A Look At Analogs

Whenever the models are having issues, I try and look at past weather systems and see how these 'make sense' regarding the setup for this weekend's potential winter weather.

Yesterday, I commented on a GFS analog from December 08-09, 1995. Today, it still shows itself as the number 1 ranked analog for this storm system. But, does it make sense?

After putting down up to 2" across western KY primarily and causing numerous accidents, a blast of extremely cold air followed. Temperatures were widespread in the single digits for lows and highs struggling into the mid teens.

So, leave that track on the table. A stripe of snow along the Ohio River.

However, the analog that is catching my attention today is the number 7 ranked analog, also from 1995. It lines up very well in many categories and makes a little more sense than the above analog.

Some models now are showing a storm system riding up the Appalachians spreading snows on the northwest side of this thing, putting areas of central and eastern KY in a sweet spot for decent accumulations.

This November 29, 1995 analog is showing something similar. From Ashland to London/Corbin, a swath of generally 2-4" came out of that system.

Remember this though. The stronger the system, the warmer the air. Ideally, one would want to see this storm system strengthen as it passes just east of the region, putting the northwest side in line for heavy accumulations.

If the upcoming system strengthens too early, snow chances go down except on the backside when a decent accumulation can still take place around a deformation zone.

In other words, I would expect to see the wintry scenario affecting areas from Bowling Green to Ashland. Significant snowfall amounts may occur anywhere along that line.

Personally, I want to look at the NAM as this storm system will be falling within its 84-hour window soon. That's my thoughts for now. More later.

MS