Yes, it's still early and we do not know just yet where and if these 'ingredients' will all come together, but the CIPS Top 15 analogs has some powerful past storms in its list, and Kentucky and Tennessee are in the crosshairs.
While the CIPS is just one part of my equation for identifying severe potential, it has a good track record when the percentages are above 50%.
The whole state is in that 50 percent or higher range. On my scale of 1-9, where 1 is most likely and 10 is least likely for severe weather reports, some parts of Kentucky are in a 3. Typically, I look for numbers in the 1-5 category for widespread severe damage.
Therefore, it is looking increasingly likely that some severe weather reports will affect our region, and a distressing signal that significant parts of our region will see widespread damage.
Later today and tonight is a Weather Radio On Standby alert. Have those weather radios prepared and follow or tune in to your preferred media choice for further updates on this potential for severe weather.
Stay safe...
MS
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