OFFICIAL 2012/2013 Winter Forecast

Although I'm offering my thoughts for Kentucky and Southern Indiana, I do provide a summary of how this winter will affect the various climate sections of the United States. Therefore, those who live outside of the Kentucky/Southern Indiana region can figure out how their winter may unfold based on the data I selected.

The first thing you will notice is that there is no map. I have the paper and the technology. So, let me explain  why I chose not to use a map.

I shared some research data the other day in a post while working on the winter forecast. Reviewing the information, expect more extreme weather for the upcoming year based on startling data from the Arctic region.

Arctic Sea Ice Extent reached an all-time low in September. Here is a term you're going to love, Arctic Amplification. Enhanced warming of the Arctic slows the west-east jet stream there and promotes more of a north-south flow. Pinpointing when and where that north-south flow (amplification) will be is still quite difficult. However, one thing is for sure. As more solar energy penetrates the Arctic Ocean where ice used to be, expect more extreme weather here in the States and Western Europe.

That's why I chose not to use a map. One just cannot predict where the extreme weather will set up. The intensity will vary as well.

Next, I don't promote global warming. However, one cannot escape the data that supports it.

For example, the October CO2 data from Mauna Loa, Hawaii continues to show an uptrend. The data from last October was 388.92 ppm. This October, the reading was 391.01 ppm.

Apparently, rising CO2 emissions continue contributing to extreme weather events.

Pay attention to the Sea-Surface temperatures. El Nino and La Nina do not appear to be factors this upcoming winter. However, there's been a cool fetch from Hawaii to Southern California. We'll see how this affects moisture transport.

Pacific North American pattern (PNA) values registered negative during October. As we approach the colder months, if the PNA remains negative, expect more split flows in the jet stream. That makes life exciting around here in Kentucky. However, there are indications that the PNA will turn positive again in December, thus shutting off the split flows.

Snowpack in North America and the Northern Hemisphere is more widespread than last year at this time. That could bode well for snow lovers.

The main event could be related to the Arctic Oscillation. Negative values in October mean average to above average snowfall for Louisville Kentucky. While professionals focus more on the NAO, both of these teleconnectors are short term prognosticators, unreliable for anything outside of two weeks.

However, look to the Arctic regions for our upcoming winter weather. The amplification could rear its head here. Pay close attention to the AO in the upcoming weeks. Negative values will support colder transport of air. Any strong systems from the Alaskan/Northwest regions along with colder values may set the stage for tremendous snowfall amounts for some.

SUMMARY

Wet/Snowy Northwest
Drier than normal southern California and southwest U.S.
Cold Midwest and average snowfall
Average to above average snowfall in CO, OK, MO, KY, VA, and WV.
Average snowfall in the mid-Atlantic
Cold and Average to Above average snowfall in the Northeast
Wetter than normal in southern Florida
Drier than normal in northern FL and GA

CONCLUSION

Louisville KY (Dec-Feb) 12-19"
Lexington KY                  13-20"
Bowling Green KY           9-16"
Paducah KY                    10-17"
Jackson KY                     14-22"
Indianapolis IN                 14-21"
Cincinnati OH                   14-21"

Remember, these values are based on my traditional 60-30 percent forecast. There is an increased chance for extreme winter weather for our part of the world that is not factored into the above numbers.

I will post this to the blog for easy access.

MS