Good morning. I have decided to chime in on the potential for severe weather today and into the evening.
One perspective I look at are how past weather systems that are somewhat similar to the one in question behaved. These are known as analogs.
According to a couple of datasets, primary locations for severe weather both included eastern Kentucky.
However, it is difficult to separate out the 'noise' since we have already seen a large complex of strong storms pass through this area. In other words, were the analogs picking up on the MCS as the culprit for severe weather potential or the actual front later today?
Percentages...Both datasets say greater than 50% chance for at least one severe weather event along and east of Interstate 65. But, the percentage drops a bit when it comes to 10 severe weather events.
Still, the eastern part of the state has the highest chances for today. But has that chance now passed or is that chance going to be realized later with the front?
Regardless, heavy rain potential is a given, very likely for many of us today. While I am not overly bullish on widespread severe weather today, I strongly urge ones to keep an eye to the sky, listen to local media outlets, and have a programmable weather radio nearby. Most stores carry these types for about $30 or so. I have a Midland model and it works very well for me.
MS
Thursday, June 23, 2016
Wednesday, June 8, 2016
Enjoying Time Off
Good afternoon. A stranger is in your midst. No, I haven't been hibernating, but I have been enjoying some time away from weather, or at least writing about weather.
However, I still read others' weather blogs. I will still chime in at times when noteworthy weather looks to impact the area.
A cruise, gardening, work, and sinus/ear infections have taken quite a bit of my time.
I look forward to writing again in the near future.
Have a good week my weather friends.
MS
However, I still read others' weather blogs. I will still chime in at times when noteworthy weather looks to impact the area.
A cruise, gardening, work, and sinus/ear infections have taken quite a bit of my time.
I look forward to writing again in the near future.
Have a good week my weather friends.
MS
Monday, May 2, 2016
MikJournal Monday 05/02/2016
Good morning and welcome to my MikJournal Monday segment. After being a bit under the weather or allergies or both last week, I'm trying to get back to a normal routine of things. Of course, I missed my Historical Humpdays segment last Wednesday marking the 5-year anniversary of the historic tornado outbreak affecting central Alabama on April 27, 2011. I do hope to present that material soon.
Meanwhile, as we wrapped up the month of April, remember how windy it was for the first half of the month? I mean we were averaging double-digit mph kind of numbers. It was really looking like this could have been the windiest April ever, it seemed.
However, looking at the average for the month, at Louisville International, the wind speed was 8.5 mph. March was still much windier on average at 9.5 mph. Even more humiliating, last April averaged 9.0 mph. It's hard to believe April 2016 finished so 'winded' after posting 9 days with wind gusts in excess of 35 mph. Winded, get it? Ha ha...okay. You gotta remember it is Monday.
Temperatures were muffled somewhat as well, thanks in large part to the unseasonable cold we endured for the first part of the month. However, we still ended with 8 days in the 80's, a rather impressive stat.
Moving into May, there was quite a bit of activity on Sunday as hail and some high winds raked the state. Reports of baseball size hail found along Boyd/Lawrence county line in far eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile in Indiana, near Indianapolis, 2.00" diameter hail photos were submitted as well as numerous photos of hail covering the ground up to 2" deep. Impressive looking wall cloud in one of the photos and a 70 mph wind gust at the Indianapolis airport.
Wind and hail damage were common across Oldham and Henry counties close to Louisville. The Lexington Mesonet reported a wind gust of 50 mph. At my place, despite the impressive cloud structure of a supercell, just to my north and then east, I only received a period of heavy rain. That's okay with me. I don't need that kind of hail.
Looking at the Kentucky Mesonet site, you may be interested in knowing that Murray, in Calloway county, leads the wettest of the wet for the year with 25.46" to date. A distant second is Benton, in Marshall county, at 20.08". Both are in western Kentucky.
The highest wind gust for the year so far has been reported in Pike county with a 61 mph gust in March.
Recall from my last post that temperatures may struggle through the 50's for some during this first part of May. That still looks achievable. The cyclonic flow of cool air will make for a rather unpleasant shock to our senses by midweek before rebounding in time for the Oaks and Derby.
Have a good week. Hopefully, no bad weather for you.
MS
Meanwhile, as we wrapped up the month of April, remember how windy it was for the first half of the month? I mean we were averaging double-digit mph kind of numbers. It was really looking like this could have been the windiest April ever, it seemed.
