Where Is the Cold?

Certainly not here. Although today does have a bit of a bite thanks to a stiff breeze. But, I'm talking about a good ole-fashioned cold spell with periodic bursts of snow. You know, winter.

Despite a few trends toward a brief spat of cold, the overall trend continues with the same old theme: above normal temperatures. The CPC has actually done a decent job with their forecasts for the most part for our region.

Seems like I'm always trying to find a glitch in their forecasts. I know and you know that they are basing their forecasts on the La Nina weather pattern. Last year, the CPC stunk it up because we were in the midst of a La Nina winter and the weather pattern of cold and snow just did not match up with what they were forecasting, mild and wet/dry.

This year, La Nina is behaving as it should for the winter months, especially the mild temperatures. Now, I know we all want a nice thumping of snow, but I'm almost ready to concede to spring's wishes. If anything, looks to be an active severe weather season shaping up. You know, we'll probably get that snow we've been waiting for when it's supposed to be warm and wet.

Have a good weekend.
MS

EF-1 Tornado Near Murray KY

***Correction***012412041300 - I meant Calloway county below...don't know where I got Caldwell.


Yesterday's severe storms in west KY did in fact produce a tornado of EF-1 damage near Murray KY in Caldwell county. Path length of 5.6 miles and winds approaching 95 mph. Lots of damage to structures along its path.

Still curious about the damage in Daviess county. Hopefully, some type of survey will be conducted there as well.

Your Monday 01/23/12

What a day of storm activity yesterday. It was like listening to some dramatic radio reading at times as I was tuned into the Skywarn spotter network in Arkansas and again in Kentucky. Sporadic wind damage was reported all along an advancing squall line that prompted numerous tornado/severe thunderstorm warnings.

The nature of the damage in Kentucky and southern Indiana would seem to indicate possible brief tornado spinups at times, but more likely intense winds mixing down to the surface. I don't know if the NWS offices will conduct any official surveys but would be nice to know if any of the damage was tornadic in nature.

Now, are we ever going to talk more and more about winter? It just seems that for every cold snap we get, there is a shot of spring that overtakes the cold. It almost seems like late February type of weather instead of the coldest part of the winter.

Well, the CPC seems to indicate an easing of the blowtorch winter we've had so far this season. After above normal temperatures expected during the 6-10 day period, more normal readings for this time of year are expected afterward. Our longest stretch of negative NAO readings could be coming toward the beginning of February. This is a trend I've been noticing since it first caught my eye almost a week ago.

While it does not represent an honest to goodness long spell of cold and snow, there will be opportunities for appreciable snows toward the end of this month going forward into the first part of February. For those who have given up on this winter, it only takes one 'big snow' to make up lost ground. The month of February is the month that I forecast for the most snow.

I'm kinda wondering if people enjoy 20+ inches of numerous ankle biters or 20+ inches that includes a couple of  big snows of at least 6" or so. It may be a stretch at this point, but that kind of window will be open. But, the models will have to come up with something for us to work with. Right now, if you go by the models, things don't look too promising.

The silver lining is that storms will be on the map by then. Therefore, adjustments can be made as upper air data becomes more readily available. And if the cold will be around, then that could work in our favor. Let's hope so.

Have a good week.
MS  

NOWCAST Severe Weather Updates

I'll be going into nowcast mode. I hope to feature police scanner info, webcams, current short-term forecast models, and other pertinent information as they become available or as the situation warrants.

LAST UPDATE
Damaging wind is approaching Louisville. Expect power outages and some structural issues. Winds may exceed 65mph in places. Keep safe and take care.
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1:30am Update
In Perry county Indiana, getting report of part of a roof structure in the roadway. Don't know what structure it is...
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1:00am Update
Across southern and western Ky, still getting reports of pea to dime size hail and winds of 40-50 mph. A mesonet reading of 63mph reported as well.

In Dale, Indiana in Spencer county, multiple power outages being reported...

12:45am Update
Rotation indicated by Radar...spotter being advised to move out of his location. Hail core coming their way. Also, radar indicates possible 68 mph winds coming toward them as well. Man, wish I was there.


12:40am Update
About time...SPC just issued Severe Thunderstorm Watch till 5am for Louisville and includes most of our county warning area.

Power outages being reported in Dawson Springs...

