A good time to look at what has and what will happen.
Overall, it's been wet and mild...thru 1/16
Louisville 234% of normal precip
Louisville 4.8 degrees above normal
Lexington 181% of normal precip
Lexington 5.3 degrees above normal
Bowling Green 203% of normal precip
Bowling Green 5.8 degrees above normal
Jackson 179% of normal precip
Jackson 5.5 degrees above normal
The CPC says for the time frame of Jan 22-26, temps retreating from below normal readings. In fact, Jan 24-30 time frame shows above normal readings across much of the south, including KY.
I'll be interested in seeing how this unfolds as some are pointing toward a very cold period during this latter period.
Here is what the CPC says for the month of February...
February Temps
February Precip
MS
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Tuesday, January 15, 2013
Mix It January 15, 2013
Wintry mix for many locations today. Therefore, WWAdvisories posted, generally south of Louisville.
Things to think about...
NAM radar shows mostly rain, with freezing rain/sleet along the Ohio river.
This seems to contradict with forecast surface temps, especially south of Louisville.
For Louisville, NAM suggests liquid equivalent of 0.18". Sounds excessive.
According to upper air forecasts, the freezing point will be right over Louisville (how many times have we seen that?); therefore, any precipitation that falls will be a mix of rain and sleet. Surface temps look to be near the freezing mark.
I think main roads should be okay here in Louisville. The usual bridges and overpasses along with secondary roadways could receive a slight glazing at best. However, this does not appear to be a significant event.
Temperatures will need to be monitored, though.
Don't know if WWAdvisory will be posted for Louisville. It will be a close call. Still, exercise caution, regardless.
The way I see it, you already know the forecast. Areas NOT under the WWAdvisory can still expect a mix of sleet and possible freezing rain. Therefore, treat the situation as if we were under the Advisory. If you know that you're running low on gas, you don't need to wait for the gas light to come on to get gas. Similarly, you know there will be a wintry mix for some, which requires caution when driving. You don't need to wait for the NWS to issue an Advisory to decide if you're going to drive with caution.
HPC Freezing Rain Probability Jan 15-16
MS
Things to think about...
NAM radar shows mostly rain, with freezing rain/sleet along the Ohio river.
This seems to contradict with forecast surface temps, especially south of Louisville.
For Louisville, NAM suggests liquid equivalent of 0.18". Sounds excessive.
According to upper air forecasts, the freezing point will be right over Louisville (how many times have we seen that?); therefore, any precipitation that falls will be a mix of rain and sleet. Surface temps look to be near the freezing mark.
I think main roads should be okay here in Louisville. The usual bridges and overpasses along with secondary roadways could receive a slight glazing at best. However, this does not appear to be a significant event.
Temperatures will need to be monitored, though.
Don't know if WWAdvisory will be posted for Louisville. It will be a close call. Still, exercise caution, regardless.
The way I see it, you already know the forecast. Areas NOT under the WWAdvisory can still expect a mix of sleet and possible freezing rain. Therefore, treat the situation as if we were under the Advisory. If you know that you're running low on gas, you don't need to wait for the gas light to come on to get gas. Similarly, you know there will be a wintry mix for some, which requires caution when driving. You don't need to wait for the NWS to issue an Advisory to decide if you're going to drive with caution.
HPC Freezing Rain Probability Jan 15-16
MS
Southern Ice Storm 01/15/13
An ice storm is in progress across parts of the south. Ice storm warnings are in effect from Shreveport LA to Memphis TN.
At 10:00am, I have been listening to scanners out of Shreveport LA. Bridges are now slick and hazardous. One particular bridge has yielded accidents, including injuries. Law enforcement and other officials are trying to divert traffic from the bridge so that medical personnel can get to those injured.
Shreveport LA scanners
MS
At 10:00am, I have been listening to scanners out of Shreveport LA. Bridges are now slick and hazardous. One particular bridge has yielded accidents, including injuries. Law enforcement and other officials are trying to divert traffic from the bridge so that medical personnel can get to those injured.
Shreveport LA scanners
MS
Sunday, January 13, 2013
Heavy Rain Event January 10-14, 2013
For some, this has been a memorable rain producer. Plenty of water fell from the skies across the state. Here is a list of final rainfall totals for those of us generally along and west of I-65. These totals cover the time period from Thursday, January 10 through this evening at 9:30pm est.
