Heavy Rainfall Update...

picture courtesy of WYMT.com

Mudslide in Leslie county on US421. Nobody other than the driver was on the bus, and the driver was not injured.

Knoxville now at 5.43" for this event, surpassing 12" for the year already.
Our friends in Knox, Bell, Harlan, and Letcher counties are also reporting serious flooding and dangerous mudslides.

In Claiborne county in Tennessee, just across from Middlesboro KY, a scanner report of a 70-yr old driver inside the car that is floating in flood waters off Old Hwy 63.

The Cumberland River at Barbourville KY in Knox county is expected to reach the upper end of the Moderate stage possibly Major stage. It should surpass the 37.53' crest of February 12, 2018.

ALL floodgates to be closed in Harlan. Will Puckett doing a nice job of reminding drivers NOT to drive through floodwaters. If one must travel in Harlan and is safe to do so, the Harlan Baptist church is taking affected residents.
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As of 10:30 this Thursday morning, rainfall totals are approaching 5" at the Knox and Harlan counties Mesonet sites. Middlesboro, in Bell county is also approaching 5" for this event.

I am currently listening to scanner reports for any additional mudslides and/or water rescues from Letcher, Pike, and Knox counties.

Knoxville TN has received nearly 4.5" for a yearly total that is closing in on the 12" mark.

MikJournal Weekly Outlook for 02/03/2020 - 02/09/2020

Welcome to a NEW segment for the MikJournal. Each Monday, I'll post an outlook for the rest of the week. This is not a detailed forecast, but it is more of a synopsis about what to expect. I'll look at teleconnection patterns, at least for a little while longer, the Euro 850 mb temperatures for the week ahead, WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), Climate Prediction Center for temps and precipitation beyond our current week. So, let's hop into it.

First, a review of last week. Temperatures for our region for the last 7 days averaged above normal. Precipitation came in at modest levels, perhaps a bit below normal. Teleconnection patterns suggested a warmer than normal regime. The CPC had our region in an above normal shading for temperatures and a near normal to below normal shading for precipitation. Pretty much spot on.

What can we expect for the week ahead?

The teleconnection patterns...AO+ trending toward neutral, NAO+, EPO-, and PNA- as is currently the forecast. Looking at the combination, this would suggest an above normal temperature pattern despite a brief period of colder weather. Most of the cold should remain well north of our region.

However, the PNA- suggests trough west, ridge east. Well sort of. The combination of Pacific air and Gulf of Mexico air promises to deliver a wet week ahead, along a cold front. The WPC has our region in a 2-4" range of precipitation, again, mostly rainfall.

Whaaaa? Does this mean some of us may get snowfall too? This pattern does not suggest a significant winter storm. I'm telling it to you straight. I don't sugar coat it, or snow-coat it. However, it is possible to get some grassy accumulations this week. Not a big deal. Get over it. It is still winter albeit a dismal winter for snow lovers.

The Euro does suggest an overall warmer than normal pattern as well for the next 10 days. The CPC has its outlook for the 6-10 days and 8-14 days. For the 8th - 12th, above normal temperatures and precipitation. For the 10th - 16th, above normal temperatures and precipitation are expected.

There you go. Have a good week everyone. Look for additional posts this week as it pertains to our expected rain event and any winter issues we might incur as well.

MS

Another Top Ten Finish...

Lexington recorded its 2nd consecutive Top Ten Warmest entry by tying for 7th warmest January on record. December 2019 finished 8th warmest December.

Louisville barely missed Top Ten Warmest status last month, but came back strong in January to finish 7th Warmest for the month.

Other regional locations that finished January in Top Ten fashion include Paducah (9th), Jackson (6th), and London (t-6th),

Frankfort and Bowling Green were also well above normal but missed Top Ten recognition.

Interestingly, the month of January started out very wet, and all indications were pointing toward a top ten wettest month regionally. But, monthly rainfall totals, while still well above normal, did not live up to the hype...kind of like the winter so far.

