nina then. You can review the data from accessing the archived posts of September 17 2011.

However, you may be asking, what role would this play in our upcoming winter of 2011/2012?

I introduced the early 2000 data to show what impact a strong La Nina produced. Seemingly, the data correlated somewhat better than I imagined with a typically strong La Nina. Later, though, that La Nina began to fade, but did return later in the year. This second La Nina would not be as strong as the previous one. Therefore, one would expect that the data correlation would not be as favorable.

In my previous post discussion about the Winter Weather Forecast for 2011/2012, I mentioned how I would research the October 2000 data in order to determine any specific weather pattern that could help figure out how the winter of 2001 and La Nina's impacts would unfold. Then, hopefully, this would shed some light on how winter of 2011/2012 will  be.

Well, here's what I found.

First, the latter part of Summer 2000 saw above normal temperatures for our region. Sound familiar(FF to 2011)? Then, the month of September featured below normal readings. Looks like we'll finish September on a below normal basis as well. October saw temperatures above normal for much of the central U.S., including Kentucky. So far, the Climate Prediction Center is forecasting above normal readings for much of the central U.S for our October 2011. 

However, I really could not find a specific weather pattern change that could help us figure out how the upcoming winter of 2001 would fare...at least in October. There were some subtle introductions of colder air pouring into the northern parts of the Intermountain West region by the end of the month, but not the definitive, season-altering pattern shift (what I like to call SAPS) that I wanted to see.

Therefore, I needed data from the month of November. Finally, by the 6th of the month, a significant display of cold air began intruding the far northern areas of the United States via the Arctic regions. Our part of the country actually held onto the warmer air for a while. But, by the 9th of the month, it was obvious, our warm readings wouldn't make a return.

We weren't the only ones experiencing the cold stuff...Check out this graphic for November's temperatures:

November 2000 proved to be the 2nd coolest month on record for the United States.

As far as precipitation, first, I wanted to show this map of the 'snow cover anomaly map'. This shows where much of the country experienced snowfall amounts not normally seen like this during the month of November:

Overall, precipitation would prove to be greatest in the midsection of the country for the month.

Again, I just want to remind readers that I'm NOT suggesting this is how weather events will work out for our winter of 2011/2012. La Nina II was really just getting going by then. Also, all weather is interrelated. I try and look at how the rest of the globe was faring, again, hoping to find trends as to how our winter MIGHT go.

Here's a look at what I'm talking about...

With this snow cover anomaly map for Europe and Asia, can you tell where areas were perhaps warmer and colder than normal?

Let's see how you did. Here's the surface temperature map. Some data may be missing, but you get the picture...

For those of you who are interested in numbers for other variables that could contribute to winter weather, here is a look at those numbers...for November 2000.

NAO  (-0.92)

PNA   0.74

AMO (-0.015)

PDO (-0.53)

ENSO Oct/Nov/Dec (-0.6) La Nina conditions

AO (-1.581)

In my next segment, I will be looking at how the rest of the winter 2000/2001 progressed based on the SAPS test, La Nina conditions, and the other variables.

You can also look at some of the data I've been looking at by visiting the HPC website's 'Daily Weather Map' section HERE.

MS