Flooding is Likely...

***445pm est***
If they can have success before dark, check out the LIVE storm chase coverage
http://www.severestudios.com/livechase
------------------------------------------
***415pm est***
Tornado WARNING for Jackson TN
---------------------
***3:15pm est***

This is the latest DEWPOINT readings. As a rule of thumb, I  look for dewpoints in excess of 55 degrees to help support severe weather chances. Of course, wind fields above the surface are playing an important role in this one. That's why I think places that receive sunshine better look out later!
Here's the latest visible satellite image (images after dark won't show up)

-----------------------------------
***UPDATE*** 2:20pm est
Rainfall totals thru 1:00pm est
Ft Campbell 1.43"
Owensboro 0.40"

Rainfall totals thru 12:00pm est
Louisville 0.14"
Bowling Green 1.29"
Lexington 0.41"
-----------------------------------
***MIKS PIKS UPDATE***12:00pm est
I've been adding some relevant web cams for today's expected severe weather show plus additional sites for heavy rain/storm reports.
------------------------------
***UPDATE***11:00am est
As you can tell, the heaviest rain totals are to the south. In fact, at my location in Valley Station (SW Jefferson county), I've recorded only 0.20". Nowcast mode has revealed some interesting developments. So far, the heaviest precip totals have been across NW Tennessee this morning with Doppler estimates of 3-5" already. That's a little farther south than my forecast thinking. I would have expected about an inch of rain here in Louisville by now. That could be good news. Perhaps lesser amounts anticipated here. Severe chances going up though for western KY. That could be bad news. Damaging wind will be the main threat but tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
-----------------------------------

Good Thursday...well, a wet Thursday.
Flooding is already taking a toll in NW Tennessee. At 3:04 am cst, Doppler estimates of 2-4" within a 3-hour window has occurred and an additional 1-3" is expected over the next 3 hours.in areas like Martin (see my SPECIAL piks list on the right), Paris, and Union City. In addition, these same areas are under a moderate risk for severe weather today and tonight.

Keep an eye on the totals for our region. Any storm reports as well.

 
Severe threat still exists downstate.
I'll be adding to this post throughout the day.
MS