With a strengthening El Nino, the Atlantic hurricane season has been non-eventful so far.
In fact the updated Atlantic Hurricane Outlook has a 90% probability for a below normal season. The figure represents the highest probability given by NOAA since their seasonal outlooks began in 1998.
The adjusted outlook has 6-10 named tropical systems, including the three previous ones -- Ana, Bill, and Claudette -- two of which made landfall in the United States as tropical storms. Only 1-4 hurricanes are forecast, a number that seems generous at this point, as El Nino's impacts on the Atlantic basin will continue to hamper tropical development by means of strong vertical shear and overall atmospheric stability in the region.
But, the question that is seared in my mind is how this El Nino will affect our upcoming winter season. More on that in a future post.
MS
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