However, looking at the average for the month, at Louisville International, the wind speed was 8.5 mph. March was still much windier on average at 9.5 mph. Even more humiliating, last April averaged 9.0 mph. It's hard to believe April 2016 finished so 'winded' after posting 9 days with wind gusts in excess of 35 mph. Winded, get it? Ha ha...okay. You gotta remember it is Monday.
Temperatures were muffled somewhat as well, thanks in large part to the unseasonable cold we endured for the first part of the month. However, we still ended with 8 days in the 80's, a rather impressive stat.
Moving into May, there was quite a bit of activity on Sunday as hail and some high winds raked the state. Reports of baseball size hail found along Boyd/Lawrence county line in far eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile in Indiana, near Indianapolis, 2.00" diameter hail photos were submitted as well as numerous photos of hail covering the ground up to 2" deep. Impressive looking wall cloud in one of the photos and a 70 mph wind gust at the Indianapolis airport.
Wind and hail damage were common across Oldham and Henry counties close to Louisville. The Lexington Mesonet reported a wind gust of 50 mph. At my place, despite the impressive cloud structure of a supercell, just to my north and then east, I only received a period of heavy rain. That's okay with me. I don't need that kind of hail.
Looking at the Kentucky Mesonet site, you may be interested in knowing that Murray, in Calloway county, leads the wettest of the wet for the year with 25.46" to date. A distant second is Benton, in Marshall county, at 20.08". Both are in western Kentucky.
The highest wind gust for the year so far has been reported in Pike county with a 61 mph gust in March.
Recall from my last post that temperatures may struggle through the 50's for some during this first part of May. That still looks achievable. The cyclonic flow of cool air will make for a rather unpleasant shock to our senses by midweek before rebounding in time for the Oaks and Derby.
Have a good week. Hopefully, no bad weather for you.
MS
Monday, April 25, 2016
MikJournal Monday 04/25/2016
Good morning to ya! Another in a series of beautiful spring days is on tap for us again today. I'm telling you, after a mostly cooler than normal start to the first several days of the month, I simply cannot recall a more amazing stretch of days we have enjoyed for a Spring season. But, as the saying goes, 'All good things must...', well, I don't want to see this come to an end, but change looks inevitable.
Our temperatures today look to rise into the summertime range. After that, our lovely little pattern takes a turn for the ugly side.
The Climate Prediction Center has posted its 6-10 day outlook and its 8-14 day outlook regarding temperatures and precipitation. A transition to cooler than normal temperatures will really set in as we get into the first part of May with a good chance of above normal precipitation.
At this point, I cannot say we will see sleet or anything wintry during that time frame, but the air will take on a more noticeable chill. In addition, with lingering clouds and light rain/drizzle the day after a frontal passage then throw in some brisk northerly winds, our May temperatures may struggle through the 50's for highs at times. Hopefully, this type of stuff will break by the time we get closer to the Oaks and Derby.
Besides the temperatures decreasing, precipitation chances look to increase over the next several days.
In fact a severe weather outbreak may begin as early as tomorrow in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. along a generally w-e frontal orientation. This may create a multi-episodic scenario of severe weather and heavy rainfall.
During the next several days, we could see numerous chances for rainfall and perhaps severe weather at times. Any timing for severe weather would be largely dependent on meeting many factors, including instability. At any rate, it will become a more stormy pattern than what we have been seeing lately.
I will be presenting a large write-up for the 5-year anniversary of the historic tornado outbreak that happened on Wednesday, April 27, 2011 and affected much of central Alabama, including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa.
Look for it on the MikJournal's Historical Humpdays segment this Wednesday.
Otherwise, have a great day. I owe my little girl an ice cream for her good report card from a few weeks ago. We actually took her shortly after she received it, but Graeters forgot to give us the free ice cream for her when they rang up the bill. So, we get to go back. Shucks.
MS
Our temperatures today look to rise into the summertime range. After that, our lovely little pattern takes a turn for the ugly side.
The Climate Prediction Center has posted its 6-10 day outlook and its 8-14 day outlook regarding temperatures and precipitation. A transition to cooler than normal temperatures will really set in as we get into the first part of May with a good chance of above normal precipitation.
