Thursday, November 16, 2017

MikJournal Midweek 11/16/2017... A Lot of Data




Good afternoon. My expected midweek post was a little bit delayed. I had an influx of data to pore over and did not have time to write much of it out .

The map above is another winter weather prediction, this time from Dr. Judah Cohen, from AER (Atmospheric and Environmental Research). He has an interesting take on winter forecasting, using just a few main variables that occur during the Fall, and makes predictions how the atmosphere (both troposphere and stratosphere) will adjust to the known variables in play. Arctic sea ice levels and October Eurasian snow cover extent are just a couple of players he looks at in his forecast. You can find his winter weather forecast here.

In the meantime, I was looking over some data for the state of Kentucky during October. Did you know our state had its 9th wettest October during the last 123 years?

Lexington and Frankfort contributed to that statistic by recording top ten wettest Octobers.

Mesonet sites in Muhlenberg and Ohio counties recorded double-digit amounts at 12.16 and 10.01" respectively.

Teleconnections have been all over the place during the past few days. No clear and definable trend has led me to believe there is not much support for any winter storm for our region during the holiday period. Still, with projected normal to below normal readings, one cannot rule out some nearby snowflakes, but nothing that would impact travel at least here.

Although we cannot rule out isolated severe thunderstorms during the next storm system, no widespread severe weather is expected. But, gradient winds can do just as much damage, as was evidenced during last weekend's bout here in Louisville, where winds reached 50-55 mph.

Analogs do support a heavy rain threat, with 1" amounts likely. WPC suggests 0.50 - 1.00" for central and eastern Kentucky during the next few days.

Everyone who reads the journal regularly knows I like to make projections about monthly temperatures and/or precipitation.

Well, temperatures are about to go below normal for the month. How will we finish? We could be looking at a below normal November unless we have a few well-above normal temperature days. But, like I said earlier, through the holiday week, we are expecting near normal to below normal readings to persist.

More updates this weekend if necessary.

MS



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