Localized Heavy Rainfall Amounts

Just here in Jefferson County in Louisville, rainfall has been rather widespread. However, only a few isolated areas have received appreciable amounts.

The highest total I have seen so far is just east of I-65 near I-265 or Gene Snyder Freeway. Near the Buechel Basin there has been 2.74".

Closer to my neck of the woods, in Pleasure Ridge Park near Riverview park along the Ohio River, 1.51" has accumulated in the rain gauge. However, just a few miles southeast of there here in Valley Station at my house, I haven't recorded any measurable precipitation, just a trace.

MS

A Very Wet July So Far

We have not even reached the middle of the month, yet some places in Western Kentucky have recorded nearly 14" so far. A few locations are closing in on a foot of rain.

This morning and early afternoon, Calhoun in McClean County has received nearly 5 and a half inches since midnight, easily doubling their total coming into today of 5.27".

A compact shield of moderate to heavy rain continues to lumber along a west to east, maybe slightly north of east, line from near Evansville through Owensboro and Tell City IN and approaching the Louisville area.

It will be interesting to see how this shield holds together or if it will weaken. However, additional storms are backbuilding to the west and may train over areas to the tune of 2-3" of rain with locally heavier amounts in thunderstorms along the Ohio River in Louisville. We might be testing the Flash Flood guidance for a 3-hour period, which should be running in the 3" range.

I think I would issue a Watch for the area anyway, just as a precautionary measure, especially for points just south and west of the area that have received heavier rainfall during the past few days.

MS

MikJournal Monday July 4 Edition

Good morning. While July rainfall is always welcome for us gardeners, too much of a good thing can even happen in July, especially on a holiday like the 4th.

Louisville has recorded 2 of its top ten wettest July days ever on the 4th...

1896...5.04" (#2)
1984...4.60"(#3)

Speaking of the year 1896, another top ten wettest July day occurred on the 21st at 3.41", a very wet month overall at 13.01".

In 1984 on this date, Louisville received 4.26" during a 4-hour period from about 2:00 - 6:00 in the morning which caused some minor flooding issues. At least there weren't too many traffic issues thanks to the holiday.

Also, a thunderstorm wind gust of 49 mph was recorded at Standiford Field causing scattered power outages throughout the county and totalling one car when a tree toppled onto it.

Therefore, while another soggy and stormy 4th is expected across the region, hopefully, record rainfall amounts and severe weather will be kept to a minimum.

For Louisville, a minimum of 3.12" would need to occur today for a top ten wettest July day on record.

However, if we become stuck in this pattern of heavy rain, we could be talking about top ten wettest July months on record...again.

Here are the required minimums to achieve a top ten wettest July ever...

Louisville...7.33" (we had 8.65" in July of last year)
Lexington...8.01" (we had 9.66" in July of last year)
Bowling Green...8.23"

Thanks in part to the Storm Data Publication from the NCDC, now a part of the NCEI, the National Centers for Environmental Information.

MS

Analogs Mixed About Widespread Severe Weather

Good morning. I have decided to chime in on the potential for severe weather today and into the evening.

One perspective I look at are how past weather systems that are somewhat similar to the one in question behaved. These are known as analogs.

According to a couple of datasets, primary locations for severe weather both included eastern Kentucky.

However, it is difficult to separate out the 'noise' since we have already seen a large complex of strong storms pass through this area. In other words, were the analogs picking up on the MCS as the culprit for severe weather potential or the actual front later today?

Percentages...Both datasets say greater than 50% chance for at least one severe weather event along and east of Interstate 65. But, the percentage drops a bit when it comes to 10 severe weather events.

Still, the eastern part of the state has the highest chances for today. But has that chance now passed or is that chance going to be realized later with the front?

Regardless, heavy rain potential is a given, very likely for many of us today. While I am not overly bullish on widespread severe weather today, I strongly urge ones to keep an eye to the sky, listen to local media outlets, and have a programmable weather radio nearby. Most stores carry these types for about $30 or so. I have a Midland model and it works very well for me.

MS

Enjoying Time Off

Good afternoon. A stranger is in your midst. No, I haven't been hibernating, but I have been enjoying some time away from weather, or at least writing about weather.
However, I still read others' weather blogs. I will still chime in at times when noteworthy weather looks to impact the area.
A cruise, gardening, work, and sinus/ear infections have taken quite a bit of my time.
I look forward to writing again in the near future.
Have a good week my weather friends.

