Analog For This Week

Looking at a GFS analog for later this week showed the number one date of the fifteen different analogs. It was December 15-16, 2008.

Conditions in Louisville were wet and mild initially. After frontal passage, temperatures tanked from a high near 60 to 24 degrees. The following day, temperatures struggled to reach the 32 degree mark. Snow showers accumulated across the region.

Louisville recorded 1.1"; Lexington reported 2.5".

This is just one analog, and it's the GFS, and it's a few days out. Take it for what it's worth.

Let's just say this system will need to be watched as we get closer to the event. Lots of rain is forecast on the front end while wintry precipitation is expected to make a quick appearance after frontal passage.

This reminds me of numerous past weather systems that are slow moving and have large temperature gradients over a small distance. With that said, I recall instances when heavy snow had set up a hundred miles or so north of the boundary.

We'll just have to wait for further refinements to the forecast to determine whether this will be a progressive or stationary event. Progressive means less snow and overall precip; stationary means more snow in the colder air and more overall precip for the rest of us near the boundary.

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UPDATE 12/02/2013
183800

I just viewed another analog worthy of mention...
The snow/ice storm of January 8-9 1999
Snowfall amounts of 4" in northern KY and southern IN; up to 8" in some areas
Freezing rain occurred over a large area of Kentucky.

Here is a weather map of that storm system
http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1999/08-Jan-99-SurfaceMaps.html

Thanks for the map...
MS