Annual Rant About Winter "Forecasts"

Welcome to November! The air is quite crisp this morning. The growing season is over. Well, almost. My rosemary plant is the only one standing in the garden this morning. It's a hardy plant and can withstand temperatures down to the single digits. So, that low of 28 degrees at my house was not a big deal.

So, we had a nice foretaste of winter. I had a few snowflakes mixed with graupel and rain for the last day of October. Wind chills were impressive, too. It makes us wonder how the upcoming winter will unfold.

Well, do we have a treat for you. Guess what? It's that time of year when your favorite media source promotes its own brand of the seasonal winter forecast, using chief meteorologists, atmospheric scientists, serious professionals called upon to entertain you with a combination of high-sounding scientific jargon and a tinge of sales-pitch delivery.

Don't get me wrong. I enjoy these annual 'segments'. They are fun to watch. I like hearing how each of the television personalities concocts its own opinions about how the winter season will progress. Often, they already know what the audience wants; therefore, they develop and center their 'forecast' around the nagging questions, "How much snow will I get?" or "Will we have any ice storms?"

But, there's a conflict of interest here. You see, your local media source is generally part of a national organization, a local affiliate with FOX, ABC, NBC, and CBS. What matters to them is ratings. They could care less if a forecast is right or wrong. It's about the people who tune in to watch. What can we give them to keep them coming back?

Since many dream of those romantic scenes of a late evening snow falling peacefully onto neighborhood yards and streets illuminated by the street lights, especially around the holidays, you know, a White Christmas, bundled up in multiple layers, a scarf and hat, taking a lovely stroll along the sidewalk, and then the sheer beauty of an untouched, snow-covered field glistening in the early morning sunlight, let's have our professionals do their professional stuff but deliver it in a way that's enthusiastic, or even if there is not much hope of a snowy winter, appeal to the audience's desire and give them that glimmer of hope.

In other words, don't focus so much on your profession you television atmospheric scientists with your NWA or AMS seal of approval. Tell the people what they want to hear when discussing these 'forecasts'. Don't worry about it. Nobody is going to remember what you said, but how you said it. You said it with their feelings in mind, their concerns, their hopes. You made it your feelings, your concerns, and your hopes. Just like a salesman.

I will say that I appreciate the government-sponsored outlooks provided by the NWS or other private institutions who focus solely on providing a timely, hopefully accurate assessment of its seasonal prediction to those decision makers who rely on these outlooks. So, there is really no need for our local weather heroes to get involved in all that.

I still remember watching wrestling programs on television in the 1980's. I sure thought it was real. I kept coming back. Later, I found out it was all a show, entertainment. What a letdown! And of course, the WWF, or the World Wrestling Federation, is now called the WWE, World Wrestling ENTERTAINMENT.

I can use the same alphabet above related to these winter 'forecasts'.  The WWF, or the World of Winter Forecasters should be renamed as the WWE, the World of Winter Entertainment.

Whatever the case, enjoy the show, and hopefully the snow.

MS