Analogs Says Widespread Severe Weather Likely For Parts of Kentucky

Yes, it's still early and we do not know just yet where and if these 'ingredients' will all come together, but the CIPS Top 15 analogs has some powerful past storms in its list, and Kentucky and Tennessee are in the crosshairs.

While the CIPS is just one part of my equation for identifying severe potential, it has a good track record when the percentages are above 50%.

The whole state is in that 50 percent or higher range. On my scale of 1-9, where 1 is most likely and 10 is least likely for severe weather reports, some parts of Kentucky are in a 3. Typically, I look for numbers in the 1-5 category for widespread severe damage.

Therefore, it is looking increasingly likely that some severe weather reports will affect our region, and a distressing signal that significant parts of our region will see widespread damage.

Later today and tonight is a Weather Radio On Standby alert. Have those weather radios prepared and follow or tune in to your preferred media choice for further updates on this potential for severe weather.

Stay safe...
MS

Following Severe Storm in Dalton Georgia 05/24/2017

Getting several reports of trees on homes of residences, police checking on residents.

A tornado warning was issued earlier for Dalton

Areas of damage near 2nd Street, also along Cleveland ave.

Heard of large tree blocking roadway to nursing home

Overturned vehicle along with 'heavy debris'.

So far, some reports of heavy debris, but no structural damage except for trees on homes

Tornado Warning has expired...

Warnings out heading for Calhoun GA
Warning out now for St Augustine beach

MikJournal Monday 05/22/2017 Another Stubborn Trough

I'm seeing a pattern here. Another in a series of stubborn, slow-moving low pressure systems meandering across the country, bringing showery conditions and cooler temperatures. My young garden does not know any better. I try to explain to my plants that this is not usually the way the weather behaves here this time of year. But, somehow I get the sense that my plants don't necessarily understand me either.

However, let me say as of this date, the 22nd of May, Louisville's average temperature (the daily high and nightly low divided by 2) is now 1.4 degrees above normal for the month. This follows a prolonged period of below normal readings. Lexington, you are now 2.0 degrees above normal. In addition, you in Lexington have officially recorded more rainfall than Louisville, by about 0.25".

Bowling Green is running nearly 2 degrees above normal and has recorded 4.40" in the rain gauge. Their weekend rainfall was 2.65" officially.

In fact, here in Louisville, there was quite a variety of amounts recorded over the weekend. I live in the southwest part of the county in Valley Station where I picked up 2.56". A little farther to my southwest (about 4-5 miles away), a rain gauge measured 2.76". Yet, a nearby school no more than 0.25 mile away northwest of my location, its rain gauge measured 2.13". Pleasure Ridge Park had 2.23". Just north of that is Shively at 2.39".

However, just east of my location in Fairdale, only 1.32" was recorded, the airport at Standiford Field officially recorded 1.19". In the eastern part of the county, barely an inch was recorded at a St. Matthews school.

Even though I do not rely on QPF forecasts completely, when I checked it early last week, a forecast of 1.50 to 2.50" was expected across much of Kentucky.

A look at Kentucky Mesonet sites for the period of Friday thru Sunday, I found a top ten list for you...

Hardinsburg, in Breckenridge County, actually had two locations in the top ten...(1) - 3.24"; also (6) - 2.35".
(2) - Carrollton, in Carroll County at 3.11"
(3) - Brandenburg, in Meade County at 2.90"
(4) - Pikeville, in Pike County at 2.50"
(5) - Cynthiana, in Harrison County at 2.49"
(7) - Owenton, in Owen County at 2.31"
(8) - Paintsville, in Johnson County at 2.20"
(9) - Morehead, in Rowan County at 1.93"
(10) - Whitley City, in McCreary County at 1.64"

Certainly, we do want to forget about Scottsville, in Allen County. Even though they did not crack the top ten for the Friday thru Sunday time frame, they recorded 6.00" of rainfall for the last 5 days. Amazing! In addition, our friends in Pikeville received 3.83" during the last 5 days.

More wet weather is on tap for the week. But, for now, let's enjoy the next couple of days before the wet and cool arrive later. I know I have a lot of work to do. Well, time to get at it.

MS

MikJournal Monday 05/15/2017...TornadoTalk

Welcome to another installment of MikJournal Monday. Unfortunately, I haven't been as regular as I would like to when it comes to posting information.

But this is gardening season. Gotta get the crops in the ground. And lately, well, it's been too cool and damp to suit my taste. So, I am running a little bit behind schedule. But, that's okay. Last year, I did not get all my vegetables in the ground until almost Memorial Day, and I had the best pepper garden ever.

This year, my garden will have these plants: 4 Bell Peppers, 2 Bertha Bell Peppers, 2 Anaheim Chili peppers, 1 Jalapeno pepper, 2 Sweet Banana peppers, 1 Habanero pepper, 2 Zucchini, 1 Yellow Squash, and Tomato.

In addition to the Rosemary that is already in the garden, I also have Thyme in a pot by itself that keeps coming back year after year. I am also supplementing 3 more herbs in a large rectangular pot that will house Cilantro, Spearmint, and Spicy Oregano.

Hopefully, the weather will cooperate. I already have my 66-gallon rain barrel completely full. So, even if I am running low in the rainfall department, I have plenty to draw from to get the plants established.

In Louisville, we are running about 2.5 degrees below average for the month. In fact, the last time Louisville had a monthly temperature below average was May of last year.

The average temperature for the next few days is about 66 degrees here (when you take the high temperature and add the low temperature, then divide by 2). We will be probably be running above the mean at least for a few days before another brief cooldown by this time next week.

Speaking of average temperatures, on the days of May 8-10, our average temperature was supposed to be 65 degrees. Here's how we fared...

May 8th - 8 degrees below average
May 9th - 7 degrees above average
May 10th - 12 degrees above average

Interestingly, that 65 degree average is seen somewhere else besides above or below average statistics. It is also found in the heating and cooling degree days calculation. Primarily used for estimating power and/or fuel consumption for residential and business dwellings, this 65 degree base is used. Any average over 65 degrees counts as cooling degree days and any average below 65 degrees counts as heating degree days. Therefore...

May 8th - 8 heating degree days
May 9th - 7 cooling degree days
May 10th - 12 cooling degree days

Finally, you will notice that I have added another Pick on the side of the blog. It's called TornadoTalk. Usually, I subscribe to the podcasts of all the episodes. I have really enjoyed the podcasts. Even without video, you still capture the human emotion behind the interviews. From an adrenaline rush to compassion to disbelief.

I just recently listened to Episode 30 entitled How Close is Too Close? An excellent panel with storm chasers, emergency management officials, reporters, meteorologists. I discovered a wide range of personal emotions as I listened to how close some are willing to go to get that shot of a tornado doing its thing.

I have listened to at least 4 episodes and have enjoyed every one of them. They also have a twitter feed and a NWS twitter feed from various local offices on their Web site. I highly recommend it!

Have a good week.

MS

Worst Tornado Outbreak in Oklahoma History

I recall the date like it was just the other day. But this was 1999, yes, 18 years ago. Thanks to the Southeast Regional Climate Center for their This Day in Weather History, we can revisit these dates of May 3 and 4 and envision the terror of all of those strong tornadoes, the worst outbreak in Oklahoma history.

The Moore, OK tornado was rated an EF-5, and a truck-mounted Doppler radar measured a wind speed of 318 mph, the highest ever observed in a tornado.

Also, I included a podcast from Tornado Talk Episode 2 of a May 4 tornado that struck Greensburg, KS in 2007 leveling nearly the entire town.  Enjoy the video...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wzlr_91GFdo

MS