How to Make Sense of the Models

Welcome to the blog. Today in my journal, I thought we would look at the best way to read the models that most weather gurus use to establish a personal forecast.


Since I have an accounting degree, I'm going to use a company's balance sheet to help you understand how to use the different forecast models and how best to interpret them.

First, the balance sheet is often referred to as a 'snapshot' of a company's financial condition at a moment in time. However, one cannot fully understand how a company is doing and where it is going unless there is a comparison of its other balance sheets from prior years.


Similarly, when a forecast model is presented, we are looking at a 'snapshot' of weather conditions that could exist by the date the model suggests. However, it's difficult to make a forecast based on one model run unless we compare it to other 'runs'.


The article that I researched suggested looking at the balance sheet as a sequence of pictures in a photo album to compare changes over time. Why would we do this?


By comparing different 'snapshots', we can answer pertinent questions such as, "How much stuff do we have? What's the trend?" and "Where did it come from? What are the trends?"


Therefore, we can see how important it is to compare different model runs before making a forecast. By looking at the appropriate data (such as QPF - snowfall/accumulations) and analyzing trends, our interpretation for that model will be more accurate


In addition, we can compare other forecast models and follow the same steps above. Then, we can compare the different forecast models and identify any similarities to reach an effective conclusion thus making a better forecast.


Thanks to the following site for the useful information:
http://www.cooperativegrocer.coop/articles/2009-01-19/balance-sheets


In a later post, I hope to use some of the models for the next 'big' event here in the Ohio Valley. That is all for now. Have a great day!
MS