Severe Wx Potential This Week ***0415-0419***

Last week, severe weather affected parts of the state, primarily east of I-65. At least 12 storm reports were received, mainly for damaging winds.

One of those places in Kentucky affected by the high winds was in Montgomery County near Camargo. Quite a bit of damage associated with that wind event, peak gusts were estimated at between 85 and 95 mph. Though there were no findings of tornado damage, the high winds produced damage comparable to an EF-1 tornado.

This week, I look for a more active period of severe weather compared to last week. Already, I'm looking at analogs suggesting a much broader area that will be impacted by severe weather.

As far as Kentucky is concerned, most of our action should occur later this week as a potent cold front enters the region. The top 15 GFS analogs show this strong storm system producing severe weather across much of the south by then.

At just under 5 days out, I'm already looking at a 40% chance for severe weather somewhere in Kentucky. Last week, it was a 30 percent chance about 4 days out. So, the odds are definitely showing a higher likelihood for severe weather.

Just like last week, it's all about timing. Right now, it is difficult to pinpoint who has the best chance at seeing storms. I will defer to Tuesday's look at analogs and a closer look at model consensus by Wed/Thur.

All I can say right now is 'heads up' for later this week.

MS