Possible Tornado???

Just got report from police scanner about a funnel with debris near Smyrna road....
Cedar creek road and Mt Washington road under tornado warning

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2:30pm update
Possible tornado has touched down in the Fern Creek area...Report of a house has been either heavily damaged or destroyed...

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3:15pm update
Just saw pictures of damage to the area near Brook Chase ct bordered by Cooper Chapel rd and Cedar Creek rd...EF-1 damage looks likely...only to isolated area; was not a heavily populated area; no injuries being reported, although house pet was injured.

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3:25pm update...Last update
More police reports of damage coming in from the Cedar creek rd area. Saw pics of damage on local news station showing a few structures which sustained heavy damage...

LGE trying to reach area...wires down. Again this is in a limited area near Cooper Chapel rd, Independence School, Brook Chase ct, Cedar Creek rd.


MS

Indiana's Severe Weather Test Alarms

As part of severe weather preparedness month, the test alarms are going off as I speak right now. There are no tornadoes. It is just a test. Still, this may fray a few nerves out there for some of us. Nevertheless, the test sirens are necessary...

MS

Cold Front Pushing Through...(3/8/12)

Currently, here at 11:00am, radar shows a widespread shield of steady, at times, heavy rain across much of Kentucky.

Also, I'm seeing what could be the cold front pushing through parts of southern Indiana now. A line of heavier showers, perhaps accompanied by gusty winds, is passing through Dubois county, and northeast near Seymour in Jackson county.

Temperatures are falling off rapidly behind the front, some 8-10 degrees in about an hour's time.

I expect the front to pass through the Louisville area within the next 2 hours or so. Expect temperatures to fall from the mid and upper 50's to the upper 40's and near 50 by 2pm est.

Rainfall amounts at my location have been less than 0.50" so far, but I do expect at least another 0.25" here before it tapers off later this afternoon.

MS

Enjoying the Snow...While it Lasts

I know it's not going to last very long, but I took my little girl out in the yard, built a little snow community (with castles of course), and even Mommy and Daddy had their picture taken with her...

....Actually, my eyes are blue, but everything else is about right.

MS

Power Outage Update from Snow Primarily

It was indeed a beautiful snow, coated everything in sight, except for a few area roadways. Unfortunately, power lines were coated as well, tree limbs hanging over those wires were coated as well...a recipe for power outages when 2-5" wet, heavy snow have collected on these objects. This may include some counties affected by severe storms the other day.

Here's the latest I could gather from various power companies...
DUKE ENERGY:(8:30am)
Floyd county IN - 924 outages
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LGE/KU/ODP(8:40am)
Jefferson county - 946 outages
Scott county - 957
Franklin - 357
Fayette - 297
Woodford - 179
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CLARK ENERGY COOP(5:40am)
Clark county - 839
Bourbon - 362

MS

Snowfall Reports 3/3/12 0400

What a beautiful sight. The snow here at my location has ended as of this writing but measured 2.3" on my snowboard. The NWS office here in Louisville has compiled a nice list of snowfall reports.

In general, 3-4" fell across parts of Jefferson county in Kentucky. Yet, the roadways are not impacted as much, but currently, slushy roads can at least be expected on secondary roads (untreated).

Snow is still ongoing to my east, but it looks like it is beginning to taper off as well. Reports of 4" or so coming in from Lexington. Amounts may still add up in some of those locations near and east of Lexington.

Pleasant surprise for many but looks like it won't 'stick' around very long.

MS

Now Snow Is in the Forecast???

What a turbulent pattern of weather we've seen this late winter. The battle is on between surging spring and the 'no-show' (or should I say 'no-snow') winter for many of us.

After spring swung and landed a violent punch across a large swath of our region, winter is trying to counter-punch with a possible band of accumulating snow, primarily across north-central through east/southeast Kentucky.

Depending on ground and pavement temperatures, snow could accumulate 1 to as much as 4" across those areas.

Quick update on the storm surveys still ongoing (and may be ongoing for quite a while)...

Preliminary results so far include:
Between New Pekin and Henryville Indiana, 2 tornadoes followed nearly the same path.
Tor #1 EF-4 damage to Henryville including the school and several homes
Tor #2 EF-3 damage near New Pekin 

In Jefferson county of Indiana, near Chelsea, EF-4 damage

In Trimble county, Kentucky, 2 tornadoes:
EF-2 and EF-3 damage, including a fire station house

MS

A Time to Come Together...

After a historic day of what could become Kentucky's deadliest tornado outbreak, at least for March, we all need to take time and reflect on what has just happened.

Personally, my area has been spared by the recent rash of tornadic storms. This does not mean that I am oblivious to what has just happened to my fellow Kentuckians and friends in Indiana.

I have loved ones who live in Borden IN and Mt Washington KY. They experienced a measure of damage either from high winds or large hail. However, trying to reach these ones was frustrating as they simply could not be reached for a time. Lots of stress and worry.

Watching the news videos, the looks on people's faces...you just can't forget that, it told everything that needed to be said. So many people dazed, confused, shocked, saddened...I think we all felt it, didn't we?

Even the news people and weather teams trying to keep us updated, informed, and safe, at times even they had to step aside, visibly, for a moment to make sure their loved ones were safe.

