I've chosen to reveal graphics for this time period as I feel now is the best time to begin looking at how the next storm system will affect our region. Any time prior to this point is mostly speculation. At least, this day 5 map is somewhat less speculative.
Things are already changing in terms of storm placement and I expect a few more changes before the weekend is over. Here are the GEM and GFS forecast models in that order....
First, storm placement of the low is farther west at day 5 than previous runs, especially evident in the GEM run. The GFS is less westward but still apparent.
Therefore, according to these models, BOTH suggest mostly rain and not much snow thus no phasing for our region. In fact, temperatures may be flirting with the 50's as the rain comes on down according to both models. Then, by Thursday evening, colder air will really take hold as temps crash below freezing along with snow showers or flurries possible.
But, things can still change; however, the closer we get to the event, the more accurate the models will become, supposedly.
***On a side note, the ECMWF wants to try and phase the system over our region. Don't get too excited over this scenario just yet. Keep an eye on their track over the next 2 days. There will most likely be changes. At least there's hope.***
More updates later.
MS
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