MikJournal Monday 03/26/2018...News and Stats

Good Monday to you. Today's post is all about numbers and interesting briefs. So, let's get to it.

According to the CPC, the 10-day period from March 31 - April 9 is expected to be below normal for temperatures and above normal for precipitation in Kentucky.

Islip on Long Island in New York has already recorded 31.9" of snowfall this month, its snowiest March ever and its 2nd snowiest month on record behind the 34.4" that fell in January 2011. The climate record goes back to the mid 1960's.

While we're in New York, the Tug Hill region, notorious for lake-effect snow amounts is at it again. If you look at the blog, the Lake Effect Snow Machine is dominated by several locations in the Tug Hill area, including Hooker's 264.8" seasonal total.

Despite the impressive amount of Nor'easters in a short period of time, much of New England has not recorded too many all-time seasonal totals. Rowe, MA has received over 122" for the snow season going back to July 1, an all-time record, but their reporting time only goes back a few years.

Farther south, in Glenmoore PA, 21" has been recorded this month, making it the snowiest March since records were kept beginning in 1960.

Accumulated snowfall over time generally produces snow depth. As long as temperatures remain cold enough to prevent minimal melting, additional snowfall can produce greater snow depths. Looking at some state records, Colorado recorded its greatest snow depth of 251" in March. Tennessee recorded 63" at Mt. Leconte again during March. Snowshoe in West Virginia recorded 62" during March. Now, these were all mountain locations.

Time to rant. If you read my blog long enough, you already know I will get in one of these moods.
Do you know what the state record for snow depth in Kentucky is? It's 31", set in 1978 at LaGrange, a town just northeast of the Heat Island Capital of the United States here in Louisville. No mountains, just a few knobs.

The other day, I was using some data from the Jackson NWS office and saw a whopping 79" snow depth near Booneville KY. What?! How is this not a record? It was from the year 2000. Now, I am going to post a partial copy of this climate data chart from February 2000 for Booneville.

Climatological Data for BOONEVILLE 12SW, KY - February 2000

2000-02-23	58	38	48	9.7	17	0	0	M	M
2000-02-24	72	38	55	17	10	0	0	M	M
2000-02-25	73	42	58	19	7	0	0	M	M
2000-02-26	78	42	60	21	5	0	0	M	M
2000-02-27	79	46	63	23	2	0	0.2	M	M
2000-02-28	M	M	M	M	M	M	0.1	27	79
2000-02-29	59	24	42	1.9	23	0	0	M	M

Now, I know the chart may be a little cramped. The 'M' just stands for missing data. But, I want you to study the line for February 28, preferably the last two columns that read '27' and '79'. Those 2 columns represent 'New Snow' and 'Snow Depth' respectively. In other words, it snowed 27" that day, and we had a snow depth of 79" by the end of that day.

Something is not right about this. First, it would be a new 24-hour snowfall record that would replace the 26" that fell at Simers in March of 1942. And the 79" snow depth should replace the 31" snow depth at LaGrange from 1978.

Something else seems a bit quirky about the 79" snow depth. Look at the high temperatures for the previous 4 days. All of them in the 70's. One would question how much snow depth was there prior to the 28th. All we see is an 'M'. I do see, however, a possible explanation for the erroneous data.

Take a look at the line above the 28th, yes February 27. Look at the high temperature for the day of 79 degrees the next column over. Somehow, someway, is it possible that data input went into the wrong columns like the New Snow and Snow Depth columns below?

Based on data from surrounding regions, there were other locations that reported similar high temperatures for the dates listed, but for the 28th, no snowfall was recorded. Look at nearby Jackson in Breathitt county...

2000-02-23	70	51	61	20	4	0	0	0	0
2000-02-24	71	48	60	18	5	0	0.1	0	0
2000-02-25	76	58	67	26	0	2	0	0	0
2000-02-26	78	56	67	25	0	2	0	0	0
2000-02-27	64	42	53	11	12	0	0.3	0	0
2000-02-28	57	35	46	3.7	19	0	0	0	0
2000-02-29	69	38	54	11	11	0	0	0	0

Even Beattyville in nearby Lee county recorded no snowfall.

Speaking of Beattyville, I found a similar issue. You should have a right to the snow depth record as well. In October 2001, out of the wild blue on the 9th, you recorded a 39" snow depth WITHOUT receiving any new snow for the entire month. In addition, you had a high temperature of 0 degrees and a low temperature of 67 degrees??? Sigh.

However, I do believe the 31" snow depth record for Kentucky can be broken, if it already has not been done. The mountains of Eastern Kentucky would be an excellent place. Did you know that the Kentucky Mesonet has instruments for measuring wind speed, temperature, precipitation, and solar energy atop Black Mountain at an elevation of just over 4,000 feet? Would it not seem reasonable to place a snow sensor of some sort like ones used in other mountainous locations for recording snowfall and depth?

Something to think about. But, being a user of climate data, one would expect the data to be verified for accuracy before putting it to use. The NWS Jackson has additional issues which they are aware of when it comes to climate data. They have assured me that some sort of software problem will be resolved soon. Well, it has not happened yet, and it has been a couple of months. Come on guys, let's get it done. Rant over.

Make it a great week everyone. It might be a little wet, but at least it will be a bit milder.

MS

MikJournal Monday 03/19/2018...More Snow?

