I forgot to mention this a bit ago, but take a look at the dewpoint readings. At Louisville it's 19 degrees while at Bowling Green 56 degrees. At Covington near I-75, dewpoint is 23 while further down along I-75 at London, dewpoint is 54. Drier air is poised to move in rapidly behind the front while temps are expected to drop off sharply after sunset.
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It's been so tranquil lately, as I expected, that I haven't been giving much attention to the models. However, now is a good time to start checking on trends as there is talk about winter returning to the 'neighborhood'.
It appears our weather pattern will becoming a bit more unstable as early as late Sunday afternoon. The heaviest axis of precipitation, according to the latest models, should occur between Monday evening and Tuesday morning. Since we'll be on the 'warm' side of things, expect primarily rain with amounts approaching 1" in some locations. As the precip winds down, residual moisture in the form of drizzle or rain/snow mix may occur. However, I wouldn't expect a big deal as ground temps will be too warm to support anything 'sticking' around.
Of course, many of us will be keeping our eyes glued to the models because the colder air will not be too far away from our region. But, right now, it looks to be a liquid event for most of us. Now's a good time to start looking for additional trends.
Here's a look at some models:
12z GEM for Monday afternoon
Now, a look at the GFS 12z:
Also for Monday afternoon
And the NAM is just getting in on the action (12z)
And of course, keeping an eye on the cold air....
This is all for now. Have a nice day.
MS
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