Analog Time - Super Snow Sunday?

Yes, the models are still coming to grips with a storm system approaching from the southwest coupled with another disturbance north of that one.

One thing I like to look at during a time like this are the top analogs for this type of storm system. I have been really successful at looking at these.

First, look at the top 5 analogs. Then, see which ones remain in the top 5 over a period of time.

Last, compare the model runs with the most consistent top 5 analog and take note of any differences.

Right now, I'm looking at the #2 ranked analog dating to February 25-27, 1993, an impressive winter storm that dumped several inches on the state of Kentucky. It is worth noting that both the GFS and NAM analog show this feature ranked #2.

During that storm, nearly 10" snow fell near Owensboro while 6-8" fell from Paducah to Louisville to Covington. 2-6" fell across the rest of the state.

Indiana was buried as well. From a line south of Terre Haute to Lawrenceburg, 7-11" fell. In Evansville, 11" fell, Bloomington had 8", and Indianapolis 6".

This storm system from 1993 just came into play with the last couple of runs. Therefore, it is important to see if future analog guidance continues to support this along with model guidance, which should begin sampling data tomorrow.

So, the potential is there for a decent snow storm. Let's see how it plays out over the next couple of days.

MS

Lowest Tornado Count Since 1988???

Since there is not much snow to talk about, let's talk about tornadoes.  The 2014 annual tornado count is near completion. According to the National Climatic Data Center (NCDC), 831 confirmed tornadoes have occurred in the United States with another 50 pending. This is well below the 20-year average of 1253.

Therefore, 2014 will likely go down as the least amount of tornadoes confirmed since 1988, a span of over 25 years.

Furthermore, the 47 tornado-related fatalities is the lowest number since 2009 when only 22 deaths were reported.

MS