At this point, I cannot say we will see sleet or anything wintry during that time frame, but the air will take on a more noticeable chill. In addition, with lingering clouds and light rain/drizzle the day after a frontal passage then throw in some brisk northerly winds, our May temperatures may struggle through the 50's for highs at times. Hopefully, this type of stuff will break by the time we get closer to the Oaks and Derby.
Besides the temperatures decreasing, precipitation chances look to increase over the next several days.
In fact a severe weather outbreak may begin as early as tomorrow in parts of Kansas and Oklahoma. along a generally w-e frontal orientation. This may create a multi-episodic scenario of severe weather and heavy rainfall.
During the next several days, we could see numerous chances for rainfall and perhaps severe weather at times. Any timing for severe weather would be largely dependent on meeting many factors, including instability. At any rate, it will become a more stormy pattern than what we have been seeing lately.
I will be presenting a large write-up for the 5-year anniversary of the historic tornado outbreak that happened on Wednesday, April 27, 2011 and affected much of central Alabama, including Birmingham and Tuscaloosa.
Look for it on the MikJournal's Historical Humpdays segment this Wednesday.
Otherwise, have a great day. I owe my little girl an ice cream for her good report card from a few weeks ago. We actually took her shortly after she received it, but Graeters forgot to give us the free ice cream for her when they rang up the bill. So, we get to go back. Shucks.
MS
Wednesday, April 20, 2016
Historical Humpdays 04/20/2011 Tornado Outbreak in Kentucky and Southern Indiana
Tuesday/Wednesday April 19-20, 2011
Kentucky/Southern Indiana Historic Tornado Outbreak
The event only lasted about 4 hours; however, it would produce at least 2 dozen confirmed tornadoes, as the NWS offices would uncover.
There were several tornadoes that occurred over Southern Indiana, late in the evening on the 19th. Listed below are a few examples....
Between 10:30 and 11:00 p.m., in Orange County near Greenbrier, an EF-1 tornado with winds approaching 125 mph damaged or destroyed at least 4 metal barns or outbuildings, even tossing one of them 300 yards downwind. Trees were uprooted in a convergent pattern, a strong indicator that a tornado was present, as the uprooted trees were pointing toward a central location. Straight-line winds show damage of uprooted trees blown down facing only the opposite direction from which a damaging wind segment occurs, not blown down toward the wind source.
The same tornadic cell may have briefly lifted but touched down again for a brief period of time near Greenbrier and destroyed a metal roof barn while ripping off the front porch of another house and depositing it in the back yard. In addition, several tall evergreens were snapped off and thrown chaotically in all directions. The second touchdown apparently had winds of about 110 mph producing EF-1 damage.
About 11:00 p.m., in Washington County, near Livonia, an EF-1 tornado with wind speeds up to 100 mph destroyed a grain bin, then two silos and a 20 x 30 ft outbuilding. One home that was seriously damaged not only had the roof peeled back, but the home was pelted with flying gravel as the tornado lifted it from the driveway and pinged the home as with multiple slingshots.
Then, in Scott County, near Scottsburg, between 11:00 and 11:30 p.m., an EF-0 tornado with wind speeds up to 80 mph damaged the exterior wall panels of a Holiday Inn
Additional tornadoes were reported in Jefferson County Indiana, also in Clark County near the Jeffersonville airport.
In Central Kentucky, confirmed tornadoes in Breckinridge and Meade counties occurred just before midnight as well as an EF-1 tornado in Oldham County that destroyed a barn and damaged another later.
After midnight, in Franklin County, near the Frankfort Capitol building, an EF-0 tornado with wind speeds up to 70 mph caused minor damage to homes.
Also, near Georgetown in Scott County, an EF-1 tornado with wind speeds up to 95 mph caused extensive damage to a tied-down trailer and outbuildings as well as buckling the brick garage wall of a well-built home.
In addition to the tornadoes which by the way did not cause any injuries or deaths, widespread wind damage occurred in many places along that intense squall line.
Even in Central Alabama like Tuscaloosa, they would see widespread wind damage with speeds up to 75 mph.
Little did they know but in exactly one week on the 27th of the month, a historic tornado outbreak would affect Central Alabama, including the major cities of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. This will be the focus of my next Historical Humpdays segment. I will have a large write-up for the 5-year anniversary and hope you get a chance to review it.
