Briefly, the latest runs of the NAM are picking up on what forecasters have been talking about for the Sunday into Monday time frame and the potential for accumulating snow in the region.
At the moment, it's still indeterminable how the NAM will progress with each run. The latest run is the 18z, which I do not like to follow. For some reason and that's just the way I am, I prefer either the 00z or 12z runs.
Within the next 12-24 hours, we may begin to 'see' how this storm system will develop and compare this model (which I consider superior to the other models in this close) with the other running models.
At this moment, the NAM shows 850mb readings that support snow for the Sunday night into Monday morning time frame. However, far southeast KY looks to be too warm at that level.
Don't fret. It is the 18z run and it's just coming into view on the NAM's 'radar scope'. Plenty of time for adjustments. The most accurate time frame for the NAM is generally the 24-36 hour estimated time of arrival window using either the 00z or the 12z runs.
MS
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