More Severe Threats?

Friday had severe weather reports in a swath of real estate covering central and eastern Kentucky. I had no Internet access for parts of two days (change in provider) and therefore had no access to charts or even radar to help pinpoint severe weather chances.

However, I did perform a running archive and found the normal, at least normal for me, NAM top 15 analogs for 24 hours out. It revealed a rather bullish stance for severe weather in Kentucky.

I take the top 5 analogs that pertain to our region, if I can find any, add them up, and divide by five to get an averaged ranking. On a scale of 3 being the most bullish and 13 being the least bullish, I registered a 5.2 averaged ranking for Friday's storm complex. A rather bullish or favorable indication for severe weather.

What about Sunday's chances? Won't really know till later tonight. At the moment, there is a number 2 ranked analog from the middle of June 2009 that had one of those long-lasting bow echo types that raced across Southern Indiana into central Kentucky and brought widespread wind damage.

However, this is offset by bottom feeding analogs in the top 15 that are currently skewing the average ranking. But, this is not the normal run I use anyway. That run will be tonight.

Remember though, these storm complexes are difficult to forecast. So far this year, the models have an abysmal record of accurately forecasting these things. So, analogs will help me pinpoint a severe likelihood.

Since this is a regional focus, it may be hard to narrow exactly where the most likely places to see severe weather. But, if there will be severe storms, current indications include northern, northeastern, and eastern Kentucky. This may change by tonight's normal run of the top 15 analogs.

Stay tuned...

MS