Update: 2:28pm edt
Just in...I didn't see that, just moments ago while I was writing my thoughts below, Indianapolis NWS has issued a Winter Storm Watch for much of their CWA, including Seymour, Bloomington, and Indianapolis. Accumulations of 5-9" expected along and north of Bloomington and 3-6" south of that line.
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Winter Storm Watches and Advisories looking more likely for Indianapolis, Seymour, and Dayton. Cincinnati could still get in on some accumulation.
NAM puts deformation band in Indiana. Could be a southward retraction in the NAM's runs. My forecast comes out late tonight/tomorrow morning.
MS
Friday, March 22, 2013
Analog Time: Accumulating Snow for Some
An early February-type system will be approaching our region later this weekend and promises to bring snow to parts of the region.
I've had some success looking at analogs for possible storm scenarios. One that caught my attention this time is from February 6, 2010.
I like the moisture placement for the most part. Granted, these analogs do not mean the exact weather that happened then will happen again in these places.
However, it does show the storm's potential and most likely locations to be impacted.
Remember, this is not a forecast. This is just a look back in time at a weather system that has similar features to the one that will be impacting the region later this weekend.
The February 6, 2010 event put down less than 1" here in Louisville. However, just to the north at Indy and Cincinnati, they had amounts around 6". There were some isolated heavier amounts exceeding 8" around the Cincinnati area.
I'll be looking at the NAM as my trusted source within 36 hours of the main event. Meanwhile, I thought I'd share that little bit of snow history with you looking at analogs.
Some places primarily north of Louisville could be looking at the potential for 4-8". Not bad at all by mid-January standards if you ask me. And this is March???
MS
I've had some success looking at analogs for possible storm scenarios. One that caught my attention this time is from February 6, 2010.
I like the moisture placement for the most part. Granted, these analogs do not mean the exact weather that happened then will happen again in these places.
However, it does show the storm's potential and most likely locations to be impacted.
Remember, this is not a forecast. This is just a look back in time at a weather system that has similar features to the one that will be impacting the region later this weekend.
The February 6, 2010 event put down less than 1" here in Louisville. However, just to the north at Indy and Cincinnati, they had amounts around 6". There were some isolated heavier amounts exceeding 8" around the Cincinnati area.
I'll be looking at the NAM as my trusted source within 36 hours of the main event. Meanwhile, I thought I'd share that little bit of snow history with you looking at analogs.
Some places primarily north of Louisville could be looking at the potential for 4-8". Not bad at all by mid-January standards if you ask me. And this is March???
MS
Tuesday, March 19, 2013
Top Ten Coldest March???
What a difference a year makes. Last year, Louisville recorded its warmest March ever at an average of 59.6 degrees (70.5 / 48.6).
This year, as of the 18th, the average temperature has been 41.2 degrees (49.5 / 33.0). At this time, we still do not qualify for top ten status for coldest March ever. The tenth place average is 40.0 degrees.
However, looking at medium-range forecasts, there is a likely chance we will continue to see below-average temperatures for the rest of the month.
In fact, based on those forecasts, I'm already projecting a finish in the bottom half of the top ten list. For that to happen, our average temperature would have to be in a range of 39.0 and 40.0 degrees, or 6th through 10th place.
I think this is a conservative projection. In other words, we could be looking at a colder scenario, which could vault us as high as 3rd place (38.5 degree average).
For the record, pun intended, the first and second coldest March ever were 1960's 32.5 average and 1947's 37.1 average.
MS
This year, as of the 18th, the average temperature has been 41.2 degrees (49.5 / 33.0). At this time, we still do not qualify for top ten status for coldest March ever. The tenth place average is 40.0 degrees.
However, looking at medium-range forecasts, there is a likely chance we will continue to see below-average temperatures for the rest of the month.
In fact, based on those forecasts, I'm already projecting a finish in the bottom half of the top ten list. For that to happen, our average temperature would have to be in a range of 39.0 and 40.0 degrees, or 6th through 10th place.
I think this is a conservative projection. In other words, we could be looking at a colder scenario, which could vault us as high as 3rd place (38.5 degree average).
For the record, pun intended, the first and second coldest March ever were 1960's 32.5 average and 1947's 37.1 average.
MS
Monday, March 18, 2013
Weather for Second Half of March
Talk about March Madness and I don't mean basketball.
I woke up to my windows vibrating and my dog's paws skittering across the hardwood floors attempting to hide from the sound of thunder this morning. That didn't work. A few more tremendous rumbles found him in his hiding place as well.
