Monday, November 25, 2019

MikJournal Moment 11/25/2019

Knoxville Downtown Airport (KDKX)

Lat: 35.97°NLon: 83.87°WElev: 827ft.
Freezing Fog
-13°F
-25°C
HumidityNA
Wind SpeedCalm
Barometer29.96 in
DewpointN/A
Visibility0.15 mi
Last update25 Nov 9:15 am EST  


I could not help but take a picture of this from the Morristown TN NWS office for Knoxville this morning. 

Now, that would be a record, IF it was accurate. Don't worry. With an expected high of 57 degrees today, that would set another record for highest spread in temperatures (nearly 70 degrees).

During the last hour, the temperature was actually 32 degrees.

MikJournal Monday Prediction for 12/02/2019

Trying something experimental with a forecast out 7 days from today. I like the Euro model, but I do have to factor in an either/or scenario. Weather systems don't always follow what we think we'll happen.

For next Monday or Tuesday the 3rd from Louisville to Lexington, temperatures will range from the mid to upper 30's with snow showers possible. NOT expecting much accumulation at all. Lows could bottom out in the low to mid 20's, depending on how much clearing takes place.

NAO and AO teleconnections look to trend positive throughout this week. This could result in at least a short term reprieve of the coldest air here regionally early next week. But, the cold air will continue to build throughout the Canadian regions, poised to invade the US northern Plains. But, we'll have to watch for future trends of the AO to determine when that could happen.

Otherwise, expect near normal to slightly below normal temperatures for the first few days of December.

Tuesday, November 19, 2019

MikJournal Moment 11/19/2019

Close Call...

Nearly 6 years ago, on November 17, an outbreak of tornadoes pummeled parts of the Midwest and affected a large real estate of western Kentucky.

In fact several confirmed tornadoes were rated EF-2 to EF-3 strength. One of the tornadoes hit a Uranium enrichment plant near Paducah.

It just so happened that earlier that year in May 2013, plans were in the works to cease operation at the gaseous diffusion plant. According to a report, operations did indeed cease in June.

Initially, there were conflicting reports of whether radioactivity somehow escaped into the air or into the ground. Also, some even questioned whether the plant had fully shut down by this time, some 5 months later, since there was some kind of expiration dating December 31, 2013.

Nevertheless, everything turned out fine. No hazardous materials or radioactivity were released thereby posing no problem to the public.

Other tornadic storms affected several more western Kentucky counties, with some reports of 500,000 to 700,000 dollars worth of damage. Only a couple of minor to serious injuries were reported but no deaths.

Last Year's Winners (Snowfall east of the Mississippi River)

247.9  Redfield NY
242.1  Osceola NY
231.6  Hooker NY
227.6  Marquette MI
211.5  Bergland Dam MI
207.4  Munising MI
196.7  Perrysburg NY
185.0  Springville NY
182.8  Ironwood MI
                        


Also, Mount Washington NH, "Home of the World's Worst Weather", tallied 314.3" for the snow season running from Jul 1 2018 - Jun 30 2019

Remember too, the snowfall totals above also reflect the standard snow season from Jul 1 2018 through Jun 30 2019.

Friday, November 8, 2019

MikJournal Moment 11/08/2019

Lows of 25 at the Louisville airport (official) and 24 at my house this morning.
Lexington BG airport and Mesonet at 23 degrees.
A few of the usual colder spots made it into the teens this morning.

Upper teens on track for Lexington and maybe Louisville early next week; the last time each of those locations recorded a November morning in the teens was in 2015 (Lex) and 2014 (Louisville)

3rd wettest October on record for Kentucky

Barrow AK is over 20 degrees above normal through the first week of November with a hi/lo average of 26.1 degrees. That's warmer than Williston ND, Minot ND, Grand Forks ND, Duluth MN, and Marquette MI, just to name a few. What makes this more impressive is that Barrow, located near the Arctic circle, is losing daylight at an astonishing rate now that we've entered the month of November. In fact the nearly 4.5 hours of daylight today will be reduced to nothing by November 19 when the Sun will not rise above the horizon again until January 23, 2020.


Friday, November 1, 2019

Annual Rant About Winter "Forecasts"

Welcome to November! The air is quite crisp this morning. The growing season is over. Well, almost. My rosemary plant is the only one standing in the garden this morning. It's a hardy plant and can withstand temperatures down to the single digits. So, that low of 28 degrees at my house was not a big deal.

So, we had a nice foretaste of winter. I had a few snowflakes mixed with graupel and rain for the last day of October. Wind chills were impressive, too. It makes us wonder how the upcoming winter will unfold.

Well, do we have a treat for you. Guess what? It's that time of year when your favorite media source promotes its own brand of the seasonal winter forecast, using chief meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, serious professionals called upon to entertain you with a combination of high-sounding scientific jargon and a tinge of sales-pitch delivery.

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy these annual 'segments'. They are fun to watch. I like hearing how each of the television personalities concocts its own opinions about how the winter season will progress. Often, they already know what the audience wants; therefore, they develop and center their 'forecast' around the nagging questions, "How much snow will I get?" or "Will we have any ice storms?"

But, there's a conflict of interest here. You see, your local media source is generally part of a national organization, a local affiliate with FOX, ABC, NBC, and CBS. What matters to them is ratings. They could care less if a forecast is right or wrong. It's about the people who tune in to watch. What can we give them to keep them coming back?

Since many dream of those romantic scenes of a late evening snow falling peacefully onto neighborhood yards and streets illuminated by the street lights, especially around the holidays, you know, a White Christmas, bundled up in multiple layers, a scarf and hat, taking a lovely stroll along the sidewalk, and then the sheer beauty of an untouched, snow-covered field glistening in the early morning sunlight, let's have our professionals do their professional stuff but deliver it in a way that's enthusiastic, or even if there is not much hope of a snowy winter, appeal to the audience's desire and give them that glimmer of hope.

In other words, don't focus so much on your profession you television atmospheric scientists with your NWA or AMS seal of approval. Tell the people what they want to hear when discussing these 'forecasts'. Don't worry about it. Nobody is going to remember what you said, but how you said it. You said it with their feelings in mind, their concerns, their hopes. You made it your feelings, your concerns, and your hopes. Just like a salesman.

I will say that I appreciate the government-sponsored outlooks provided by the NWS or other private institutions who focus solely on providing a timely, hopefully accurate assessment of its seasonal prediction to those decision makers who rely on these outlooks. So, there is really no need for our local weather heroes to get involved in all that.

I still remember watching wrestling programs on television in the 1980's. I sure thought it was real. I kept coming back. Later, I found out it was all a show, entertainment. What a letdown! And of course, the WWF, or the World Wrestling Federation, is now called the WWE, World Wrestling ENTERTAINMENT.

I can use the same alphabet above related to these winter 'forecasts'.  The WWF, or the World of Winter Forecasters should be renamed as the WWE, the World of Winter Entertainment.

Whatever the case, enjoy the show, and hopefully the snow.

MS

Tornadoes on Easter Sunday

This is a worse case scenario. Tornadoes and flooded, blocked roadways making for great difficulties reaching residences affecting hard hit ...