MS

January 2020 Final Projections

I am now projecting a lock that Louisville and Lexington will record a top ten warmest January. For Lexington, this is the 2nd consecutive month with top ten warmest recognition.

Overall, this has been a blowtorch winter. Additionally, February looks to start out with above normal temperatures. With teleconnections strongly in favor of normal to above normal temperatures, February just might make a clean sweep.

From a meteorological standpoint, the official winter months of December through February could go down as one of the least snowy on record for many locations in our region, as well as one of the warmest winter seasons (top ten?).

MS

MikJournal Moment 01/28/2020

Major earthquake off shore of Cuba. Shipping lanes exist in that region, not too far from cruise ship pathways.
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Teleconnections still not favorable. NAO shows some modest potential for short term blocking. But, any cold shots will last just for 1-3 days, then warm up again. Overall, a near normal to above normal pattern exists for the next several days.

MikJournal Monday 01/27/2020

Good morning to your last Monday of January 2020. Wow! Can you believe it? It's almost February!

If any of you have noticed, especially if you have read the MikJournal before, I love weather history. Today, let's hop in the Way Back machine, shall we Sherman, and travel to January 27, 1998 in the Appalachian mountains.

A heavy, wet snow event collapsed structures, stranded motorists, and caused power outages with as much as 2 to 4 FEET of accumulation in the higher elevations and a general 5 - 10" in the valley areas. Specific states included Tennessee, North Carolina, eastern Kentucky, Virginia, and West Virginia.

According to the NCDC's Storm Data publication, in Harlan, Letcher, and Pike counties, "Heavy wet snow occured in the mountains near the Virginia border. Snowfall accumulations were elevation dependent, with locations below 1000 feet receiving less than 1 inch, while locations above 2500 feet received 8 to 22 inches.  Some specific amounts included 3 inches at Whitesburg, 4 inches at Jenkins, Phelps, Cumberland, and Dorton,  5 inches at Partridge, and 6 inches at Ash Camp. Up to 14 inches of snow accumulated in areas just outside of Jenkins, and 22 inches accumulated on Black Mountain where Kentucky Route 160 crosses into Virginia. The heavy wet snow brought down numerous trees and power lines. More than 100 vehicles were stranded for about 4 hours on KY 160 where the road crosses Pine Mountain between Gordon and Sand Hill.  Conditions were even worse on Black Mountain, where approximately 15  motorists were stranded for over 14 hours."

In West Virginia, a state record for most snowfall in a 24-hour period was established at Flat Top with 35". In and around Beckley, emergency officials concurred that this storm exceeded the Blizzard of March 1993.

Reports of snow flakes the size of "flap jacks and frisbees" or the size of "your fist" were common in McDowell and Fayette counties.

The situation could have been much worse for affected residents. There were 2 deaths directly attributable to the storm, but "one unique problem was the many retired coal miner [sic] that use oxygen generators.  The extended electrical outage presented health concerns."

Interestingly, in Charleston, only rain fell. At Huntington, not a flake or drop of rain was reported

Again, thanks to NCDC Storm Publication for these historic compilations of this snow storm.

Still hoping for a decent snow before winter gives up. But, time is now beginning to run short. We are exiting the coldest part of winter according to a few locations as their average temperatures will be rising from this point forward.

Make it a great week, and thanks for stopping by.

MS

Tornadoes, Strong Winds Today

With still more time left, some 445 wind damage reports have been received so far today.
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According to Madison county scanner, report of a mobile home blown over with occupants inside
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Tree on house trapping residents in Jefferson county.
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Already this morning a report of a rain-wrapped tornado in western Kentucky near Cadiz. Damage has been reported.

Winds exceeding 50 mph have been common across the western part of our region.

The line is supposed to weaken some this morning. But rainfall has been copious. Well over 2" since midnight in western Kentucky along with flash flood advisories and warnings.