Thanks to the storm reports from the NCDC's Storm Data publication from April 2011
MS
Kentucky/Southern Indiana Historic Tornado Outbreak
The event only lasted about 4 hours; however, it would produce at least 2 dozen confirmed tornadoes, as the NWS offices would uncover.
There were several tornadoes that occurred over Southern Indiana, late in the evening on the 19th. Listed below are a few examples....
Between 10:30 and 11:00 p.m., in Orange County near Greenbrier, an EF-1 tornado with winds approaching 125 mph damaged or destroyed at least 4 metal barns or outbuildings, even tossing one of them 300 yards downwind. Trees were uprooted in a convergent pattern, a strong indicator that a tornado was present, as the uprooted trees were pointing toward a central location. Straight-line winds show damage of uprooted trees blown down facing only the opposite direction from which a damaging wind segment occurs, not blown down toward the wind source.
The same tornadic cell may have briefly lifted but touched down again for a brief period of time near Greenbrier and destroyed a metal roof barn while ripping off the front porch of another house and depositing it in the back yard. In addition, several tall evergreens were snapped off and thrown chaotically in all directions. The second touchdown apparently had winds of about 110 mph producing EF-1 damage.
About 11:00 p.m., in Washington County, near Livonia, an EF-1 tornado with wind speeds up to 100 mph destroyed a grain bin, then two silos and a 20 x 30 ft outbuilding. One home that was seriously damaged not only had the roof peeled back, but the home was pelted with flying gravel as the tornado lifted it from the driveway and pinged the home as with multiple slingshots.
Then, in Scott County, near Scottsburg, between 11:00 and 11:30 p.m., an EF-0 tornado with wind speeds up to 80 mph damaged the exterior wall panels of a Holiday Inn
Additional tornadoes were reported in Jefferson County Indiana, also in Clark County near the Jeffersonville airport.
In Central Kentucky, confirmed tornadoes in Breckinridge and Meade counties occurred just before midnight as well as an EF-1 tornado in Oldham County that destroyed a barn and damaged another later.
After midnight, in Franklin County, near the Frankfort Capitol building, an EF-0 tornado with wind speeds up to 70 mph caused minor damage to homes.
Also, near Georgetown in Scott County, an EF-1 tornado with wind speeds up to 95 mph caused extensive damage to a tied-down trailer and outbuildings as well as buckling the brick garage wall of a well-built home.
In addition to the tornadoes which by the way did not cause any injuries or deaths, widespread wind damage occurred in many places along that intense squall line.
Even in Central Alabama like Tuscaloosa, they would see widespread wind damage with speeds up to 75 mph.
Little did they know but in exactly one week on the 27th of the month, a historic tornado outbreak would affect Central Alabama, including the major cities of Tuscaloosa and Birmingham. This will be the focus of my next Historical Humpdays segment. I will have a large write-up for the 5-year anniversary and hope you get a chance to review it.
Thanks to the storm reports from the NCDC's Storm Data publication from April 2011
MS
Monday, April 18, 2016
MikJournal Monday 04/18/16
What another beautiful start to the day, unless of course you have to pay your tax liability today.. Spring is making up for lost time after a seemingly long hiatus during most of the first half of the month.
A beautiful blue sky and a crystal clear night have dominated the weather forecast for a few days. Warm days and pleasantly cool mornings are just perfect for me.
Hey, did you get a chance to view last night's spectacular display of the bright International Space Station crossing the sky in the same vicinity of the moon and Jupiter? It really was a special treat, since I had no idea the three objects were going to share such a small part of the sky together.
What made this more interesting was other objects were crossing the sky at about the same time frame, possibly an airplane. As it traversed across the sky, it suddenly brightened then gradually dimmed over the next several seconds, briefly being illuminated by the sun (that had already set over a half hour earlier) during that time.
From the friendly skies to the ground below was an exceptional weekend for our region, but...
The skies were not so friendly over the weekend for parts of the Rockies and the Texas/Oklahoma regions.
In and around the Denver area, snowfall amounts in excess of a foot have caused some travel issues, including airport delays at the Stapleton Airport in Denver.
I have seen some reports of over 4 feet, just from this past weekend storm...
While April snowstorms are not uncommon in these areas, the amounts seen over the weekend were nothing short of amazing.
Denver, at 12.1" for the weekend, recently reached a high of 77 degrees last Thursday on the 14th. What a turnaround!