MS

MikJournal Monday 05/02/2016

Good morning and welcome to my MikJournal Monday segment. After being a bit under the weather or allergies or both last week, I'm trying to get back to a normal routine of things. Of course, I missed my Historical Humpdays segment last Wednesday marking the 5-year anniversary of the historic tornado outbreak affecting central Alabama on April 27, 2011. I do hope to present that material soon.

Meanwhile, as we wrapped up the month of April, remember how windy it was for the first half of the month? I mean we were averaging double-digit mph kind of numbers. It was really looking like this could have been the windiest April ever,  it seemed.

However, looking at the average for the month, at Louisville International, the wind speed was 8.5 mph. March was still much windier on average at 9.5 mph. Even more humiliating, last April averaged 9.0 mph. It's hard to believe April 2016 finished so 'winded' after posting 9 days with wind gusts in excess of 35 mph. Winded, get it? Ha ha...okay. You gotta remember it is Monday.

Temperatures were muffled somewhat as well, thanks in large part to the unseasonable cold we endured for the first part of the month. However, we still ended with 8 days in the 80's, a rather impressive stat.

Moving into May, there was quite a bit of activity on Sunday as hail and some high winds raked the state. Reports of baseball size hail found along Boyd/Lawrence county line in far eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile in Indiana, near Indianapolis, 2.00" diameter hail photos were submitted as well as numerous photos of hail covering the ground up to 2" deep. Impressive looking wall cloud in one of the photos and a 70 mph wind gust at the Indianapolis airport.

Wind and hail damage were common across Oldham and Henry counties close to Louisville. The Lexington Mesonet reported a wind gust of 50 mph. At my place, despite the impressive cloud structure of a supercell, just to my north and then east, I only received a period of heavy rain. That's okay with me. I don't need that kind of hail.

Looking at the Kentucky Mesonet site, you may be interested in knowing that Murray, in Calloway county, leads the wettest of the wet for the year with 25.46" to date. A distant second is Benton, in Marshall county, at 20.08". Both are in western Kentucky.

The highest wind gust for the year so far has been reported in Pike county with a 61 mph gust in March.

Recall from my last post that temperatures may struggle through the 50's for some during this first part of May. That still looks achievable. The cyclonic flow of cool air will make for a rather unpleasant shock to our senses by midweek before rebounding in time for the Oaks and Derby.

Have a good week. Hopefully, no bad weather for you.

MS

MikJournal Monday 04/25/2016

Good morning to ya! Another in a series of beautiful spring days is on tap for us again today. I'm telling you, after a mostly cooler than normal start to the first several days of the month, I simply cannot recall a more amazing stretch of days we have enjoyed for a Spring season. But, as the saying goes, 'All good things must...', well, I don't want to see this come to an end, but change looks inevitable.

Our temperatures today look to rise into the summertime range. After that, our lovely little pattern takes a turn for the ugly side.

The Climate Prediction Center has posted its 6-10 day outlook and its 8-14 day outlook regarding temperatures and precipitation. A transition to cooler than normal temperatures will really set in as we get into the first part of May with a good chance of above normal precipitation.

At this point, I cannot say we will see sleet or anything wintry during that time frame, but the air will take on a more noticeable chill. In addition, with lingering clouds and light rain/drizzle the day after a frontal passage then throw in some brisk northerly winds, our May temperatures may struggle through the 50's for highs at times. Hopefully, this type of stuff will break by the time we get closer to the Oaks and Derby.

Besides the temperatures decreasing, precipitation chances look to increase over the next several days.

In fact a severe weather outbreak may begin as early as tomorrow in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. along a generally w-e frontal orientation. This may create a multi-episodic scenario of severe weather and heavy rainfall.

During the next several days, we could see numerous chances for rainfall and perhaps severe weather at times. Any timing for severe weather would be largely dependent on meeting many factors, including instability. At any rate, it will become a more stormy pattern than what we have been seeing lately.

I will be presenting a large write-up for the 5-year anniversary of the historic tornado outbreak that happened on Wednesday, April 27, 2011 and affected much of central Alabama, including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa.

Look for it on the MikJournal's Historical Humpdays segment this Wednesday.

Otherwise, have a great day. I owe my little girl an ice cream for her good report card from a few weeks ago. We actually took her shortly after she received it, but Graeters forgot to give us the free ice cream for her when they rang up the bill. So, we get to go back. Shucks.

MS