I like the current model placement of moisture for the region. I thought the GEM handled this one more consistently than the NAM and GFS the past couple of days. A heavier axis of precip presently set up along and north of the Ohio River will continue to bring beneficial rains for them. As for the rest of us, a general half-inch or less should suffice.
I'm now directing my attention toward the weather system for later this week. Depending on the timing of things, some areas in our region could see some severe weather. First, I would like to mention that the SPC has something to say about storms later this week:
Here's their latest thinking...
AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEARS LIKELY ON THU/D4 FROM
ERN OK/NERN TX EWD ACROSS MUCH OF AR...SRN MO...NRN MS...CNTRL AND
WRN KY AND TN...AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING INTO FRI/D5 ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE MID ATLANTIC STATES...SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE POSSIBLE...INCLUDING TORNADOES AND VERY STRONG WINDS
IN ADDITION TO HAIL.
We'll see how this develops. According to the models presently, if any severe weather does break out, far southern and western parts of the state could be impacted. But as we all know too often, models change. So, we'll just have to wait and watch.
Regardless, without severe weather, heavy rain is expected regionwide, especially across parts of Kentucky. 1-3" of rain can be expected. As the GEM performed the best on this past system, I'm introducing a couple of the 12z runs:
and...
And don't forget what's been happening elsewhere. Minneapolis St Paul received a foot of snow from their blizzard and it's heading toward the Northeast U.S. Here are some additional snow and ice reports from the region.
http://mapcenter.hamweather.com/stormreports/2011/02/21/usnorthcentral.html
Watch the cold air filter in later tonight...
Could be a few flakes flying around.
Have a good one.
MS
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