Heat Cheat

As some of you may know, I performed some cursory projections about the month of June for temperatures at certain locations in the state. Well, it's almost the end of the month, and the projections for some are still too close to call.

Bowling Green is solidly below normal for the month and stands the best chance for having their first below normal June since 2006.

Other locations are not so clear cut. For example, Lexington came into this second to the last day of the month with a -0.1 degree departure from normal. Today and tomorrow should feature above normal readings. Will it be enough to go above normal for the month? Probably, but it will be very close.

Frankfort looks like they too will finish above normal, since they came into today with a 0.1 degree departure from normal. Again, pretty close.

Louisville. What can be said about the 'heat island capital of the country'? Numbers earlier this week were favoring a near normal June, perhaps even a tad below. But, it appears the heat island effect will preserve the string of above normal June's for an 8th consecutive year, again not by a large margin though.

Interestingly, Louisville's Bowman Field, just down the road but with much less concrete, came into this day with a -0.3 degree temperature departure from normal. They stand a chance to finish with a slightly below normal June for the first time since 2006.

Surprisingly, Bowman Field averaged above normal for June 2009, while its nearest neighbor, the official site at Louisville International, came in just a tad below normal. Over 9" fell at the official site for the month, perhaps offsetting the heat island effect just enough to dip into the below normal range.

I believe a much drier month, allowing for the heat island effect to hold sway, contributed to a warmer scenario, cheating if you will, for another above normal June. Bowman Field recorded just a little more rainfall (about a 0.25"), and their temperature may finish below normal. Obviously, the concrete is less at this location too. This may not be a valid conclusion, but I do know it's significant enough to warrant NWS Louisville to think about switching 'official' locations. Not just because this month is obvious. There has been numerous instances where the heat island effect has skewed the numbers (regarding temperatures especially) in the past.

Don't get me wrong. I still think having both reporting stations is a good thing. But, I also think the official location should represent the overall region better than the one at Louisville International.

MS