18ZNAM continues to show abundant moisture placement over the region. It looks to me that the NAM wants to take this storm system a tad north. Therefore, becoming more apparent to me that Louisville and adjacent areas could receive the heaviest axis of rain. In addition, severe chances could be going up for those areas I mentioned yesterday i.e. Hopkinsville and perhaps Bowling Green. Of course, it depends on the timing of any t'storm passage. The 5-6" amounts I mentioned earlier is NOT a sure bet as instability related to t'storm development may not materialize. But, I still cannot rule it out at this time. Otherwise 3-4".
----------------------------------------------
***Quick Update***12:00pm est
Latest 12zNAM still putting out close to 3" for Louisville. I still think these amounts are not enough!
Due to the expected slow movement of the warm front, expect some isolated areas of 5-6", especially where t'storms develop and keep 'training' over the same area. I'm expecting this to occur somewhere between Louisville and Munfordville as the north/south line.
---------------------------------------------
Good early Wednesday. Just wanted to mention a couple of things before I head for the hay.
SPC has upgraded many locations to our southwest to a MODERATE RISK for severe weather with possible strong tornadoes.
During the day, I will be posting some SPECIAL sites to the blog. Just check on the right hand side under MIKS PIKS and follow the action!
By the way, it's been fairly quiet so far this year, in terms of severe weather.
However, for many in our region, the potential for flooding rains will be our primary concern.
Here's the latest from the HPC:
My current thinking on precip totals is still in the developing stage but do believe where I live here in Louisville will get AT LEAST 3".
More later. Keep checking back in for those SPECIAL sites I'll be posting today.
MS
No comments:
Post a Comment