The 'Big One' First Call For Snowfall

Ok. Maybe not that big...yet? I've collected enough data and made a few gut checks. Some may disagree with my methodology, but this has worked before in the past (just not very good these past couple of events).

The above map highlights an important number that will give us some idea concerning the all-important snow ratio. Look at the readings at the 850mb level for southern Kentucky. Temps at that level will be running in the -10 degree C range. This suggests to me that snow ratios will range between 16 and 20:1, pretty high. Will that translate at the surface? The cold column does support at the very least a 16:1 ratio with surface temps in the mid 20's. Therefore, I'm leaning toward a blend of those two, calling for an 18:1 ratio.

As far as liquid equivalent, the models seem to be putting out only 0.13-0.17" for the southern part of the state. Therefore, I'm not expecting more than 2-3" for the southern tier counties of Kentucky.

Since we'll be going into nowcast mode, look for the trend to shift a little more north. Any little deviation will raise snow accumulations, but probably not by much.

Here's my First Call:

Louisville         1"<
Lexington        1" or a little more
Bowling Green 2-4"
Jackson           1-3"

Plus, don't forget. You can also chime in and say what you think will happen by clicking on the amount you believe Bowling Green AND Jackson Kentucky, combined, will receive for this storm system. The 'Fun Poll' is just to the right of this page.

More updates later as needed. Otherwise, have a good evening.
MS