Don't forget about the people on the scene, the news crews, emergency communicators, law enforcement, fire officials, emergency medical teams, who witnessed the dire results of the savagery and destructive power of nature's fury.

This will be a topic of conversation for days to come. Hopefully, we can all come together and express our heartfelt and heartbroken concerns for those who have suffered loss and others that were indirectly affected.

I'm sure we'll get through this...Kentuckians are known for "United we stand..."

My personal thoughts and prayers for those that were affected as I'm saddened on this day for my passion for weather.

MS

Severe Weather Alert Mode w/ Updates

3:30pm
John Belski reports that unconfirmed report of Henryville High school destroyed

3:25pm
Severe weather chasers
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase

3:15pm
Fire depts and EMS being dispatched
Serious situation unfolding now entering Clark county
daisy hill rd - several injuries now being reported
Just lost feed to scanner
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3:08pm
Tornado on the ground near Daisy Hill rd...on Clark/Washington county line
Injuries NOW BEING REPORTED
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2:20pm
Storms rapidly firing...approaching Louisville metro within an hour or so
I'm signing off for now
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2:10pm
Golf ball size hail; some reports of hail covering ground
Funnel over airport in E'ville; not touching down
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2:05pm
east of I-164 and north of I64 tornadic cell being tracked. This is near Evansville.
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2:00pm
Crossville, New Harmony possible tornado on the ground
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1:57pm
Posey county, west of E'ville hit hard. Anderson Rd several trees on houses...MM22,23 I64
1:55pm
House down; so far no injuries near Evansville IN
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1:50pm
Tornado Warning Evansville IN
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1:40pm
PDS Tornado Watch for Louisville, Lexington, London, and Bowling Green
TorCon 7 Louisville; TorCon 9 London
Cape Girardeau MO Tornado Warning
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11:25am
PDS Tornado Watch for much of west KY, west and central IN....80% chance for EF-2 or stronger tornadoes within the boxed area.
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As of 8:00 am est, the SPC has put out a rare HIGH risk of severe weather for a large part of central Kentucky. Primary threat - tornadoes. According to the SPC, storm initiation for the main event could begin as early as 1pm est, out toward the Mississippi river area to our west. Also, the continued threat exists that large, long-tracked tornadoes will occur within these areas in the MOD/HIGH risk areas.

The 'numbers' continue to advertise this risk. You will hear these buzzwords often today, such as destabilization, strong jet streak, dewpoint, storm relative helicity values, shear, warm sector, just to name a few. Many of the professionals will be talking about these as they relate to possible tornadic/supercellular development.

Severe thunderstorms are ongoing at this moment along and north of the Ohio river. THESE ARE NOT THE TORNADIC STORMS that are supposed to affect the region later today. Don't be fooled by the sunshine, which I'm now getting here at my location as of 10:30am. I'll be reporting often today.

MS

In The Crosshairs...

Today could  be a historic day for some of us. All indications continue to point to a significant severe weather outbreak. Tornadoes may become the main threat with this storm system. Even if that does not become the main issue, a destructive/damaging squall scenario looks likely. Either way it goes, it looks like at least half of the counties in Kentucky (remember, we have 120 counties) will report some type of severe weather. Nearly the entire state is in the crosshairs for this event.

I hate to be the pessimist and get everyone panicky. The weather situation today could become a rehash of what happened to many communities in Alabama, Missouri, and others where loss of life occurred. If the ingredients do come together as the professionals have consistently harped about, damage to property and loss of life look likely, even with advance warning. These storms could be that strong. For some, rush hour later this evening could become tragic. Hopefully, school systems will not be grossly impacted but there is a chance.

In my next post, I'll be going into Severe Weather Alert Mode with updates. I'll be following the scanners, the spotters in the field, and may even be able to provide my own feedback since I'm also a spotter for the NWS.

Be safe...
MS

Top 15 Analog Years Suggest Severe Weather Outbreak

Look at this recent map of the top 15 analog years for this upcoming potential severe weather episode...

While this is NOT an actual forecast for where severe weather will occur, the numbers suggest that there is a strong likelihood that severe thunderstorms with tornadoes are possible, even long-tracked tornadoes.

Still, the upper air data is just starting to come in. More refinements about possible locations that could be impacted are still forthcoming.

Also, the SPC maintains its prior severe weather risk at Moderate for our region. The hatched marks suggest at least a 10% probability for destructive winds in excess of 70mph and EF-2 to EF-5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a given point.

It's time to get prepared...

More updates later...
MS

Calm Between the Storms

Today will feature relatively calm conditions, on the other side of some rough, tornadic thunderstorms that brought several communities in this great state to its knees, emotionally, but perhaps physically as well, thankful to be alive at least.

However, do not get used to the calm conditions. Another severe weather event is already in the making, which could surpass this most recent event.

As of this hour (4:30am), the SPC has placed a large swath of real estate in a moderate risk for severe weather for your Friday, including much of the same areas that were impacted by yesterday's severe weather.

I'm almost certain if things come together as expected, some areas will be placed under a 'HIGH' risk for severe weather. And do not be surprised if our region is within that bullseye.

MS