12:30am Update
New Thunderstorm Warnings for Christian county...winds in excess of 70mph expected. Spotters, please stop using the term 'heavy winds' and just estimate the darn thing...

12:27am Update
Still awaiting spotter information in Cadiz on approaching tornadic cell. Meanwhile, it appears the squall line is taking on more of a damaging wind threat now for Kentucky and southern Indiana. Still getting reports of 45-55 mph winds and some reports of large hail. Wondering if SPC expands Severe Thunderstorm Watch to Louisville or not. Line is only a couple of hours away...

12:20am Update
Unconfirmed tornado in Murray KY
54 mph wind gust in Trigg county
Tornadic storm heading for Cadiz...seems to have lost its signature crossing over the lakes...may still re-intensify. Next update shortly.

11:45pm Update
Not a good time for Hopkinsville radar to be offline, even temporarily. Spotters in the field awaiting update.
Rotation being observed near Marshall county according to law enforcement
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10:25pm Update
Expecting a Watch to be issued near the Louisville area around midnight or hopefully before. Don't know if this will be for tornadoes or severe thunderstorms.

10:20pm UPDATE
Squall line about to cross Mississippi river into Memphis and parts of west KY as well. Warnings out all along this squall. Tornado threat seems to be south of KY at this time.
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9:30pm Update
Tornado Watch now in effect for west Ky, SE MO, SW IN, southern IL
Not considered a PDS yet...doesn't matter. A watch is still in effect until 2:15am cst.
Reports of tornadoes on the ground in AR. People trapped. I'll be tuning back into Skywarn spotters network shortly.

8:25pm Update
It's now 59 degrees at my location. Wow. At 7pm, temp was 48.
Be back in a little bit...got to take care of some 'daddy' business
I'll be monitoring data from Memphis Tn location next. Perhaps by then, we'll have a Watch issued for the western ky area.
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8:10pm Update
Frustrating to listen to these spotters in the field...Must give specific hail sizes and estimated wind speeds, not just 'heavy winds and coin size hail'.

one or two funnels being reported near England and Red Field AR
One spotter just reported winds near 65mph near the warned area along with marble size hail
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8:00pm Update
Tornado WARNING Pulaski county near Sheraton or Sheridan. So far, these storms have been producing much hail.

Reports of sirens not going off in warned counties. Not NWS responsibility, Emergency Operation personnel instead.

More warnings coming out...things are really beginning to fire now.
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7:55pm Update
This is still in Arkansas. Skywarn spotters in the field, hail ping pong size being reported
Winds of 45 mph being reported I35 and I40 along with penny size hail
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7:35pm Update
Tornado WARNING near White Oak and Camden...in Arkansas.
Also Tornado WARNING for areas near Arkadelphia and Sheridan

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7:30pm Update
Strong hail storm at least pea size has moved thru White county near Searcy AR
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7:00pm Update
A Watch may need to be issued according to the SPC for the following areas...

THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER SERN MO AND NERN AR
   DURING THE 00-03Z TIME PERIOD...AND THEN MOVE QUICKLY DOWNSTREAM
   ACROSS SRN IL...WRN KY AND SWRN IND DURING THE NIGHT. PRIMARY SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A FEW TORNADOES WILL
   ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
Roughly translated, expect a Watch of some sort, most likely Tornado, to be issued between now and 9pm cst or 10pm est for the circled area above.

By the way, temperature at my house in Valley Station is at 48 degrees
Look at this...

The air is becoming more moist to my south. I expect my temps to surge by 6-10 degrees over the next few hours.

6:30pm Update
Here we go. Tornado Watch now out for

          EASTERN ARKANSAS
          THE MISSOURI BOOTHEEL
          NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
          WESTERN TENNESSEE

This is also a PDS tornado watch -  a particularly dangerous situation

EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON FROM 520 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST.
  
   ...THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION...
  
   DESTRUCTIVE TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
   THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
-------------------------------
4:45pm Update
SPC considering issuance of a Tornado Watch by 6:00 pm cst for parts of AR, west TN, LA, and MS.
I expect additional watches to issued in quick order afterward including portions of west ky, TN, MO, AL.
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There will be a conference call by the NWS at 2:00pm. I'm sure our local mets will be filling us in on the overall basics. Here's what to expect...

