MikJournal Monday12/09/2019...Winter Threat?

Good morning. Wow. Wait a sec. What day is it? I have 55 degrees at the moment. Normal high and low temperature for this date is 48 and 32 respectively here in Louisville. Looks like another solid day above normal. In fact, the month of December has averaged at least 3 degrees above normal for the month, a far cry from what some were forecasting for this first part of December.

However, we do have a strong cold front that will knock temperatures down for a couple of days. Of immediate interest to us here in Kentucky, is not just the cold air rushing in later tonight, but a wave of low pressure developing along the front that will provide overrunning moisture for many residents of central and eastern/southeastern Kentucky.

Many forecast models are showing hefty amounts of snowfall, like warning criteria. But, the thermal profiles do not look supportive of an all snow event during the entire track of this wave of low pressure. In fact temperatures at the 500 mb level and 850 mb level, snow does not look like the precipitation of choice for many during the first part. Only after the low's departure and subsequent colder air rushing in behind it, will snowfall begin to be realized. So by the time snow is realized, the warm ground along with drier air advecting into the region should limit snowfall amounts for most of us. Still, amounts of at least 4" could be realized in the higher elevations of eastern/southeastern Kentucky.

The teleconnection patterns I follow continue to support relatively mild conditions later this week. But, another shot of cold air is expected though not until at least a week away. So more normal to above normal readings can be expected through the first half of the month. Ones who were expecting a below normal December will be biting their fingernails, hoping the second half of the month will offset the very mild first half.

MS