SQUALCON Watch for Monday

UPDATE 1:00pm edt
Preliminary look at Tuesday's severe threat may be higher than Monday's. Huh??
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First, this morning's light show is very impressive as I look to my north in the waning night sky. This complex of storms does indeed pack a punch of pure power with plentiful pops of lightning. Heavy rain and dangerous lightning look to be the primary threat.

As far as severe threats go, there could be isolated reports today but am not concerned about widespread issues except for flooding.

My focus is for tomorrow, Monday, July 13. An increasing probability for widespread severe weather has bombarded me from all directions.

Therefore, I am issuing a SQUALCON Watch for Kentucky tomorrow. Any value above 3 on a scale of 1 to 5 indicates an increasing likelihood for severe weather, especially on a regional level, as a cluster or squall line of storms is expected to impact the region.

I have good reasons to elevate this threat. Current value is already approaching a 4.0, which represents widespread damaging wind threats. Supporting evidence includes:

Analogs - The top 5 ranked analogs out of 15 that affect us on a regional level average out to 7, and this is still outside of my normal timeframe for consideration. Any average ranking of 7 or lower represents a bullish stance for widespread severe thunderstorms.

SPC has placed much of the region in a Moderate Risk shading for Monday.

Also, I forgot to mention that one of the analogs is from a storm complex dated July 13, 2004. Anyone in the weather circle will recall that date of the Derecho of 2004.

Local NWS office in Louisville is raising awareness of the impending possibility of a widespread event.

Stay tuned to local media and have those programmed weather radios ready.

MS