Thankfully, did not have to report anything from my location in Valley Station (SW Jefferson county). Winds I would estimate at about 50mph. After the winds calmed significantly and the rains began to pick up, power lines began arcing in the distance, actually just around the corner where I live. Power blinked twice while the lines were touching, probably from a small limb dangling on a power line. However, some apparently have lost power. My area was actually hightlighted on the LGE/KU energy outage map, showing 58 customers without power, as of this update. Just about an inch has now been collected in my faithful rain gauge and still raining lightly right now.
http://stormcenter.lge-ku.com/default.html
***UPDATE***4:15am est
Storms are moving into the area. Hopefully, I'll be able to post after the brunt of this passes thru. I'm going into Storm Spotter mode. My first report will be to the NWS if needed. Later...
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***UPDATE***3:55am est
Storm reports coming out of Gibson county in SW Indiana. Reports of damage in Owensville and southern Princeton. Several homes damaged. Gas company has been requested to check for gas leaks.
Also in Gibson county: roof blown off brick building taking down power lines.
Dubois county in SW Indiana: trained spotter estimates winds at 65mph during last hour.
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***UPDATE***3:00am est
I've been studying the RADAR loop coming into SW Indiana. Quite an impressive bow echo with this. Winds could easily be hitting 70mph and the bowing segment is moving east at 60mph! IF this particular cell can maintain itself, I would not be surprised if Louisville or areas just north of the river become impacted by 5-5:30am. So far, it appears power outages will be likely with this cell. For those of you who have LG&E and KU energy, here is a power outage update.
http://stormcenter.lge-ku.com/default.html
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***UPDATE***2:35am est
Several Tornado Watch products in effect to my west and north. I have really been impressed by the winds this morning. Did anyone issue a wind advisory or even high wind watch for the area? Hmm, may want to think about that (lmk NWS)! I don't see it posted anywhere for the local area. Surprisingly, too, is the line that's been coming out of central Missouri into Illinois. Winds of 70mph quite common with this line causing much damage in and around St Louis.
OK. This just in. TORNADO WATCH now in effect for western KY and central KY to Frankfort.until 9am cst or 10am est. Things are really getting active. I hope people have their weather radios handy.
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***Brief Update***11:00pm est
Looks like storms are holding together fairly well along a dry line about to exit Oklahoma. Severe weather chances will rapidly increase once cap is completely eroded across Arkansas. Due to the timing of this, it appears onset of severe weather may be delayed at least a couple of hours than my previous thoughts. Therefore, expect western KY to see storms by 3-4am, central by 7-8am. All for now.
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Previous
More action than George Lucas' Star Wars trilogy, The Empire Strikes Back. Yes, another round of severe weather returns to the region and looks to give those who missed out on the severe weather last time a shot from the 'dark side'. In fact, as I was preparing this post, an alert came across that a Tornado Watch was being issued for parts of southern Kentucky and north-central Tennessee. I decided to follow the action. Wow! Already? I wasn't expecting the severe weather outbreak to begin so far east. Well, it really hasn't and I don't expect it to before midnight. The main action will be after midnight beginning in the western part of Kentucky.
I've been going over some of the most recent data. Let me present some of the most recent maps and then offer my thoughts.
First, one of those ingredients I talked about yesterday is dewpoint. Here is the latest map on that:
As I have mentioned before, I like readings to be above 55 degrees (severe weather can occur with readings below 50, just not very often).
This next map is a recent analysis of the wind shear vector from the surface to 1 km high. Anything above 20 can favor supercell development.
The same scenario applies to the 0-1km Helicity value that I pointed out yesterday. Again, these values have been off the chart! As you recall, the Little Rock AR NWS posted info about values above 300 help favor tornadic development.
My thoughts are as follows. As I post this, it appears that the cap is eroding across Arkansas at this hour (8:30pm est). Look for rapid development of thunderstorms. I'm surprised the SPC has not already issued a WATCH for parts of Arkansas yet and areas downstream to western TN and southeast MO. With that said, expect a squall line to eventually develop and race across the Mississippi river on the heels of a strong 60-70 kt jet. That could translate to about 50-65 mph winds at the surface for some locations along the line. Therefore, it will be difficult to time this thing. Current thinking is western KY 2am and central KY 5-6am. This is a very rough estimate. Better timing once storms really begin to fire.
More later.
MS
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