MikJournal Moment 10/23/2019

As of October 22, a new leader has emerged in the region I cover for annual precipitation. Memphis TN replaces Paducah KY for now with an impressive total of 58.78". Paducah does come in at a close second with 58.74", coming closer to a top ten annual precipitation induction, possibly replacing 2018's top ten appearance.

The month of October has brought beneficial rains for many residents after a record dry September. Some areas in Kentucky have received over 5 inches this month, while others have recorded just over an inch. But, we should see an overall reduction in drought in the next report updated tomorrow morning.

The coldest air of the season is still on track to arrive by the end of the month or the first of next month. It is looking increasingly likely that the growing season will effectively end for most of the remaining region that has not already experienced a killing frost. Widespread 20's for low temperatures and possibly upper teens in the normally colder locations might threaten a few records. Lexington's daily low temperature records for October 31 and November 1 is 22 degrees. Right now, I'm predicting 25-28 degrees. Even Louisville could see its first freeze of the season, earliest freeze since October 29 and 30, 2017.

It's been a long time, but the NAO, the North Atlantic Oscillation, has been persistently negative over the last several months. If this trend continues into the winter months, look for more opportunities for an interesting winter season, especially if you're a fan of snow and cold weather. Of course, the other major alphabet teleconnections must play their parts as well (AO, PNA, EPO).

MikJournal Moment 10/10/2019

How does the year 2019 drought compare to other years of drought?

There really is no comparison to such years as 1953 and 1963. However, the 19 locations in Kentucky that recorded new record dry streaks for an average of 27.2 days, does compare favorably with 1985, when the average record dry streak was a little over 29.3 days for Kentucky.

But, the time period was a little bit different. Drought was becoming a hot button issue for the months of May onward, when the planting of crops was in full swing. Much of the southeast U.S. was in the grips of prolonged dry weather, from Maryland down through the Carolinas. Virginia and Kentucky were also affected moderately.

In a way, I'm sure many would like to see 1985 as an analog for the upcoming winter. January 1986 was a decent snow maker for eastern Kentucky. One snowstorm brought up to 10" to the mountains in Letcher and Harlan counties, and wind chills were reportedly in the -45 degree range.

The following month would produce more significant snow, especially around Valentine's Day, when heavy snow blanketed much of Kentucky with 4-12".

Unfortunately, it warmed up soon afterward, so that rain and snow melt produced widespread flooding concerns, mudslides, and collapsed awnings.

I don't know about you, but this could be a decent winter if you like snow. Still, I think the eastern part of the state will fare the best.

MikJournal Moment 10/06/2019

Lexington's historic 39-day dry streak, from August 28 through October 5, is likely coming to an end today. Records go back to 1872, but many annual records were incomplete. However, in 1908, from August 22 to September 27, no measurable precipitation was recorded. Therefore, it was generally accepted that this 37-day dry streak was the previous record.

The region's first widespread, soaking rainfall in well over a month, will benefit many residents in Kentucky. Hopefully, areas of central Kentucky will receive enough rainfall to alleviate worsening fire dangers to parts of the Daniel Boone National Forest.

Earlier this month, temperature records fell across the region. The first few days of October produced all-time record high temperatures for the month of October...

October 1-3
Louisville...97; 97; 96
Lexington...97; 96; 96
Bowling Green...97; 98; 97

We know how warm it has been? Here's another first for Lexington...
It's what is called the Heating Degree Day, based on an average temperature of 65 degrees. Any day's average temperature that falls below the 65-degree average is added daily and tallied at the end of the month or year. At no time during September did the average temperature fall below the 65-degree average, or 0 HDD. That has never happened in September at Lexington's climate reporting stations.

How dry has it been? Well, we remember how wet the past year and a half have been. But, since July 1, here is a look at the cumulative below-normal rainfall anomalies for select locations in central Kentucky (through October 5)...

Louisville...-7.11"
Lexington...-5.60"
Covington...-3.48"