MikJournal Monday 09/30/2019...Record Setting Month Coming to a Close

Good last Monday of a memorable month of September. You are witnessing something that may not be repeated for a very long time.

Several locations like Louisville and Lexington will record their hottest and driest September ever. In fact, it will be the driest month of any year for the respective climatological records.

But, October looks to start out the same way. Therefore, places like Louisville and possibly Lexington will likely set all-time record high temperatures for the month of October.

As you may have noticed, I have not posted a Welcome page for Autumn yet, because it's been too hot. But, temperatures are soon going to return to normal October standards by the end of this week.

At Lexington, annual precipitation stands at 36.51", just 2.03" above normal for the year.  This same time last year, we were closing out a record-setting wet month that bolstered our annual precipitation to 53.75". Wow. What a difference a year makes, from record wettest September in 2018 to record driest month ever 2019.

So, with the cooler air slated to arrive later this month, one would expect a nice line of beneficial rain to impact the area. Well, not so fast my friend. Although some forecast centers like WPC are showing beneficial rainfall for parts of central Kentucky by next Sunday, current local forecasts show dry weather for the rest of the week, with a slight chance (<=20 %) by sometime next weekend, perhaps awaiting future data to determine if the rainfall will be meager or actually for real this time.

Therefore, for places like Lexington, their record 37 day dry streak looks to be in jeopardy. At 33 days currently, if it does not rain by this Friday, a new record will be established.

Annually, it's looking more and more difficult for Lexington to eek out an above normal year in the precipitation department. This could be the driest year since 2012, when Lexington finished nearly 2.5" below normal for the year.

I will post some MikJournal Moments this week, highlighting records and expanding on any hope for substantial rainfall for our region.

Thanks for checking in. Now, I'm checking out. Have a good week.

MS

MikJournal Moment 09/19/2019

According to the weekly Drought Monitor, 67 percent of Kentucky is abnormally dry. 26.26 percent is in at least a D1 drought. Burn bans have been issued in at least 50 counties in Kentucky.

Drought conditions forecast to persist through December 31 for portions of central and east Kentucky.

The July-September time frame could be the driest period since 1999 for Louisville. I'm projecting about an inch for the month of September, which would almost equal 5.00" for the period. The only other periods in Louisville's historical climate for July-September when precipitation amounts were under 5.00" were 1999, 1983, 1943, 1941, 1940, and 1930.

Dry streak records continue to fall this week...as of September 17
Corners...20 days
McDaniels...20
Salyersville Water Works...20
Taylorsville Lake...20

MikJournal Moment 09/15/2019

Dry Update:
19 consecutive days with no measurable rainfall at my house in Valley Station, KY.
19 days...Louisville International
18 days...Louisville Bowman Field
18 days...Lexington Bluegrass AP

Dry Streak Records Threatened:
Inez...17 days (19)
London...17 days (23)
Louisville Bowman Field...18 days (23)

Impressive Dry Streak and Temperatures
Louisville International 1953:
36 days of no measurable rain (not a record)
Temperature high/low examples:
09-29......99/52
10-19.....86/43

MikJournal Monday 09/02/2019...Welcome to Meteorogical Autumn

Yes. Good Monday and the first day of meteorological Autumn. But, this does not mean Summer is going away completely. It's a nice day out there today, and it's a little warm.

However, we're looking at an awesome forecast for the week, especially later this week.

First, headline hog Hurricane Dorian has just been downgraded to a category 4 storm as I'm writing this, shortly after the noon hour. The thing is barely moving. Soon, a weakness between 2 ridges will allow the Big 'D' an opportunity to sneak through and begin its north and eventual northeastward swim, perhaps staying offshore but not far enough for any impacts to be lessened along a huge swath of the southeast coastline.

The forecast for high winds, relentless surf, and other flooding concerns has already prompted a mass evacuation plan from the coastlines of Florida to South Carolina. Even my favorite vacation spot at Myrtle Beach looks to be cancelled later this week, as the State Park is officially closed until further notice. Bummer!

I'm quite sure we'll hear complainers yacking about "why did they have to evacuate?" Oh, and my personal favorite, "People are just getting too soft these days."

I do not see any real good chances for rainfall in our region for the next several days. Although the majority of the state of Kentucky is still considered to be above average in the rainfall department for the year, I am projecting that the August numbers will show that the state was 'below average' for the first time this year. And this may even knock Kentucky down a level to 'Near Average' albeit the high end of that level for the calendar year 2019.

Well, I hate to cut the post short, but I do have to find some alternative vacation plans.

Talk later...

