Lexington BG Airport Thermometer...What's This?

First, let me be the first to say to the naysayers out there who have whined and complained about Lexington's Bluegrass Airport thermometer, that it runs hotter than other areas, it's messing up the climatological record for the city of Lexington and the state of Kentucky for that matter, oh my, well it's time to put it to rest.

I don't want to hear anymore complaining, whining, crying, bashing, whatever about this issue at Lexington concerning this thermo-gate conspiracy.. For the months of December and January, Lexington recorded back to back months of temperatures in the Top Ten Warmest for those months. Compared to the Kentucky Mesonet site in Fayette county just down the road, in January, the reading at BG Airport was nearly 2 degrees higher than the Mesonet site, and in December, the reading at Lexington's Bluegrass Airport averaged 43.9 degrees, while the Mesonet site in Fayette county, the reading was 41.7, again a difference of about 2 degrees.

So far this month, through the 23rd, the average temperature at Lexington's Bluegrass Airport, the official reading for the city of Lexington, has been 36.7 degrees, just 0.5 degrees above normal for the month. How does this rank comparatively with the rest of the state. Well, everyone else is running at least 2 degrees above normal.

In addition, and I had to put this one in its own paragraph to make it stand out, compared to the Kentucky Mesonet site, in Fayette county, yes in Kentucky, the average temperature has been 37.4 degrees, a difference of 0.7 degrees WARMER than the Bluegrass Airport.

Did some get their wish and the thermometer was finally replaced or relocated? Well, I haven't read or heard anything yet. But, this appears rather significant. Stay tuned.

MS

Spring Cleaning (the blog)

I think it's about time for me to update the blog, maybe one day the entire blog page itself. For now, you may notice a few changes already. In my Miks Mix sidebar, for example, there are no listings or sites that I recommend. They either have relocated a web page or a site is having problems loading successfully. In addition, I have other outdated links I need to remove. Of course, some sites are seasonal, like *teleconnections*, *national snow cover map*, and so forth. Those, too, I will be removing, but they will be back next winter.

I will try to recommend fresh sites during the upcoming severe weather season. Some of my favorite news stations with quality meteorologists will be the KFOR news station out of Oklahoma City. I am also a follower of local scanner reports. If the weather is rather benign locally, I will follow what's happening elsewhere and give you the latest updates as it becomes available. These may include severe weather happenings, earthquakes, that kind of thing.

Hopefully, I can tap into some other social media sites as well. Of course, at times, it's difficult to winnow out the sensational from the realistic thus I might need to be judicious in what I post on the MikJournal site.

There you have it. Be looking for some of these updates over the next month or so. Have a good weekend, everyone.

MS

MikJournal Weekly Outlook (Feb 10 - 16, 2020)

A review of last week indeed proved accurate with above normal temperatures and above normal precipitation. The average precipitation of 2-4" was pretty good. Still, areas of southeast Kentucky got in on nearly 6" of rainfall. But, other areas like my place southwest of Louisville only saw about 0.50". Snowfall was even reported on a region wide basis. Still, if you want to count a general 1-3" as a significant winter storm, I couldn't blame you. For much of us, we doubled our snowfall totals for the snow season and yet, we are still WAY BELOW average, even running behind last year's dismal total around this time.

It was a very impressive storm system. Low pressure readings in the 970ish millibars produced high winds along the east coast, in some cases exceeding 70 to 80 mph. In addition, the rainfall aspect lived up to the hype, especially in the southeastern part of Kentucky and northeast TN, as serious flooding contributed to a few record crests for area rivers along with dangerous mudslides. The snowfall was quite impressive as well with Oklahoma City receiving 4.6".

Looking forward to the week ahead, any winter threats look minimal. Try not to get too excited over any flurries. Ok? But, don't despair. More heavy rain is forecast for the week ahead. Yay! The WPC 1-7 day QPF forecast has our region in 2-5" shadings, with the heaviest amounts in areas that don't need anymore rainfall.

Temperatures should average above normal for the week. However, there will be a couple of cold days. Highest readings will be today and next weekend, with a period of cool to outright cold for Wednesday to Friday.

Teleconnections support a mild, wet week again. PNA is forecast to go from (-) to (+) by week's end. AO looks positive, NAO positive, and EPO from neutral to slightly positive.

The CPC outlook has our region in Above Normal for both temperatures and precipitation for February 15 - 23. Therefore, at this time, February is well on its way to finishing warmer than normal, making a clean sweep for the meteorological winter months, possibly to likely a Top Ten Warmest Winter season.