On Saturday we exceeded 70 degrees in Louisville. On Sunday, a short trip outside of the city's limits, 3 inches of snow accumulated for a time. This morning, it was 37 at my house with thunder, wind, and heavy rain.
What a way to begin the second half of March.
The weather professionals are promising temperatures well into the 50's today. That's actually down from the lower 60's. Looking at recent observations, though, just before the 10:00am time frame, I'm seeing the warmer air getting pinched off, sliding eastward across the southern and southeastern parts of our viewing area. I would be surprised if we see over 50 degrees today here in Louisville.
Speaking of 50 degrees, I looked at a recent chart of high temperatures here. Here's what I found....
Temps >= 50 degrees (number of days during the month)
January - 10
February - 12
March - 7 (through the 17th)
Technically, we're over half way through the month. If we don't reach 50 today, don't look for it again for the rest of the week. Can you imagine March being cooler than February (which was below normal cool as well)?
I hate to bring up the past. But did you know that at this time last year, we reached 82 degrees? That would begin a 5-day stretch of temperatures in the 80's! And this was after we had already recorded 80 degrees or better for a couple of days earlier in the month.
Looking ahead, here's what the CPC is saying for the rest of the month....
>70 percent chance that temps will be below normal for the March 23-27 time frame.
>50 percent chance that temps will be below normal for the March 25-31 time frame.
Most locations will have equal chances for slightly above or slightly below normal precipitation.
Later.
MS
I woke up to my windows vibrating and my dog's paws skittering across the hardwood floors attempting to hide from the sound of thunder this morning. That didn't work. A few more tremendous rumbles found him in his hiding place as well.
On Saturday we exceeded 70 degrees in Louisville. On Sunday, a short trip outside of the city's limits, 3 inches of snow accumulated for a time. This morning, it was 37 at my house with thunder, wind, and heavy rain.
What a way to begin the second half of March.
The weather professionals are promising temperatures well into the 50's today. That's actually down from the lower 60's. Looking at recent observations, though, just before the 10:00am time frame, I'm seeing the warmer air getting pinched off, sliding eastward across the southern and southeastern parts of our viewing area. I would be surprised if we see over 50 degrees today here in Louisville.
Speaking of 50 degrees, I looked at a recent chart of high temperatures here. Here's what I found....
Temps >= 50 degrees (number of days during the month)
January - 10
February - 12
March - 7 (through the 17th)
Technically, we're over half way through the month. If we don't reach 50 today, don't look for it again for the rest of the week. Can you imagine March being cooler than February (which was below normal cool as well)?
I hate to bring up the past. But did you know that at this time last year, we reached 82 degrees? That would begin a 5-day stretch of temperatures in the 80's! And this was after we had already recorded 80 degrees or better for a couple of days earlier in the month.
Looking ahead, here's what the CPC is saying for the rest of the month....
>70 percent chance that temps will be below normal for the March 23-27 time frame.
>50 percent chance that temps will be below normal for the March 25-31 time frame.
Most locations will have equal chances for slightly above or slightly below normal precipitation.
Later.
MS
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Snow Accumulations Likely Tonight Mar 5-6 2013
Update: 4:40pm
Temperature down to 37. That's a 3 degree drop in 15 minutes. Large flakes have begun falling here in Valley Station.
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Update: 4:25pm
Front has pushed through Valley Station during the last few minutes. Gusty winds will increase along with a heavier rain band. Temps have dropped 6 degrees in the last hour from 46 to 40 here in Valley Station sw of Louisville. Snow is getting closer.
------------------------
Update: 2:55pm
Forgot to update the front. Temps are crashing out west, low to mid 30's. Winds are gusting 30-35 mph as close as Breckinridge and Grayson counties.
-----------------------------------
In Nowcast mode, we can still access short-term models such as the HRRR or High Resolution Rapid Refresh for a look at possible accumulations. I'll be posting updates as to whether this storm may overachieve or fizzle out for the region.
Temperatures will be key. As long as surface temperatures are close to the freezing mark, main roads should be slushy to wet. However, I've seen main roads that I travel become snow covered quickly.
Banding of snow will be another key. Where heavier and persistent bands set up, expect robust accumulations.
In general, 2-4" is forecast for the region from Louisville to Lexington. I like that forecast. Some 5-6" amounts are possible in these areas.
The 1400z run of the HRRR at 15 hours out or midnight tonight has Louisville to Cincinnati in a 1-2" range by then. The snow is expected to continue at least till daybreak.
The 1600z run at 15 hours out or about 2:00am still has Louisville closer to 1" while 1-3" surrounds Louisville by then.
