The Climate Prediction Center has published its medium range and long range temperature and precipitation products for March. If you're hoping for spring-like conditions, well, the first part of the month is not looking too good.
The CPC updates its medium range outlooks often. So check the links below.
For the period covering March 1-9, below normal temperatures can be expected. In fact, probabilities within a range of 50-70% are highlighted. That's an unusually high confidence range.
Precipitation for the same period is expected to come in at below normal. Sounds right to me.
We look to be in a persistent northwest flow pattern which tends to keep the moisture and warmer air from reaching us via the Gulf of Mexico.
However, do not despair. The CPC provided its monthly outlook for March this past Thursday, the 21st.
Once this persistent cold pattern breaks down, the warmer air out west will overtake us. In fact, a persistent warm pattern looks to set in. But, along with the warmer temperatures will bring a better chance for more precipitation.
CPC's 6-10 Day Temperature Outlook
CPC's 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook
CPC's 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook
CPC's 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook
March 's 30-Day Temperature Outlook
March's 30-Day Precipitation Outlook
MS
Sunday, February 24, 2013
Tuesday, February 19, 2013
Yep, Another One of Those
Ohio Valley winter is dynamic, though at times it may seem static for most (aka no big snow).
Another storm system is ready to confound the weather pros again. However, the final outcome will result in rain.
Initial precipitation is going to be the tricky part. Apparently rain should be the dominant type; however, surface temperatures may be a problem for some.
A recent GFS analog and a NAM forecast support best chance for ice from Louisville to Cincinnati. I would place the best chance from Carrollton to Cincinnati. At least 0.1" ice accumulation is possible before surface temperatures warm above freezing.
Expect changes to the forecast as storm track data becomes more readily available.
MS
Another storm system is ready to confound the weather pros again. However, the final outcome will result in rain.
Initial precipitation is going to be the tricky part. Apparently rain should be the dominant type; however, surface temperatures may be a problem for some.
A recent GFS analog and a NAM forecast support best chance for ice from Louisville to Cincinnati. I would place the best chance from Carrollton to Cincinnati. At least 0.1" ice accumulation is possible before surface temperatures warm above freezing.
Expect changes to the forecast as storm track data becomes more readily available.
MS
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