Analogs Mixed About Widespread Severe Weather

Good morning. I have decided to chime in on the potential for severe weather today and into the evening.

One perspective I look at are how past weather systems that are somewhat similar to the one in question behaved. These are known as analogs.

According to a couple of datasets, primary locations for severe weather both included eastern Kentucky.

However, it is difficult to separate out the 'noise' since we have already seen a large complex of strong storms pass through this area. In other words, were the analogs picking up on the MCS as the culprit for severe weather potential or the actual front later today?

Percentages...Both datasets say greater than 50% chance for at least one severe weather event along and east of Interstate 65. But, the percentage drops a bit when it comes to 10 severe weather events.

Still, the eastern part of the state has the highest chances for today. But has that chance now passed or is that chance going to be realized later with the front?

Regardless, heavy rain potential is a given, very likely for many of us today. While I am not overly bullish on widespread severe weather today, I strongly urge ones to keep an eye to the sky, listen to local media outlets, and have a programmable weather radio nearby. Most stores carry these types for about $30 or so. I have a Midland model and it works very well for me.

MS