MS

A MikJournal Moment 08/25/2019

A possible pattern change for some...
Widespread rainfall anticipated over much of Kentucky this week with 1-3" expected, relieving areas that have had little rainfall over the last 2 months.

Jackson KY still looks dry...
At only 0.17" for the month of August, Jackson could use some much needed rainfall. Hopefully, they get in on it. At least an inch is expected over the next few days.

Mesonet sites still under 1" for the month...
There are still 12 Kentucky Mesonet locations that have not received at least 1" of rainfall for the month, mainly confined to areas of the Bluegrass region in central Kentucky.

It was a dry July in Louisville...
The 1.31" was the driest July in Louisville since 2002.

Charleston WV gets more rain...
Coming close to going below normal for the year in the rainfall department, Charleston picked up 2.69" during the past week.

Death Valley temperatures...
Highest temperature this summer has been 125 degrees. During July, the warmest low temperature for the month was 102.

MS

MikJournal Monday 08/19/2019...Change From Hot and Dry?

Good Monday morning. I awakened to some computer issues this morning. That's always fun. Hopefully, this post will make it to your screen.

Anyway, let's talk weather. More and more people living in Kentucky are beginning to understand what I've been dealing with for several weeks here near Louisville: a lack of rainfall.

It has rained only two days this month for a drought-busting 0.71" at my place in Valley Station. I heard thunder around 1:00 this morning, but no rainfall here once again. The airport picked up 0.01" and now has 0.60" for the month. Yay!

Through yesterday, there were 22 Mesonet sites in Kentucky that have registered less than 0.50" this month. The Drought Monitor report due this Thursday will likely show an expansion of the 'abnormally dry' areas. I still don't think anyone really qualifies for moderate drought status yet.

And it appears that nobody will. Maybe. The CPC has our region in a 40-50 percent chance for above normal rainfall in the day 6-10 time frame. But, that drops to a 33-40 percent chance for above normal readings in the 10-14 day time period.

Temperatures that have been soaring well into the 90's lately, flustering meteorologists who make forecasts, will be coming down. I mean we're not talking record lows here, but it should feel much better than what we've been dealing with here lately.

In the meantime, here is something we do not regularly talk about during the summer months, a top ten list of driest months.

I know we still have 12 days to go before the end of the month. But, for those who are curious, here are a few locations who stand a realistic chance of making the top ten driest August list. In the list below, I used the 10th place value. Obviously, that means anything greater than that amount will not be on the list.

Louisville....0.96" (0.60")
Lexington....1.26" (0.41")
Jackson........2.64" (0.07")
London........2.02" (0.00")

As for temperatures, yesterday really highlighted what a dry ground can do for temperatures. Several areas of central and eastern Kentucky soared into the mid 90's. Lexington recorded a high of 97 degrees, beating out Louisville's 96. These values only add more intensity to sucking out the moisture from an already dried out ground, or at least the top few inches of the soil.

So, let's hope for some much needed rainfall. The CPC gives us a fair shot for above normal rainfall along with the beleaguered GFS.

Have a good week everyone.

MS

MikJournal Monday 08/12/2019...Mid-Month Update

Happy Monday to one and all, the beginning of another week of summer. And boy, will summer be playing the part.

After a brief respite from the throngs of summer heat, it's coming back with a vengeance, perhaps the hottest temperatures of the year for some, especially if you're inclined to believe the naysayers about the 'fake' excessive heat from a couple of weeks ago.

Along with the heat, there might be a chance of...wait for it...rain??? Say it ain't so! Well.... I'm not going to say much about that, other than some of us might still be dealing with brown/dormant lawns. But, let's hope that some of us will get in on those beneficial rains.

Louisville, officially, has only had 1.31" since July 1.

By comparison, Louisville has received just 0.32" since July 24. Death Valley CA has recorded 0.22" during the same time frame.

According to the CPC, precipitation chances should begin to normalize, especially after next week. We will see about that. Even hotter temperatures are forecast after the middle of the month. Either we're talking about high heat AND humidity, or else high heat with little chances for precipitation. Regardless, overall temperatures will be above average throughout the period through at least the 24th of the month.

Paducah continues to lead all reporting locations in Kentucky in the precipitation department with just over 52" for the year. That's good enough for 28th wettest year on record so far.

For the rest of us, abnormally dry conditions will likely spread from last week's figures with the next Drought Monitor report this Thursday. Many could use at least 1-2" rainfall. I know I could use it.

Here's something you won't see often. This is the Las Vegas NV forecast page. Excessive Heat Watch for the southern part of the state and in the favored desert areas while Frost Advisory for higher elevations of central and northern Nevada.



Have a good week, everyone.

MS