BiG Snow Likely

NWS is calling this the largest snow storm to hit the area here for Louisville in at least 10 years, even comparing this one with heavyweights of the 1990's.

As I looked at the analogs for this storm system, the NAM analog has 2 powerhouse storms from the 90's in the top 6, including the January 1994 event.

I am working on another post for later this evening that has stats on daily weather records. It does appear that Louisville and Lexington could be looking at new daily snowfall records for the date tomorrow. In fact, some amounts may be in the top ten snowiest days ever for any month.

I am still not overly optimistic about Louisville's chances for a BIG snow (> 6"). However, the WPC has an area near Louisville and just south in a moderate risk for snowfall amounts approaching 12"!!

NWS Louisville has Louisville in a 8-12" range.

Until I digest data from the RAP short range models, I still think there could be a bust potential for areas near the Ohio River.

Nevertheless, I still think Louisville should see 4-8", amounts varying from smaller in the north to larger accumulations south. Still a big snow, regardless.

It will be interesting to see where these heavier bands set up. Somebody is going to get pounded.

More updates likely...

MS

What Just Happened? Winter Storm Nearing 'Likely' Status

**WINTER STORM WARNING** for Kentucky...Disregard any comment about WWA for now in the post below....
--------------------------------------

Remember last week how a storm system was setting its sites on our region only to see it shift at least 150 miles north over a period of a couple of runs? Yeah, Linus (The Weather Channel named storm).

Well, I have been following the latest runs of the models. Since I went to bed early, I missed the latest 00z data of the NAM. The storm system is within 36 hours of impacting the region, generally getting close to the sweet spot for the NAM. And wow, what a significant shift to the north!

Now, I'm not pulling the trigger yet, especially for those of us who reside closer to the Ohio River. After all, we here are on the northern extent of a massive snow shield forecast to develop overnight into Monday.

However, for south-central, most of central and eastern Kentucky, an impressive snow storm looks to deal a significant blow to your Monday morning commute.

As long as the next run of the NAM (12z) does not shift this thing too much, Kentucky could reap a bountiful harvest of white, a meteorological bullseye, something we haven't seen in a while around here.

It's hard to put numbers on this because the Arctic air in place has a lot of dry air for this system to overcome. But, once it gets going, look out.

I do expect an upgrade to Warning status for areas of, say, from E'town to Ashland and all points south of that for Kentucky. 4-10" based on latest data.

I would expect a  WWA for areas north of that. 1-4" for those areas.

My next update after I digest the data from the 12z run of the NAM.

Come on, I'm excited and I hate it because I'll have to work at the airport tomorrow night.

MS

Euro Model Shows BRRR

It's just not the Euro model, but all models are capturing enough data to suggest we will be experiencing record to near-record low temperatures by Sunday morning.

A recent run shows temperatures along and east of I-65 to be in the range of -4 to 5 degrees by then. Cold air advection winds may help keep temperature from bottoming out too much. So, even if we do not get to the readings suggested by this latest run of the Euro, wind chills are still expected to be a serious issue. Those readings are expected to be in a range of -10 to -20 degrees for many locations, easily prompting wind chill advisories and borderline wind chill warnings for many of us.

Enjoy the day today while you still can.

MS

NAM Does Not Like Snow Accumulation for Next System

Well, it looks like we may get another chance for snow. Winter Storm Linus (The Weather Channel) took the 'football' from 'Charlie Brown' just like his big sister Lucy. And we were left with nothing but wet ground.

However, don't look for that snow shovel yet. Accumulations with this next system look to be pretty light, on the order of an inch or less according to the latest (12z 02/03/15) NAM. That puts the system about 36 hours out. I would recommend one additional run this evening to see if there is enough consistency run to run.

A weakening band of snow will approach the Ohio River late Wednesday and into the overnight. Accumulations of generally 0.5" along and north of the River.

That may still cause some travel issues for the overnight hours but hopefully the rush hour will not be impacted negatively.

If next run is consistent, no need for further updates.

MS

Analog Time - Super Snow Sunday?

Yes, the models are still coming to grips with a storm system approaching from the southwest coupled with another disturbance north of that one.

One thing I like to look at during a time like this are the top analogs for this type of storm system. I have been really successful at looking at these.

First, look at the top 5 analogs. Then, see which ones remain in the top 5 over a period of time.

Last, compare the model runs with the most consistent top 5 analog and take note of any differences.

Right now, I'm looking at the #2 ranked analog dating to February 25-27, 1993, an impressive winter storm that dumped several inches on the state of Kentucky. It is worth noting that both the GFS and NAM analog show this feature ranked #2.

During that storm, nearly 10" snow fell near Owensboro while 6-8" fell from Paducah to Louisville to Covington. 2-6" fell across the rest of the state.

Indiana was buried as well. From a line south of Terre Haute to Lawrenceburg, 7-11" fell. In Evansville, 11" fell, Bloomington had 8", and Indianapolis 6".

This storm system from 1993 just came into play with the last couple of runs. Therefore, it is important to see if future analog guidance continues to support this along with model guidance, which should begin sampling data tomorrow.

So, the potential is there for a decent snow storm. Let's see how it plays out over the next couple of days.

MS

Lowest Tornado Count Since 1988???

Since there is not much snow to talk about, let's talk about tornadoes.  The 2014 annual tornado count is near completion. According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 831 confirmed tornadoes have occurred in the United States with another 50 pending. This is well below the 20-year average of 1253.

Therefore, 2014 will likely go down as the least amount of tornadoes confirmed since 1988, a span of over 25 years.

Furthermore, the 47 tornado-related fatalities is the lowest number since 2009 when only 22 deaths were reported.

MS

Perfect Timing?

Looking at the title of my post, you may be thinking about the cold rain and sleet moving in this Thursday morning. It's even raining here at my house in Valley Station and the battery for my digital rain gauge is no longer transmitting data. Or perhaps the current Orion rocket launch delay due to wind violation just above the launch pad despite seemingly perfect visibilities and dry conditions at the site. Sam Champion from the Weather Channel morning show still cannot believe that computers have come this far that they can now override the countdown to launch.

Nevertheless, the 'perfect timing' issue I'm thinking of this morning is related to something that might occur within the next couple of weeks, maybe less. Here, let me explain.

Another super typhoon is trekking across the western Pacific, like toward the Philippines. Curvature toward Japan may result in yet another instance when a tropical system affecting Japan might make our weather here in the United States much colder than normal.

Combine this with a weak El Nino and seasonal rainy pattern in California, can you see it? Cold air invasion from the north and an active Pacific stream coming in across California is going to make for interesting weather down the road.

Stay tuned.

MS