Severe Weather Watch Possible

At 2:30pm edt, thunderstorms are beginning to intensify just west of Mississippi river. Right now, there is a modest cap over our region. If the cap can erode in time, look for a strong line of storms to push through the area later this evening. I would say the most likely threat with this line will be strong winds.

I'll be following storm reports and local police scanners for the latest updates.

Severe storms would most likely favor an area west of Louisville. I would rate a 70% chance for a Watch to be issued. I would position the Watch from I-65 west with the northern boundary being around Columbus IN and the southern boundary being around Munfordville.

We'll wait and see for now. Stay safe.
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3:35pm UPDATE
Severe Thunderstorm WATCH in effect for areas along and west of I-65. Look for storms to continue intensifying...

Right now, no warnings in effect.

MS

A Drier Than Normal April???

Take a look at this map for the month of March's rain days...

According to the NWS office here in Louisville, we received measurable precipitation (>0.01") on 13 days throughout March. While total monthly rainfall that exceeded 6" did not meet the top ten wettest criteria for March, it was still a fairly wet month.

As for the warm temperatures, March went down as the warmest on record, not just for us here in Louisville, but hundreds of locations across the U.S.

Ironically, it was also our snowiest month of the winter, coming in at 3.5".

Here in April, temperatures are still averaging above normal, a little over 3 degrees or so. Although, we have received only 4 days of rainfall (not counting today), precipitation totals are coming in just below normal. Today's rainfall may actually even the average for the month.

Although rainfall amounts appear to be acceptable, look for possible drought-like conditions across parts of the region over the next couple of weeks, thanks in part to the warmer than average temperatures and its effects of evapotranspiration.

In addition, lack of a soaking rain system for our part of the region could lead to a worsening (drier) situation if we do not receive a storm system that will provide us with that type of rainfall.

The CPC says to expect drier than average rainfall amounts for the days 6-10  but above average rainfall for the days 10-14.

Also, temperatures are expected to go below normal for the first part, while above normal is expected for the latter half.

Here is an additional chart...

MS

Tornado Coverage in Dallas/Ft Worth Area

3:30pm update LAST UPDATE
In summary, lots of heavy damage from at least 2 confirmed tornadoes in the Tarrant county/Dallas county areas. Primarily, between Ft Worth and Arlington and surrounding areas like Kennedale, Pleasant Ridge road area and Green Oaks blvd near Lindberg; So far, only minor injuries reported.
Regarding building collapse with people trapped, only 1 person needed to be transported by medic.
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3:25pm update
Oncor reports 19,000 outages in Tarrant county; over 9,000 in Dallas county
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3:15pm update
Near Green Oaks area and west Barden or Varden house completely demolished; gas leak...evacuations being suggested
Another storm cell coming up from the south, not tornadic but has heavy rain and strong winds.
Checking for power outages....
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3:10pm update
Multiple houses in Green Oaks area lots of damage and debris
So far, no injuries in that area
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3:00pm update
Minor injuries being reported
Motor home blown sideways across street
Nursing home in Green Oaks area being checked out
Actual tornado touchdown in Kennedale, south of Arlington
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2:55pm update
Checking for injuries at an apartment complex that sustained heavy damage
Heavy damage and collapse being reported
Building collapse with people trapped; possible injuries not yet confirmed
No injuries being reported at Chesterfield apartments above
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2:45pm update
You can see the video footage on FOX station below and the Weather Channel. Trees visibly being ripped out of the ground and being tossed; trucking company suffering extensive damage to the trucks.

Now following police scanner...updates shortly...
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2:30pm update

Weather Channel following this as well...excellent video footage of tornado on the ground, power flashes, amazing footage.
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2 confirmed tornadoes on the ground in southern Dallas county and Tarrant county
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Large tornado near DeSoto and Lancaster. Following LIVE tornado footage on their FOX affiliate.
This is just south of Ft Worth. Could approach Arlington in a little bit or between Ft Worth and Arlington.

http://www.myfoxdfw.com/subindex/news/live_news

Tornado Emergency now in effect for those locations...

MS

MCS Alert...and Stock Alert???

Most of the region is outlined in a 'slight risk' category for severe thunderstorms today/tonight. Another Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) is forecast to develop to our north and ride south-southeastward, producing heavy rain, lots of lightning, strong winds, and possibly large hail.

Here's a definition from the NWS glossary for MCS...


Mesoscale Convective System. A complex of thunderstorms which becomes organized on a scale larger than the individual thunderstorms, and normally persists for several hours or more. MCSs may be round or linear in shape, and include systems such as tropical cyclones, squall lines, and Mesoscale Convective Complexes (MCCs) (among others). MCS often is used to describe a cluster of thunderstorms that does not satisfy the size, shape, or duration criteria of an Mesoscale Convective Complex.

By the way, congratulations to our Kentucky Wildcats for winning the NCAA championship.

Looks like I'll be investing in furniture stocks this week on Wall Street, thanks to all of the couch burnings during the past few days.

Perhaps, La-Z-Boy, stock ticker LZB on the New York Stock Exchange.

If you are interested in a few 'meteorological' stock symbols, here's a few companies to consider...
The Marcus Corporation (MCS)
CAI International (CAP)
Lowe's Companies (LOW)
Pyramid Oil Company (PDO)

MS

Severe Potential...4/1/12

No April Fools...Severe weather could occur today at any time and/or anybody for that matter.
I just checked the latest Lift Indices for the region and saw a few readings in the -10 range. That is crazy sick. These readings are along a warm front still poised to our west but is making some eastward progress. As other conditions become favorable, look for a line of strong/severe storms to develop along and out ahead of the front.

Temperatures in west Ky are already above 80 degrees with associated dewpoints above 60 degrees.

While tornado threat remains low, hail still looks like a very likely threat. And I always say that the same storm cells that contain hail are distant cousins of those that produce tornadoes. It only takes a couple of additional parameters to achieve these.

After experiencing pea-size hail this morning, hail sizes could approach golf-ball size this afternoon for some locations, primarily east of Louisville. But we could still see some activity.

As the afternoon progresses, I would not be surprised to see a Watch issued for central and eastern parts of our state.

Keep eyes out west and northwest for development...

MS

Large Hail Possible Today

I don't think the NWS office here in Louisville handled the convective complex along the warm front very well for the overnight period, as precip probabilities were either extremely low or nil for the Louisville area.

However, as I speak, a noisy thunderstorm is occurring over my location along with a temperature of 48 degrees. Admittedly, the NWS did update their grid to include the area for scattered storms this morning, but this was not the case before the end of the Ohio St/Kansas game last night.

The main focus for today's weather will be the return of very warm temperatures for the region, as highs are expected to breach 80 degrees, AGAIN. This could become the 10th day of 80 or higher for the Louisville area this year. Amazing!

Along with the return of warmer air will bring an increased chance of scattered strong to severe storms. As of this writing, the SPC was showing a swath of the region under a slight risk for severe thunderstorms with large hail as the principal threat. An update will be forthcoming within an hour. Stay tuned...\\

MS