Prologue to Winter Weather Forecast 2013/2014 REVISED

The last two winter seasons have been less than satisfactory for snow lovers here in Louisville and most of central Kentucky. Downright abysmal actually. However, change could be coming for the upcoming winter.

Persistent atmospheric patterns kept moisture to a minimum for the area during the 2012/2013 winter. Prior to last year, persistent atmospheric patterns kept temperatures warmer than average during that winter.

Will this winter be dominated by persistent atmospheric patterns? Most likely not. Let me explain.

I believe drought played a major role in the nation's weather patterns during the past two winters. Some areas of the country received substantial snow totals while others received little accumulations.

Severe droughts are a result of climatic patterns that often can influence or dictate weather patterns. They create subtle boundaries that may affect upper level winds. For example, storm systems driven by the upper level winds either go around these semi-permanent anticyclonic features that are a result of drought or its associated moisture may be sapped by the surrounding relatively drier air.

This year's drought situation has improved significantly over the South and Midwest sections of the U.S., an area where our weather systems tend to develop and attract our attention. Perhaps, this is an indication that the climate pattern has begun a transformation. That should increase variability in weather patterns across the country, especially for our region. Does that mean we here in Louisville will get more snow?

Increased variability will lead to weather systems behaving more normally this winter. In other words, expect a nice blend of cold spells and periodic warm events that could spawn severe weather. Look for a few systems to come out of the Rockies and find their way into the Ohio Valley.

As is usually the case in these parts, a battle ground for precipitation type will affect who gets what and how much. I believe it will be a more exciting winter than the previous ones. That's all I can really say about that.

MS