Looking Ahead to October....

The month of October is traditionally a pivotal month meteorologically. Our first frost normally occurs during this time, ultimately leading to a possible end to the growing season by the end of the month when a killing frost can occur.

Also, as I have stated in my Working On the Winter Weather Forecast segments, October is a month to start looking for changing weather patterns that may provide a precursor of what to expect for our upcoming winter.

As you may have been aware, much of Kentucky was experiencing abnormally dry conditions and even moderate drought conditions in some locations.

Date	None	D0-D4	D1-D4	D2-D4	D3-D4	D4
09/27/11	86.72	13.28	0.04	0.00	0.00	0.00
09/20/11	50.30	49.70	10.65	0.00	0.00	0.00
09/13/11	50.30	49.70	16.14	0.00	0.00	0.00
09/06/11	52.21	47.79	16.55	0.00	0.00	0.00
08/30/11	28.83	71.17	31.02	4.27	0.00	0.00
08/23/11	39.89	60.11	11.60	0.00	0.00	0.00
08/16/11	45.08	54.92	5.77	0.00	0.00	0.00
08/09/11	83.18	16.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
08/02/11	83.18	16.82	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00
07/26/11	92.86	7.14	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00

The most significant change in this chart is the change in drought status from September 20 to September 27. Notice that nearly half of the state was experiencing at least abnormally dry conditions during the September 20 report. As of the September 27 report, over 86% of the state had been classified as drought-free.

Here is a map of those of us still having abnormally dry conditions...

The CPC has this to say about the 6-10 day temperature outlook. This will follow our below normal readings coming up soon...

This is for Oct 5-9: above normal for us.

And this for its 6-10 day precipitation outlook, for the same October 5-9 period: below normal for us.

This should get us through the first 10 days of the month. Not too bad, really.

For the near term, I'm still questioning whether the bulk of the cold air will be as bad here in Louisville as it will be just to our east. I do see high temps struggling to get out of the 50's either Saturday or Sunday. Yet, cloud cover may keep our overnight lows from bottoming out too much, perhaps in the 42-46 range.

However, to our east, if skies clear enough, frost will become an issue for them, with temps reaching the mid to upper 30's. Best chance of this is across far eastern Kentucky. Even with cloud cover, temps may still dip into the upper 30's in these areas.

More updates coming later or as they become available.

MS