Your Monday 01/23/12

What a day of storm activity yesterday. It was like listening to some dramatic radio reading at times as I was tuned into the Skywarn spotter network in Arkansas and again in Kentucky. Sporadic wind damage was reported all along an advancing squall line that prompted numerous tornado/severe thunderstorm warnings.

The nature of the damage in Kentucky and southern Indiana would seem to indicate possible brief tornado spinups at times, but more likely intense winds mixing down to the surface. I don't know if the NWS offices will conduct any official surveys but would be nice to know if any of the damage was tornadic in nature.

Now, are we ever going to talk more and more about winter? It just seems that for every cold snap we get, there is a shot of spring that overtakes the cold. It almost seems like late February type of weather instead of the coldest part of the winter.

Well, the CPC seems to indicate an easing of the blowtorch winter we've had so far this season. After above normal temperatures expected during the 6-10 day period, more normal readings for this time of year are expected afterward. Our longest stretch of negative NAO readings could be coming toward the beginning of February. This is a trend I've been noticing since it first caught my eye almost a week ago.

While it does not represent an honest to goodness long spell of cold and snow, there will be opportunities for appreciable snows toward the end of this month going forward into the first part of February. For those who have given up on this winter, it only takes one 'big snow' to make up lost ground. The month of February is the month that I forecast for the most snow.

I'm kinda wondering if people enjoy 20+ inches of numerous ankle biters or 20+ inches that includes a couple of  big snows of at least 6" or so. It may be a stretch at this point, but that kind of window will be open. But, the models will have to come up with something for us to work with. Right now, if you go by the models, things don't look too promising.

The silver lining is that storms will be on the map by then. Therefore, adjustments can be made as upper air data becomes more readily available. And if the cold will be around, then that could work in our favor. Let's hope so.

Have a good week.
MS