MikJournal Monday 10/29/2018...Rare October Statistic

Welcome to the last Monday in October. Wow, the leaves are really changing fast. Peak colors are likely this week here in Louisville. Get out there quick, because many of those leaves will be missing from the trees later this week thanks mainly to expected heavy rainfall along with high winds.

Projected rainfall totals this week look to average between 3 and 5" for a large chunk of central and western Kentucky, with locally higher amounts possible in convective training of stronger cells. This will likely push some areas like Louisville and Lexington further into the Top Ten Wettest Years all-time.

Lexington already stands at 59.44", good enough for #9. Louisville is at 57.03" for #10 wettest year ever.

Also, for the month of October, Lexington has had a record number of Cooling Degree Days (cumulative number of degrees above the average base temperature of 65) and an above normal number of Heating Degree Days (cumulative number of degrees below the average base temperature of 65).

Now, for my feature comment. Anyone who ever reads the blog knows I come up with some rather obscure statistics. I found another one. I have not completely verified this yet. Let's call it a preliminary finding.

First, October is known as a transition month linking late Summer/early Fall to late Fall/almost early Winter conditions. Quite often, especially early in the month, low temperatures in the 50's occur at both Louisville and Lexington. Based on the 1981-2010 average, in Louisville, October yields about 9 days with low temperatures in the 50's.

Did you know that Louisville and Lexington have yet to record a single day this month when the low temperature was between 50 and 59 degrees? We went straight from a low in the 60's/70's to the 30's/40's.

We still have a couple more days to go this month. But, to my knowledge, again a preliminary assessment, I do not believe this has ever happened at Louisville and Lexington when a low temperature in the 50's was never recorded during a month of October.

I think Louisville stands a better chance of recording zero days of low temperatures in the 50's than Lexington. It will be a close call for both locations. However, they will still enjoy rare company with the years of 1952 and 1987 when only 2 days occurred whereby a low temperatures in the 50's had happened.

Again, enjoy at least the first part of this week. Till next time, we'll talk again.

MS

MikJournal Monday 10/22/2018...Getting Caught Up

A rare Monday greeting, indeed. I have been very busy these past few months. It is another cold morning, between 32 and 33 degrees here at my house in Valley Station. A lot more frost than yesterday morning, which could be fatal to most of my plants this morning. The light freeze at my house yesterday at 30 degrees did not affect my plants substantially. But I do expect the combination of a moderate frost and light freeze this morning to effectively shut down any additional rose blooms and possibly end any more pepper seeding for the rest of the year. My rosemary plant in the garden will be the only thing actively growing.

October has featured a rather wide spread in temperatures. The first 10 days of the month in Louisville offered summer readings of high 80's and low 90's with minimum temperatures of 60's and 70's. Flip the switch, and we have had highs of 50's and 60's with minimum temperatures in the 30's and 40's.

Interesting stat #1: Louisville has not recorded a low temperature in the 50's yet this month.
Interesting stat #2: Even if Louisville continues to record  low temperatures in the 30's, 40's, and even 50's for the rest of the month, October 2018 will still go down with the 5th least amount of days of low temperatures < 60 degrees, tying 2016 and a host of other October's with 21 days.

Lexington will record the 3rd least amount of days of low temperatures < 60 degrees for any month of October with 21 days, something that has not happened since 1949.

Over the weekend, we had some wild winds blowing across the region. We were at a chili cookout in Fern Creek, and at one point, a gust of wind blew down all the chairs, scattering plastic bowls and plates across the field. I estimated the gust between 45 and 50 mph. In fact, Louisville and Lexington recorded maximum wind gusts of 50 and 52 mph respectively.

Even though precipitation has been much lighter for some of us in the region this month, Lexington was deluged with nearly 3.5" on the 4th of the month. For the year, Lexington stands at 58.81". They need only 0.31" for the year to break into the top ten wettest years on record. The wettest year on record is 2011 with 66.35".

Today looks like a really nice day. Scraping the frost will be a challenge this morning but will be a faded memory by this afternoon. Get out there and enjoy. The Fall colors are beginning to show in earnest for many of us and should quickly peak, most likely before the end of the month.

MS