This will inherently nullify and humiliate some regional 'forecasts' that this winter would be subjected to periodic Arctic outbreaks along with above normal snowfall. Maybe next year, offer to provide the popcorn, on the house, to anyone interested in the next Winter Forecast Entertainment or show. Obviously, I'm not impressed. I'm actually embarrassed that our local Mets have to subject themselves to such humiliation for the sake of ratings and provide a 3-4 month forecast for nothing to go on but a 'dart throw in the dark' guess.

MikJournal Moment

An exhaustive, yet incomplete summary of this most recent storm event. Although not much of a wind maker here locally, I was surprised by the wind gusts, with many non-thunderstorm related reports. And of course, the heavy rain reports along with some decent snow amounts.

Here you go from the WPC's Storm Summary page...

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/nfdscc1.html

Heavy Rainfall Update...

picture courtesy of WYMT.com

Mudslide in Leslie county on US421. Nobody other than the driver was on the bus, and the driver was not injured.

Knoxville now at 5.43" for this event, surpassing 12" for the year already.
Our friends in Knox, Bell, Harlan, and Letcher counties are also reporting serious flooding and dangerous mudslides.

In Claiborne county in Tennessee, just across from Middlesboro KY, a scanner report of a 70-yr old driver inside the car that is floating in flood waters off Old Hwy 63.

The Cumberland River at Barbourville KY in Knox county is expected to reach the upper end of the Moderate stage possibly Major stage. It should surpass the 37.53' crest of February 12, 2018.

ALL floodgates to be closed in Harlan. Will Puckett doing a nice job of reminding drivers NOT to drive through floodwaters. If one must travel in Harlan and is safe to do so, the Harlan Baptist church is taking affected residents.
---------------------------------------------
As of 10:30 this Thursday morning, rainfall totals are approaching 5" at the Knox and Harlan counties Mesonet sites. Middlesboro, in Bell county is also approaching 5" for this event.

I am currently listening to scanner reports for any additional mudslides and/or water rescues from Letcher, Pike, and Knox counties.

Knoxville TN has received nearly 4.5" for a yearly total that is closing in on the 12" mark.

MikJournal Weekly Outlook for 02/03/2020 - 02/09/2020

Welcome to a NEW segment for the MikJournal. Each Monday, I'll post an outlook for the rest of the week. This is not a detailed forecast, but it is more of a synopsis about what to expect. I'll look at teleconnection patterns, at least for a little while longer, the Euro 850 mb temperatures for the week ahead, WPC Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts (QPF), Climate Prediction Center for temps and precipitation beyond our current week. So, let's hop into it.

First, a review of last week. Temperatures for our region for the last 7 days averaged above normal. Precipitation came in at modest levels, perhaps a bit below normal. Teleconnection patterns suggested a warmer than normal regime. The CPC had our region in an above normal shading for temperatures and a near normal to below normal shading for precipitation. Pretty much spot on.

What can we expect for the week ahead?

The teleconnection patterns...AO+ trending toward neutral, NAO+, EPO-, and PNA- as is currently the forecast. Looking at the combination, this would suggest an above normal temperature pattern despite a brief period of colder weather. Most of the cold should remain well north of our region.

However, the PNA- suggests trough west, ridge east. Well sort of. The combination of Pacific air and Gulf of Mexico air promises to deliver a wet week ahead, along a cold front. The WPC has our region in a 2-4" range of precipitation, again, mostly rainfall.

Whaaaa? Does this mean some of us may get snowfall too? This pattern does not suggest a significant winter storm. I'm telling it to you straight. I don't sugar coat it, or snow-coat it. However, it is possible to get some grassy accumulations this week. Not a big deal. Get over it. It is still winter albeit a dismal winter for snow lovers.

The Euro does suggest an overall warmer than normal pattern as well for the next 10 days. The CPC has its outlook for the 6-10 days and 8-14 days. For the 8th - 12th, above normal temperatures and precipitation. For the 10th - 16th, above normal temperatures and precipitation are expected.

There you go. Have a good week everyone. Look for additional posts this week as it pertains to our expected rain event and any winter issues we might incur as well.

MS

Another Top Ten Finish...

Lexington recorded its 2nd consecutive Top Ten Warmest entry by tying for 7th warmest January on record. December 2019 finished 8th warmest December.

Louisville barely missed Top Ten Warmest status last month, but came back strong in January to finish 7th Warmest for the month.

Other regional locations that finished January in Top Ten fashion include Paducah (9th), Jackson (6th), and London (t-6th),

Frankfort and Bowling Green were also well above normal but missed Top Ten recognition.

Interestingly, the month of January started out very wet, and all indications were pointing toward a top ten wettest month regionally. But, monthly rainfall totals, while still well above normal, did not live up to the hype...kind of like the winter so far.

MS