Crittenden County 6.29"
Fulton County 5.87"
McLean County 5.15"
Graves County 4.45"
Marshall County 4.39"
Simpson County 3.90"
Louisville 3.60"
Bowling Green 3.31"
Lexington 2.38"
In Jefferson County...
Valley Station 4.16"
Camp Horine 3.91"
Valley Station (MS) 3.80"
Fairdale 3.76"
PRP 3.68"
More totals possibly forthcoming for the eastern part of the state.
MS
Crittenden County 6.29"
Fulton County 5.87"
McLean County 5.15"
Graves County 4.45"
Marshall County 4.39"
Simpson County 3.90"
Louisville 3.60"
Bowling Green 3.31"
Lexington 2.38"
In Jefferson County...
Valley Station 4.16"
Camp Horine 3.91"
Valley Station (MS) 3.80"
Fairdale 3.76"
PRP 3.68"
More totals possibly forthcoming for the eastern part of the state.
MS
Weather Summary and Forecast 1/13/13
I'll be posting rainfall totals by tomorrow evening. I'm keeping a running total on my RainWatch post. You can check that out to keep current.
Impressive rain totals across western KY with some amounts exceeding 5" since Thursday Jan 10.
Cold front blasting through the state today, promises to crush our January thaw. In fact, some residual moisture may freeze, causing black ice concerns and the dreaded I-can't-open-my-car-door syndrome.
In other news, the western United States is undergoing quite the cold spell. They're talking about possible frost on the beaches of San Diego and for Tijuana's sunrise.
Las Vegas, NV recorded low temperatures at or below freezing only 3 times last year, and that was in December last month. So far this year, counting today, this is Las Vegas' 8th day at or below 32 degrees.
On the flip side, if you want to call it that, Alaska has been 'enjoying' much above normal temperatures lately. Despite Fairbanks recording 8 consecutive mornings below zero, their average temperature is 9.5 degrees above normal for the month.. At Bethel, they're running 18.7 degrees above normal.
One of the snowiest locations in Alaska is Valdez. They have received nearly 80" for the season. However, that is way below average for them. Normally, Valdez should have recorded 151.8 inches by now for the season. Last year, at this time, they had already recorded 322".
In Texas, so far, it's been very wet this month. At Navarro Mills Dam, about 35 miles east of Waco, 5.28" rain has been recorded. Waco has had 4.83", most of that occurring on January 9th when they received a record 3.79" for the date.
Our forecast is calling for an extended cold spell. However, the NWS seems to think temperatures will run about normal for the area. They're holding off on precipitation chances for the rest of the week. There will be systems out there that will be worth keeping an eye on, though.
The CPC has put out a medium-range forecast that has the region in below normal temperatures for the January 18-26 period. However, precipitation looks to come in at below to much below normal for the same time period. It figures.
MS
Impressive rain totals across western KY with some amounts exceeding 5" since Thursday Jan 10.
Cold front blasting through the state today, promises to crush our January thaw. In fact, some residual moisture may freeze, causing black ice concerns and the dreaded I-can't-open-my-car-door syndrome.
In other news, the western United States is undergoing quite the cold spell. They're talking about possible frost on the beaches of San Diego and for Tijuana's sunrise.
Las Vegas, NV recorded low temperatures at or below freezing only 3 times last year, and that was in December last month. So far this year, counting today, this is Las Vegas' 8th day at or below 32 degrees.
On the flip side, if you want to call it that, Alaska has been 'enjoying' much above normal temperatures lately. Despite Fairbanks recording 8 consecutive mornings below zero, their average temperature is 9.5 degrees above normal for the month.. At Bethel, they're running 18.7 degrees above normal.
One of the snowiest locations in Alaska is Valdez. They have received nearly 80" for the season. However, that is way below average for them. Normally, Valdez should have recorded 151.8 inches by now for the season. Last year, at this time, they had already recorded 322".
In Texas, so far, it's been very wet this month. At Navarro Mills Dam, about 35 miles east of Waco, 5.28" rain has been recorded. Waco has had 4.83", most of that occurring on January 9th when they received a record 3.79" for the date.
