MikJournal Monday 11/19/2018...More Below Normal Temperatures Coming

Another dreary Monday morning. Temperature at my place is 45 degrees at 7:00 a.m. Not looking like much rise in temperatures today with clouds and drizzle expected.

Lexington is closing in on its wettest year ever. As of last night, annual precipitation stands at 65.20". It is only the 3rd time on record that Lexington has surpassed the 65" mark. This is still the 3rd wettest year but closing in on 2nd with just a little over a half inch needed. Keep up with the total on the side of the blog as Lexington only needs 1.16" to set the all-time mark.

Louisville also is making puddles of its own. Of the 5 instances when the annual precipitation has exceeded 60" for any given year, 3 of those have now happened within the last 8 years (2011, 2015, 2018). The total of 62.32" is now the 5th wettest year. The all-time record may be hard to break though, since 68.02" is the mark to beat, nearly 5.70" away.

Snowfall for the month of November stands at 0.3" in Louisville. The last measurable November snowfall was in 2014/2015, a snow season that featured a still weak El Nino and a back-loaded winter (heaviest snow in February and March) that produced an impressive 27.6" for the snow year ending June 30. Again, most of that occurred in February and March 2015 when 22.8" was collected.

Just for fun, that would mean we would have to endure an uneventful December and January. While the first part of December looks cold, moderating temperatures seem poised to occur by the middle of the month. However, if it's just a brief speed bump, like what we have been seeing in recent months, the cold may become readily established once again with another shot of below normal temperatures by the holiday stretch. And you know what that could mean....

Presently, we are in a teleconnection pattern featuring a strengthening -AO, -NAO, and +PNA, a familiar and likely signal for below normal temperatures for the next several days after this week.

As we near the time when teleconnections mean something, I will be looking closely at the Arctic Oscillation (AO) index. What I have discovered over the last few years is when the AO is in a moderate to strong negative phase and forms a V-signature by quickly trending toward neutral. look for a snowstorm in our region as the AO is trending upward toward the neutral point. Typically, that means we already have cold air in place but warmer Gulf moisture is now available for something interesting.

That's all for now. Make it a good week. And don't overeat. I know, I know that's what everyone says.

MS