MikeS 66 Index Monthly Report

Here is a breakdown of November's temperatures and precipitation by climate divisions...

High Plains
     39.6 degrees
      3.5 degrees ABOVE
     40.2% of normal precipitation

Midwest
     39.4 degrees
      0.1 degrees ABOVE
     37.6% of normal precipitation

Northeast
     41.0 degrees
      2.8 degrees BELOW
     28.4% of normal precipitation

Southeast
     55.2 degrees
      3.4 degrees BELOW
     33.8% of normal precipitation

Southern
     54.7 degrees
      0.6 degrees ABOVE
     26.3% of normal precipitation

West
     50.7 degrees
      3.4 degrees ABOVE
     95.9% of normal precipitation

Summary:
Although 4 of the 6 climate divisions in the U.S. reported above normal temperatures, the U.S. average was pretty close to normal, according to the MikeS 66 Index.

One outstanding feature in this report is the precipitation deficit across the U.S. The composite index shows that the U.S. received only 43% of its normal precipitation for November.

The driest climate regions belonged to the Southern, Northeast, and Southeast respectively. These areas reported about a third or less of their normal November precipitation.

The West was unusually wet, offset by the southwestern areas where some locations reported less than 10% of their normal precipitation.

United States
     46.9 degrees
      0.4 degrees ABOVE
     43.5% of normal precipitation

MS

UPDATE Snow For Louisville?

Yesterday's post dealt with the chances for measurable snow here in Louisville. I was not very impressed by the NAM and GFS 850mb forecast temperatures. Readings between 0 and -2 degrees Celsius may denote a mix at best but not good enough for a complete changeover.

Today, my thinking remains mostly in line with yesterday's thinking. However, the NAM has trended slightly cooler with 850mb readings between -1 and -3 degrees Celsius. Also, the freezing line (the 540 line) looks to be just along the river, perhaps just north as the main precipitation shield plans to exit the area here in Louisville.

If the precip can hang around long enough, as colder air filters into the region, rain could mix and change completely to snow later. However, accumulations continue to look negligible as surface temperatures will be  too warm.

Look for mostly rain, with snow mixing in at times. I still don't forecast a complete changeover.]

MS

Snow For Louisville?

The 12z NAM is in...This will be the one that I go by.

Moisture placement is right over Louisville by 1:00am Tue. Expect up to 0.25" liquid equivalent.

How much will fall as snow? NAM 850 mb forecast keeps temps in the 0 to -2 Celsius range, not really good enough for all snow. However, it appears that some snow will mix in with the rain.

Some locations could see some whitening on the grassy surfaces. Right now, snow accumulations look negligible.

More updates later.

MS

MikeS 66 Index 112112

My biweekly index for today (actually yesterday's data) was an impressive 51.5 degrees. That's an average of the high and low temperatures from 66 locations across the U.S.

All 6 climate divisions of the U.S. experienced above normal temperatures.

Here's a breakdown of those climate divisions...

High Plains 13.1 degrees ABOVE NORMAL
Midwest 9.7 degrees ABOVE NORMAL
Northeast 0.4 degrees ABOVE NORMAL
Southeast 0.4 degrees ABOVE NORMAL
Southern 6.6 degrees ABOVE NORMAL
West 10.3 degrees ABOVE NORMAL

66 Index 51.5 degrees
6.8 degrees ABOVE NORMAL

However, look for a cool down across the north and northeast. We'll see colder readings here in Louisville by the weekend. Enjoy it for now.

MS

Flood Advisory Grand Canyon?

I'm looking at the RADAR and can't find a single drop within a few hundred miles of the Grand Canyon. Yet, there is a flood advisory???

Well, on Sunday, a High-Flow Experimental (HFE) release of nearly 42,000 cubic feet per second (cfs) was being conducted for 24 hours from the Glen Canyon Dam.

Typical releases from the Glen Canyon Dam range from 8,000 to 25,000 cfs. This has been a normal event since 1996 and is part of a mandate called the Grand Canyon Protection Act. However, the increase in flow to 42,000 cfs should help move sand from the river channel and deposit it to rebuild sandbars and beaches at the National Park.

Still, those along the Colorado river should exercise caution when conducting recreational activities for the next several hours.

More information found at the link below...
http://www.nps.gov/GRCA/NATURESCIENCE/HFE.HTM

MS

Rain, Rain, Go Away...

Ok, not much rain around here in Kentucky and Southern Indiana. In fact, our weather looks outstanding for most of the holiday week.

For a moment, let's turn our attention to the northwest. Rain is in the forecast for the next several days.

One of the wettest locations in the U.S. is a place called Forks WA. As of early this morning, precipitation has finally surpassed the 100" mark. To date, there has been measurable precipitation of at least 0.01" for 197 days this year. Last year, Forks received a little over 120". They recorded precipitation 237 days last year.

Measurable precipitation of at least 0.01" in Seattle has occurred 143 days this year. However, only 35.86" has been measured.

In contrast, here in Louisville, we have had measurable precipitation 102 days this year. Precipitation amounts have totaled 38.46".

On the snow side of things, mountain passes near Mt Baker and Paradise near Rainier could see 1-3 feet of snow this week. Locally heavier amounts may occur if temperatures remain cold enough.

I'll be posting rain and snow amounts for Washington later this week.

MS

Climate Prediction Center - Preliminary Winter Outlook

On November 15, the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) put out a preliminary winter outlook for the three-month period of December through February.

Since the final map may be different than the preliminary, I'll give you the link but discuss the outlook here.

Temperatures are expected to be warmer than average across much of the western U.S., from Louisiana to Kansas to parts of Oregon and southern Montana.

Below normal temperatures are expected in southern Alaska, the northern plains including the U.P. of Michigan, and a large part of Florida.

As far as precipitation probabilities, above normal chances exist across parts of the south, the lower Ohio Valley and Tennessee Valley. Some states include Arkansas, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

Below normal precipitation chances exist in southern Alaska and California, generally north of Los Angeles and into parts of Nevada.

Link:
CPC Preliminary 3-Month Winter Outlook Dec-Feb

MS