Rainy Days...Sample Cities With Number of Days It Rains

Being in the midst of perhaps our wettest year ever, I wondered how many days has it actually rained, or how many days have we had measurable precipitation of at least 0.01"?

Here's a list up to today, though not including today's totals...

This is day 333 by the way.

Lexington - 135 days
Louisville WFO - 129
Paris - 127
Louisville (Official) - 122

Interestingly, several locations in eastern Kentucky reporting at least 140 days of precipitation exceeding 0.01" include:

Farmers - 162
Beattyville - 156
Inez - 151
W Liberty - 150
Skyline - 147
Flemingsburg - 144
Pikeville - 143
Paintsville - 141

As far as 2011 rainfall totals go, here is an unofficial list to date:

Louisville WFO 67"
Williamsburg 64"
Stearns 63"
Baxter 62"
Louisville (Official)  62"
Morehead 61"
Lexington 61"

Finally, for comparison purposes, here's a look at some U.S. cities with number of days of measurable precipitation of at least 0.01" and their annual total so far...

Seattle, right? Well, yes, but...
Seattle 154 days and only 34"

Hilo, HI 264 days - 77"
Cold Bay AK 232 days but only 33"
Raymond WA 229 days - 76"
Tolt South Fork WA 227 days - 115"
Annette AK 220 days - 102"
Forks WA 219 days - 111"

MS

There Is Snow Nearby...

Yes, it's been snowing nicely in areas south and west of Kentucky, primarily. Accumulations of up to 5" has been reported in parts of Tennessee, Missouri, and Arkansas.

However, even within our region, snow is falling. Evansville and Vincennes among them.

I'm still expecting some snow showers later this evening in Louisville. Not much accumulation is expected. Still, would be a nice scene, though.

Looking at trends several days out, models are trying to 'warm' the next system. The one after that may offer a chance. However, the NAO and the AO ensembles are forecasting positive values and a progressively negative PNA.

That means colder readings out west, milder air comes into the midwest, and the storm track goes west and north of Kentucky toward the Great Lakes. That generally translates to rain instead of snow for us. Hopefully, the models and teleconnection signals will 'cool' off over the next few days.

MS

UPDATE November and Annual Rainfall Totals

For Louisville, here's the latest thru 10:00 a.m.

November - 6.38" (9th wettest November all-time)
2011 Total - 61.57" (3rd wettest year all-time)
Wettest Annual record - 64.60"
---------------------------

For Lexington...thru 10:00 a.m.

November - 6.65" (5th wettest November all-time)
2011 Total - 60.89" (4th wettest year all-time)
Wettest Annual record - 65.76"
---------------------------

Most areas could see another inch before tapering off.

MS

California Has Just Gotten Smaller

I found this news article from November 21 on NBC. An impressive video account of a nice chunk of real estate sliding into the Pacific ocean near Los Angeles.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/45383284/ns/weather/

MS

Analog Time

This storm system has been a warm breaker, is currently a big rain maker, and will become a cold shaker (on a non-weather related note, metal shakers are better than plastic shakers...). Ok, I digress...back to the weather.

I was trying to find any weather patterns from the past that match up to this storm system's characteristics. Unfortunately, not too many that stand out as this is a slow mover. Plus, it is a GFS analog that I'm using, which did not want to slow this thing down, initially.

However, November 11, 2006 will do. Wasn't a huge rainmaker, but did produce over an inch and a quarter over a couple of days. However, of interest to me, the temperatures went downhill during the next few days. From the mid 50's to low 40's for highs. Even a trace of snow was reported in Louisville during this stretch.

I do anticipate a similar set of temperatures with possible snowshowers during the next few days.

Looking further down the road, I'm still looking at December 2 and 6-7 for possibly a measurable snowfall here in Louisville.

Updates later.

MS

Another Winter Forecast for Kentucky

Here's another winter forecast for the 2011/2012 season. He really believes that this will be a snowy and cold winter.

Chris Bailey is a down-to-earth weather 'dude'. He tells it like it is and is usually right.

Click HERE for his thoughts.

In the meantime, here is a summary of what he expects...





MS

True Confessions of a Snow Addict

Hi, I'm Mike S and I'm a snow addict. They tell me that I've taken the first step, good for me. They understand what I'm going through because they've been there.

But you know what? It's so hard to present the weather in winter without some biased intent or obsessive infatuation with the 'white stuff'. I must say that I've been looking forward to getting plowed by a good ole fashioned snow storm for the past few years.

The last good one I enjoyed was in March 2008, when a surprising 14" collected on my patio tables and chairs here in Valley Station. My little girl was only 6 weeks old; therefore, she doesn't have a clue what a real snow storm is since she slept the entire time I had her in my snow castle.

I do ask for your complete understanding when I start ranting about the 'big one'. I hope to be talking quite a bit about big snows this upcoming winter, but I'll try and tone it down a little at times.

Briefly, it does appear that Louisville could see its first real flakes of the season in a few days. However, I'm looking further down the road at December 2 and 6. We could see our first measurable snowfall during one or both of those time periods. Of course, these dates are approximate but does lend weight to the thought that December will indeed start out nice and wintry.

The models I've been looking at paint below to well below readings for the next 10 days at least, starting this Sunday. In the meantime, enjoy Friday and Saturday if you like pleasant weather. After that, winter's fixins will be on the top of my menu and I can't wait to get a taste of it.

Hey, what can I say? I'm a snow addict and proud of it.

MS