Good Monday to you this morning. This is the last Monday of Winter. The vernal equinox signifying the first day of Spring will be upon us tomorrow at 12:15 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time. While spring showers will be evident this week, Old Man Winter is still giving out parting gifts before he goes on his journey to South America. How generous!

Yes, we have more snowfall in the forecast for the upcoming week. For the month of March, some locations in Kentucky are up 50% to 130% above the December through February snow totals. Absolutely amazing!

This time of year, the teleconnections like the Arctic Oscillation (AO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and a couple of others are having less of a correlation with typical winter patterns. However, I still notice the winter patterns with these teleconnections presently. I do expect some snowfall. Will it be like last week's beatdown. It's hard to say. I would guess probably not. But, it will be another wet snow. If you get at least 4" of that, evergreens and even deciduous trees will suffer from the weight of the snow on the branches, again leading to possible power outages.

I am still updating totals for the snow season that runs from July 1 through June 30. Snowshoe WV is just shy of 100" to date, still a bit below normal. Their average is 158" per year. Other locations in Kentucky are still below normal for the snow season, but some are actually above normal including Paducah and Lexington.

In Kentucky, I saw some locations that have recorded 18" for the season. Perhaps, some will get a nice thumping this week to add to their totals.

Speaking of Lexington, thanks to the 9+" of the white stuff last week, they are already at #9 on the Snowiest Spring ever list.

Looking ahead to this week, the WPC is not on board yet to include Kentucky in any significant snowfall in excess of 4". But, we'll see. It seems with systems like the one coming, it's difficult to see how much dynamic cooling will play a role in these events. So, again, stay tuned.

I don't know about you, but I'm ready to move on to Spring. I'm getting in the mood to plant peppers and tomatoes and squash. Hopefully, the warmer weather will finally settle in here for April.

Have a good week. Stay safe.

MS

Heavy Snow Potential

Yes. A rare post on a Sunday. The WPC is on board also saying that a decent potential exists for some locations to receive at least 4" of a heavy wet snow that will cause travel issues as well as possible damage to some trees and perhaps power lines.

Stay tuned to your favorite media source(s) for further updates.

MS

MikJournal Monday 03/05/2018...March Madness (Weather Style)

Good Monday to ya! It's that time of year. College basketball and March Madness. But, the weather will be displaying its own version of March Madness. In fact, the weather already has shown a great deal of madness recently.

Through March 1, Kentucky is the leader in preliminary, and mostly confirmed, tornadoes in the United States. At 14, the closest second place is Alabama with 8.

Late last week and over the weekend, a monster storm ravaged the East coast with high winds, flooding, and heavy snow. Power is still out for many residents this morning.

While many of us here in Kentucky dealt with record-setting rainfall for February, other locations have seen some of their driest winters ever. For example, Wichita in Kansas saw their 3rd driest winter on record, their driest since 1922/23. And that 1" of snow they saw, some 0.7" of that was sleet.

As the ongoing dry spell continues, places like Colorado are experiencing early season wildfires that are destroying people's homes and barns. As I write this, in Elbert county southeast of Denver, at least 5 homes and 4 barns were either heavily damaged or destroyed by a rapidly spreading wildfire yesterday morning.

In addition, wild temperature swings are occurring with all of the dry air in place and windy conditions. Here are a few examples from Sunday for the high and low temperatures...

Lamar, CO  high of 80; low of 24
Limon, CO high of 71; low of 16
Pueblo, CO high of 75; low of 25

Blizzard conditions are expected across parts of South Dakota along with wind gusts perhaps exceeding 60 mph at times.

One of my favorite windiest places that I follow is in Glasgow, Montana. Their average wind speed for the month so far is 17.5 mph. Here in central Kentucky, our average wind speed for the month ranges between 9 and 10 mph so far. But, it is the snowfall that has been the big story for the residents in Glasgow. A daily record of 13.3 inches fell yesterday, just missing their record 24-hour snowfall of 14.1" set on April 2, 1940. A total of over 52" has been recorded so far for the season, which is well above normal.

Our weather looks to skew to the wintry side of things. However, teleconnection patterns do not suggest any major event. Even if we did get a heavy snow accumulation, which can and has happened in March, I do not foresee anything that will stick around for a while. The pattern just does not support an Arctic outbreak like we saw in late December and January. In fact, I think Spring will become more noticeable as we enter the second half of the month.

Just remember, this does not mean Old Man Winter won't get lost. He'll manage to find his way back. March and April usually have many up and down periods. So, be ready.

Have a good week everyone.

MS

MikJournal Midweek Post 03/01/2018...Record February!

Stats at a glance....

For Louisville:
February 2018 - Wettest February all-time
10.54" - Wettest month since April 2015 (10.84")
45.0 degrees - 6th warmest February all-time
12 Cooling Degree Days (65 degrees base average) - Most ever in February
2.98" on February 24 - 3rd wettest day since April 3, 2015

For Lexington:
February 2018 - Wettest February all-time
10.13" - Wettest month since April 2015 (11.41")
44.9 degrees - 2nd warmest February (behind 2017)
7 Cooling Degree Days (65 degrees base average) - Most ever in February

For Bowling Green:
8.59" - 4th wettest February ever
47.8 degrees - 5th warmest February all-time
15 Cooling Degree Days (65 degrees base average) - Most ever in February

Also, Paducah had their 4th wettest February on record; Nashville TN had its 3rd wettest February and wettest since 1890; Memphis TN shatters all-time wettest February with 13.43", nearly 2.3" above previous record.

MS