Monday, February 13, 2012

Winter Weather Advisory???

3:45pm UPDATE
While I will not say that the NWS office in Louisville is 'dropping the ball', I will publicly decry their inaction for not extending the WWA 'slightly east'. They are the professionals and I'm not, but considering potential impacts to rush hour tomorrow morning, it may not be wise to forgo some of the areas I mentioned earlier today like Louisville, Frankfort, and maybe even Lexington. Too many chances for error including wet-bulbing, changeover, surface temperatures, and so forth. True, I believe main roads should be okay, but travel to and from the main roads could be impacted. What about those school kids? Rush hour traffic? I don't know but I wouldn't risk it by not extending the Advisory.
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12:15pm UPDATE
I just retrieved the data from the GFS 850mb sounding forecast. Looks warmer than the NAM's. That leads me to think more sleet will be mixing in with this thing by morning rush hour here in Louisville. Yes, we should see a light accumulation of snow at first. Precipitation should transition to a mix of snow/sleet then mostly sleet by tomorrow's rush. Treated roadways should be fine, but don't let your guard down. I still think an ADVISORY will be posted due to the timing and impact with this mixed bag of precipitation. This is just a preliminary assessment, as I haven't looked at how the situation will unfold downstate. Rain could be falling south of E'town but haven't considered surface temperatures that may impact falling precipitation.
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So far, the Winter Weather Advisory currently in effect DOES NOT include Louisville but counties west of I-65. Current thinking is that a storm system coming from the west and southwest will continue to weaken; however, widespread light precipitation is expected to overspread the region with a potpourri of precipitation during the next 24 hours.

Here is my current thinking. While I'm still awaiting the preferable GFS data from the 850 mb sounding forecast, the recent NAM 850 mb sounding forecast shows temperatures remaining below freezing in the 5,000 foot range. This will keep most of the precipitation in the form of snow with sleet mixing in later through tomorrow morning's rush  hour here in Louisville.

Based on this assessment only, and not considering the GFS yet, I would expect the Winter Weather Advisory to shift eastward and include the Louisville area due in part to the timing and impact of the mixed precipitation that will affect the area.

Not a big storm by any means. But this type of setup always leads to travel problems. Even if an Advisory is not put in place, take care out there on area roadways and allow plenty of time to reach your destination. Expect main roadways to be treated but don't let your guard down. Slow down! Be courteous of other drivers. You're not the only one trying to make it to your destination.

MS

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