Updates later...
MS
Temperature down to 37. That's a 3 degree drop in 15 minutes. Large flakes have begun falling here in Valley Station.
-------------------------------------------
Update: 4:25pm
Front has pushed through Valley Station during the last few minutes. Gusty winds will increase along with a heavier rain band. Temps have dropped 6 degrees in the last hour from 46 to 40 here in Valley Station sw of Louisville. Snow is getting closer.
------------------------
Update: 2:55pm
Forgot to update the front. Temps are crashing out west, low to mid 30's. Winds are gusting 30-35 mph as close as Breckinridge and Grayson counties.
-----------------------------------
In Nowcast mode, we can still access short-term models such as the HRRR or High Resolution Rapid Refresh for a look at possible accumulations. I'll be posting updates as to whether this storm may overachieve or fizzle out for the region.
Temperatures will be key. As long as surface temperatures are close to the freezing mark, main roads should be slushy to wet. However, I've seen main roads that I travel become snow covered quickly.
Banding of snow will be another key. Where heavier and persistent bands set up, expect robust accumulations.
In general, 2-4" is forecast for the region from Louisville to Lexington. I like that forecast. Some 5-6" amounts are possible in these areas.
The 1400z run of the HRRR at 15 hours out or midnight tonight has Louisville to Cincinnati in a 1-2" range by then. The snow is expected to continue at least till daybreak.
The 1600z run at 15 hours out or about 2:00am still has Louisville closer to 1" while 1-3" surrounds Louisville by then.
Updates later...
MS
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Ready For Spring? Not Yet...
The Climate Prediction Center has published its medium range and long range temperature and precipitation products for March. If you're hoping for spring-like conditions, well, the first part of the month is not looking too good.
The CPC updates its medium range outlooks often. So check the links below.
For the period covering March 1-9, below normal temperatures can be expected. In fact, probabilities within a range of 50-70% are highlighted. That's an unusually high confidence range.
Precipitation for the same period is expected to come in at below normal. Sounds right to me.
We look to be in a persistent northwest flow pattern which tends to keep the moisture and warmer air from reaching us via the Gulf of Mexico.
However, do not despair. The CPC provided its monthly outlook for March this past Thursday, the 21st.
Once this persistent cold pattern breaks down, the warmer air out west will overtake us. In fact, a persistent warm pattern looks to set in. But, along with the warmer temperatures will bring a better chance for more precipitation.
CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
CPC's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
CPC's 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook
CPC's 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
March 's 30-Day Temperature Outlook
March's 30-Day Precipitation Outlook
MS
The CPC updates its medium range outlooks often. So check the links below.
For the period covering March 1-9, below normal temperatures can be expected. In fact, probabilities within a range of 50-70% are highlighted. That's an unusually high confidence range.
Precipitation for the same period is expected to come in at below normal. Sounds right to me.
We look to be in a persistent northwest flow pattern which tends to keep the moisture and warmer air from reaching us via the Gulf of Mexico.
However, do not despair. The CPC provided its monthly outlook for March this past Thursday, the 21st.
Once this persistent cold pattern breaks down, the warmer air out west will overtake us. In fact, a persistent warm pattern looks to set in. But, along with the warmer temperatures will bring a better chance for more precipitation.
CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
CPC's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
CPC's 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook
CPC's 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
March 's 30-Day Temperature Outlook
March's 30-Day Precipitation Outlook
MS
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Yep, Another One of Those
Ohio Valley winter is dynamic, though at times it may seem static for most (aka no big snow).
Another storm system is ready to confound the weather pros again. However, the final outcome will result in rain.
Initial precipitation is going to be the tricky part. Apparently rain should be the dominant type; however, surface temperatures may be a problem for some.
A recent GFS analog and a NAM forecast support best chance for ice from Louisville to Cincinnati. I would place the best chance from Carrollton to Cincinnati. At least 0.1" ice accumulation is possible before surface temperatures warm above freezing.
Expect changes to the forecast as storm track data becomes more readily available.
MS
Another storm system is ready to confound the weather pros again. However, the final outcome will result in rain.
Initial precipitation is going to be the tricky part. Apparently rain should be the dominant type; however, surface temperatures may be a problem for some.
A recent GFS analog and a NAM forecast support best chance for ice from Louisville to Cincinnati. I would place the best chance from Carrollton to Cincinnati. At least 0.1" ice accumulation is possible before surface temperatures warm above freezing.
Expect changes to the forecast as storm track data becomes more readily available.
MS
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