Storm Weary Residents Brace For More Possible Severe Weather Monday-Tuesday

The current, prolonged active weather pattern is about to come to a climactic conclusion. Following a week of quick-hitting tornadoes and damaging microburst winds along with very heavy rainfall, a vigorous storm system appears to be taking shape and aiming for us in the Ohio Valley.

What does that mean for many of us? At least another round of possible severe weather. Indications are pointing to a widespread severe weather event at least for western KY. At this time, there has been no official mention of a widespread event for central and eastern parts yet, but a real possibility exists. You know the song and dance. We will have to wait for computer models to chew on the data and spit out some possibilities.

In a situation like this, I like to look at analogs, or past similar weather patterns/systems that align with the current thinking of the approaching storm system.

The NAM analogs for the period showed a few solutions.

One was confining the widespread severe weather south of the region, say, from Tennessee into Alabama and Mississippi.

Another showed the bulk of the severe weather hitting parts of southern Indiana.

Then, there was a particular troubling analog that showed central Kentucky getting hammered with widespread wind damage. This analog was November 9-10, 2000. Numerous reports of winds exceeding 70 mph and isolated tornadoes occurred along the main squall as it raced across Kentucky.

Let's see how the models digest the data. But be prepared for another round of severe weather. This has the look of a potentially widespread event that, in my opinion, combines all three solutions above, from Indiana through Kentucky and into the south. Timing, instability, upper level winds need to be fine-tuned yet.

Here's one look of the NAM model currently...

 

MS