On the spring side of things, dangerous flooding conditions are currently ongoing in parts of east Texas, especially.
I was just reading some of the storm reports from the Houston/Galveston NWS office. Road closures, water rescues, up to 70 subdivisions now flooded in Houston, water even flowing over part of Interstate 10, and the rain does not appear to be abating anytime soon.
The rainfall began picking up in intensity just a few hours ago in Houston, where nearly 4" has fallen in the last 3 hours or so with heavy rain continuing to fall.
Radar estimates of rainfall since Saturday morning show over a foot of rain has occurred west of Houston.
A massive ridge in the east, partly responsible for our lovely weather, has kept the bulk of the rain confined to the same locations for the past few days.
From the Dallas/Fort Worth NWS office, rainfall amounts of 3-7" were common over the weekend. That system is what is now affecting Houston and will slowly trek east as the ridge finally begins to break down.
Finally, believe it or not, we are still dealing with a strong El Nino. However, it is weakening. The numbers have shown a 50% retracement from its mean high in the Nino 3-4 region. Therefore, the running mean (generally 3 months) will continue its downward spiral.
In fact, later on this year, we could be looking at La Nina conditions, which may make for an interesting winter and severe weather season next spring.
There's your long-range outlook. Now, if I can only predict what's going to happen this week....
MS
A beautiful blue sky and a crystal clear night have dominated the weather forecast for a few days. Warm days and pleasantly cool mornings are just perfect for me.
Hey, did you get a chance to view last night's spectacular display of the bright International Space Station crossing the sky in the same vicinity of the moon and Jupiter? It really was a special treat, since I had no idea the three objects were going to share such a small part of the sky together.
What made this more interesting was other objects were crossing the sky at about the same time frame, possibly an airplane. As it traversed across the sky, it suddenly brightened then gradually dimmed over the next several seconds, briefly being illuminated by the sun (that had already set over a half hour earlier) during that time.
From the friendly skies to the ground below was an exceptional weekend for our region, but...
The skies were not so friendly over the weekend for parts of the Rockies and the Texas/Oklahoma regions.
In and around the Denver area, snowfall amounts in excess of a foot have caused some travel issues, including airport delays at the Stapleton Airport in Denver.
I have seen some reports of over 4 feet, just from this past weekend storm...
| Listed Below is a small sample of Total Snowfall Reports | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
|
While April snowstorms are not uncommon in these areas, the amounts seen over the weekend were nothing short of amazing.
Denver, at 12.1" for the weekend, recently reached a high of 77 degrees last Thursday on the 14th. What a turnaround!
On the spring side of things, dangerous flooding conditions are currently ongoing in parts of east Texas, especially.
I was just reading some of the storm reports from the Houston/Galveston NWS office. Road closures, water rescues, up to 70 subdivisions now flooded in Houston, water even flowing over part of Interstate 10, and the rain does not appear to be abating anytime soon.
The rainfall began picking up in intensity just a few hours ago in Houston, where nearly 4" has fallen in the last 3 hours or so with heavy rain continuing to fall.
Radar estimates of rainfall since Saturday morning show over a foot of rain has occurred west of Houston.
A massive ridge in the east, partly responsible for our lovely weather, has kept the bulk of the rain confined to the same locations for the past few days.
From the Dallas/Fort Worth NWS office, rainfall amounts of 3-7" were common over the weekend. That system is what is now affecting Houston and will slowly trek east as the ridge finally begins to break down.
Finally, believe it or not, we are still dealing with a strong El Nino. However, it is weakening. The numbers have shown a 50% retracement from its mean high in the Nino 3-4 region. Therefore, the running mean (generally 3 months) will continue its downward spiral.
In fact, later on this year, we could be looking at La Nina conditions, which may make for an interesting winter and severe weather season next spring.
There's your long-range outlook. Now, if I can only predict what's going to happen this week....
MS
Friday, April 15, 2016
Severe Earthquake Rocks Japan
7.0 quake not very deep
Epicenter near Kumamoto...population of about 750,000 (734,000 in 2010)
Nearby locations include Nagasaki
Same region hit by a 6.2 tremor that killed at least 9 people recently.
MS
Epicenter near Kumamoto...population of about 750,000 (734,000 in 2010)
Nearby locations include Nagasaki
Same region hit by a 6.2 tremor that killed at least 9 people recently.
MS
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