Our forecast is calling for an extended cold spell. However, the NWS seems to think temperatures will run about normal for the area. They're holding off on precipitation chances for the rest of the week. There will be systems out there that will be worth keeping an eye on, though.
The CPC has put out a medium-range forecast that has the region in below normal temperatures for the January 18-26 period. However, precipitation looks to come in at below to much below normal for the same time period. It figures.
MS
Friday, January 11, 2013
RainWatch Jan11-14 2013
I'll be updating this page throughout the next few days, using a combination of Mesonet sites and MSD rain gauges and the NWS offices.
\
UPDATED Sun pm at 2:00est
The next wave of precipitation has been riding along the slow-moving cold front. The temperature at my house in Valley Station (sw Jefferson County) is still 55 degrees. About 30 minutes away in Brandenburg (Meade County), temperature is 44. So, the front is getting much closer. Several areas in Jefferson county are now over 2" since midnight. Some locations in west KY are over 3" since midnight. Here are some updated totals since midnight and total storm amounts since Thursday.
McLean County near Calhoun 3.13" 4.88"
Crittenden County near Marion 3.04" 6.17"
Fulton County near Hickman 3.03" 5.84"
Graves County near Mayfield 2.90" 4.43"
Louisville 2.17" 3.05"
Lexington 0.86" 1.53"
Bowling Green 1.54" 2.67"
Valley Station 2.63" 3.63"
Camp Horine 2.34" 3.29"
PRP 2.32" 3.23'
Fairdale 2.28" 3.16"
Check out more later today.
---------------------------------------------
UPDATED Sun am at 3:00est...
Cold front pushing through western KY. Cadiz at 70 degrees and dry. About 25 miles west at Benton, it's 47 with 1.20" rain since midnight.
Crittenden County near Marion has had 1.73" since midnight for a Thr-Sun total of 4.86".
The heavy rain shield is on the move. Just started at my house several minutes ago with a quick half-inch of rain in southwest Jefferson county near Valley Station. Several locations in far west KY reporting amounts in excess of 1-2" since midnight. Temps plummeting behind front now in the low 40's in the farthest western parts of KY.
------------------------------------------------
UPDATED Sat pm at 9:00est...Since Thursday
Fulton County near Hickman 2.65"
Union County near Morganfield 2.89"
Crittenden County near Marion 2.55"
McLean County near Calhoun 1.75"
Graves County near Mayfield 1.43"
Louisville 0.88"
Lexington 0.67"
Bowling Green 1.13"
Morris Forman 1.00"
Valley Station 0.99"
Camp Horine 0.95"
PRP 0.91"
Fairdale 0.88"
-----------------------------------------------------------------
In Jefferson County KY...based on MSD rain gauges since Midnight Thursday morning
Since Thursday...
Camp Horine (southern) 0.94"
Morris Foreman (Algonquin Pkwy) 0.95"
Hite Creek (northeast) 0.82"
Fairdale 0.88"
Valley Station 0.98"
Lea Ann Way (near Jefferson Mall) 0.74"
St Matthews 0.78"
PRP 0.88"
Louisville 0.88"
Bowling Green 1.09"
Lexington 0.41"
McLean County 1.63"
Crittenden County 2.08"
Trigg County 1.41"
Marshall County 1.42"
MS
Tuesday, January 8, 2013
Rain And Warm Temperatures for January 9-13
HPC shows the well-advertised wet pattern getting ready for splashdown. Perhaps 2-4" rain should accumulate, especially from I-65 west over the next 5-7 days.
Some Mets are expecting strong to isolated severe storms by Thursday. Right now, SPC has posted a very low probability for far west KY. However, adjustments will be made as additional atmospheric data and timing issues continue to be updated. So stay tuned.
The above normal temperatures should continue at least through the rest of this week. Get out there and get those outside chores done while you can.
MS
Some Mets are expecting strong to isolated severe storms by Thursday. Right now, SPC has posted a very low probability for far west KY. However, adjustments will be made as additional atmospheric data and timing issues continue to be updated. So stay tuned.
The above normal temperatures should continue at least through the rest of this week. Get out there and get those outside chores done while you can.
MS
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