Tornado threat some EF2 are possible, especially west
Damaging wind in excess of 60 mph will be possible
Night time event will catch people off guard...have weather radio or access to local media
Have plan in place in the event severe weather occurs
Timing of storm passage after midnight (as the latest info comes across)

Are you ready???

MS

Severe Storms Possible After Dark

9:00am UPDATE
****Moderate risk for severe weather includes west ky almost to the I65 corridor. Isolated strong tornadoes and damaging winds appear likely.****
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Stepping outside onto my porch, one would not think that later tonight, we could be dealing with yet another line of strong to severe storms. Currently, I have freezing drizzle and temperature is 31. That is actually up 2 degrees since 11pm last night.

A couple of maps I want to share with you for severe weather chances in our region. This map will be updated when the newest information comes out...

Currently, the tornado risk according to the SPC:

Now, for the wind damage threat...

The highest threat for severe weather continues to remain south of the region. When I say the highest threat, I'm referring to the best possibility for tornadoes and damaging straight line winds. Memphis TN is in the crosshairs.

Here is a scenario to just think about. If enough severe weather breaks out to our south, most of the severe weather anticipated for points north of E'town could be lessened somewhat by the energy ongoing to produce tornadoes to our south and west. That does not mean we in Louisville won't see some type of warning with this squall line.

My current concerns are the energy that could affect the Memphis TN area that will move quickly northeast and the timing of this event, being after dark. IF enough cells along the squall line become tornadic, I do think parts of western KY, say from Murray, Ft Campbell, and Hopkinsville could be included in this higher tornado threat.

Nevertheless, the squall line is expected to produce winds of, on average, 45-50 mph as it quickly pushes through.  But, I still think winds may mix down to the surface with some of the heavier parts of the line that will push wind speeds above 55 mph in places.

This storm system is still unfolding. The potential exists for severe weather. It will be after dark for many of us when these storms arrive. Have those weather radios set to alert mode.

Here is a nice weather radio that I have in my home. This one you can get for about 30 dollars at any Walmart or other retail/grocery outlets.

More updates coming later...
MS

Severe Weather Chances For Our Region???

I often don't use the NAM when referencing for severe weather chances. However, I did take note of some data and tried to interpret it best I could.

A very strong jet at the lower levels should fuel a squall line expected to develop in western KY by later tomorrow evening. One of those 500 mb vortices will also be in the region. That along with favorable lift indices in a -2 to -4 range for a while should maintain the squall line for a time.

But, the NAM wants to accelerate this squall line to where it is negatively tilted (NW-SE configuration). In addition, the wind shear from this vortex tries to tear the squall apart as lift indices come down. It's almost like the NAM wants to blow this line apart. Don't know how accurate that will be.

A line of 45 to 50 mph wind gusts along the squall is possible, especially for western KY. However, the NAM also shows 45 to 50 mph wind gusts for the eastern part of the state but not as widespread as a few hours earlier.

I don't know if the SPC will extend the slight risk category for severe weather to the eastern part of the state or not. We will find out shortly. Next forecast update out by 12:30 pm or so.

When dynamics as such are in place, I would still expect severe weather somewhere along this line and it SHOULD include all of Kentucky, not just the western part.

I'll be looking at the GFS model and see if I can find anything there as its next update package will be available soon.

MS

Ice Threat Looming

Over a week ago, I highlighted the possibility of a significant winter event for somewhere near the region. In my post 'Your Monday' dated January 9, I expected a w-e demarcation line with cold air north and warmer air south. Where the setup could produce an ice event was an initial concern then and now looks to verify for some in our region.

Admittedly, I was not so optimistic about these chances as the GFS was leading the way. All of the GFS bashers as of late have got me rattled. And typically, the GFS 'warms' over successive runs. However, the GFS has stuck to its guns and now has become the choice model for this event.

Don't forget about the NAM. It can also be useful in this scenario.
It still keeps the primary ice threat just north of the Ohio river. It has also been consistent in its placement of ice threat.

Areas north of the Ohio river should expect travel problems along with isolated power outages, the key word is isolated. Still don't think this will be a major event. But, any time ice is involved....

Looking forward to severe weather chances for the region. The NAM keeps severe potential confined to the southern part of KY, where winds could gust above 55 mph. The SPC will be posting their next 2 day forecast soon. Be watching for it. I'll be posting on this as soon as it becomes available.

MS